UTK 7/24/20
Opening Day-ish - Kershaw, Harvey, Soto and more
Opening Day doesn’t feel like Opening Day. In a normal year, we’d be arguing that Opening Day should be a national holiday. This year, we’re just glad it’s here at all.
Early on Opening Day Eve, things went a bit sideways for MLB. Juan Soto tested positive for COVID and was immediately quarantined. The rest of the team, who he’d been around for 48 hours as testing happened? That’s less clear. Soto is asymptomatic, but that doesn’t make him non-contagious. Discussion that Soto might have a false positive is only going to confuse people and cost some trust inside the locker rooms.
The worry for baseball is that we end up with just this situation. A player tests positive, spreads it amongst the team, and you end up with five, ten, thirty players on the COVID IL. The 48 hour turnaround is the problem and some teams are going as far as acquiring testing equipment to try to figure this out.
(Quick thought — all teams should do this, and they should offer free or low-cost testing to their communities. Acquire more tests than you can use, make it a charity, and figure out the economics later.)
Baseball doesn’t look normal - empty stadiums, cardboard fans, and kneeling teams - but the game itself did. Angel Hernandez missing calls felt oddly comforting and watching Gerritt Cole, Max Scherzer, Jonny Cueto, and Dustin May flat dealing out there in the 90s reminded us that we’re watching a modern game again. Soto’s a reminder that this isn’t going to go perfectly, but it’s going to go.
Now, on to the injuries:
Clayton Kershaw SP LAD (strained back)
#KershawDay didn’t last into the night. Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his Opening Day start, placed on the IL, and Dustin May was called over to take his spot. This wasn’t a secret and having May on the same schedule as Kershaw makes it sound like this was anticipated for longer than just Tuesday, when reports said Kershaw felt the tightness. So of course I picked him to win the Cy Young yesterday.
Kershaw’s back is becoming Sandy Koufax’s elbow, a weak spot that he pitches through brilliantly, but is likely to take years off his career. The Dodgers and Kershaw have never been specific about the issue, but we know from the chronic nature and the way they’ve treated him what it likely is. The team has consistently called the injury a strain, which would indicate it’s muscular, but that’s very unlikely to recur over and over without some major weakness. What they’re likely dealing with is spasm and pain from some underlying issue. A flareup causes spasm, pain, and a reduction in function, though each time it’s happened, Kershaw’s been able to come back and pitch effectively.
The downside of this is that it keeps happening. Kershaw has tried to avoid surgery, though it has been discussed as early as 2015. That again points to some kind of nerve issue or impingement rather than a purely muscular injury. There are lots of rumors that Kershaw injured himself in the weight room. Loading up Kershaw’s back doesn’t seem like a good idea, but balance that with the knowledge that the Dodgers have one of the top medical staffs out there. Could this be a JJ Watt situation, where he was just doing too much? It’s certainly possible.
The risk/reward of Kershaw is about as high on both sides as it comes, which makes having that great medical staff pretty key. We’ll have to see how they minimize any absence of Kershaw, though they do replace him with Dustin May, the kid who throws 99 on the black. Yes, depth is going to count this season.
Marcus Stroman SP NYM (strained calf)
“Torn calf” isn’t a great reason for going on the IL, but Marcus Stroman told the media it was very minor. “Super minor setback” is his quote. Let’s assume this is correct and that the Mets are just being cautious here, making sure that something “super minor” doesn’t become an extended absence. That’s reasonable, but it certainly remains somewhat worrisome. Even if this is super minor, the strained calf at this stage of the season reads badly. It could be the kind of burst injury we’ve seen, which would be surprising given the video we regularly saw of Stroman throwing during the pause.
The injury is to his land leg and Stroman states that he only feels pain when he runs. (Someone’s going to bunt in front of him.) This should be a quick 10 days (with the retro) and Stroman might only miss one turn through. On the other hand, this is worrisome for the injury itself and the effect it might be having on Stroman’s kinetic chain, which carries a lot of force for his size.
Edwin Rodriguez SP BOS (infection/complications)
While Juan Soto got the notice, it’s Eduardo Rodriguez that is worrying medical staffs and players alike. When it was announced he’s been shut down indefinitely due to COVID complications despite negative tests, my DMs exploded. The Red Sox aren’t detailing what the complications are and with COVID, we simply have no information to go on. This could be anything from general soreness and fatigue to blood clots, so there’s just no way of putting any timeline on this until we have more information.
The shortened season makes this kind of move more difficult, but this Red Sox team is showing that it’s going to do what they think is right and deal with the consequences, from a new manager to decisions like this. You have to respect that. If Rodriguez misses significant time, the Sox are going to get creative to fill his slot as they don’t have a lot of easy options. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get very creative soon.
Jake Odorizzi SP MIN (strained back)
Kershaw isn’t the only sore back around the league. Jake Odorizzi came out of his sunday scrimmage with a sore lower back and will hit the IL. It’s a retro move, so he could be back as soon as next week, according to the Twins. The schedule means they won’t need a fifth starter, so he could just slot back in, taking the rest and rehab time. It’s a smart move by a very smart staff.
Odorizzi is a guy I’ve watched since he was a high school pitcher and at 30, man time flies. He’s always had every skill except durability, so this kind of early season soreness is a bit worrisome. Assuming Odorizzi comes back on time and pitches well, we can chalk this up as a simple Twins-type move to protect their players. They’ve been aggressive with rest and with proactive moves like this for a while, but Rocco Baldelli seems to have amped it up more.
Matt Harvey SP KC (no injury)
I saw someone say “Matt Harvey has been out for a year. You can’t just come back.” That’s exactly what every minor league pitcher is doing right now! The time off is kind of a red herring. In this case, it’s what Harvey has done with the time that is more important. He’s 31. Let’s assume he’s in good shape and as much as is possible, the rest and time away has healed him up.
What we haven’t heard is that he’s been locked in a gym somewhere or working with some pitching guru. We haven’t heard that his velocity is back or seen it in some late night Instagram post. That’s not to say he hasn’t, but if he was, don’t you think someone might have mentioned it? Oakland, Toronto, the Angels, and Cincinnati have all passed on Harvey’s services in the past year and Kansas City appears to be calling on him more because of illness to Jakob Junis and Brad Keller.
Essentially, he’s a lottery ticket. Maybe something clicks and he gets back to some semblance of where he was just a few years ago. More likely, he’s just a fill-in for the Royals and maybe goes to the end of the season in some sort of sixth starter/swingman role. I hope he succeeds, but I’m not counting on it. The first sign will be what kind of velocity he shows. Anything north of 92 is a plus. If he’s back at the touch 95 he was at in Cincinnati, he can be useful.
(Late reports are that this is essentially a stash move for next year, which makes no sense to me.)
Quick Cuts:
The Tigers announced they’ll use Michael Fulmer as an opener. It’s a bit of a misuse of the term. Essentially they’re piggybacking him with Tyler Alexander in order to limit his innings. I like the creativity, just not the terminology … I just learned there’s a player named Chadwick Tromp and 2020 doesn’t seem so bad anymore. That’s a Gatsby character right, or one of Fitzgerald’s short stories? No? He’s a Giants catcher who’s dealing with some hamstring issues? Close enough for me … The Cubs are saying it will take Jose Quintana until mid-August to be ready. I think if he sticks to his schedule, which starts with a pen next week, it could be a bit quicker … Nate Pearson didn’t make the roster in a pure service time play? That’s poo.