UTK 7/20/20
Opening Week, Biometrics, Rendon, Heaney, Brewers and more
I spend a lot of time thinking about baseball and injuries, but a couple articles bubbled up this weekend that got me thinking a lot about the future of baseball. The first is about the new intersection of gambling and sports. We’ve gone zero to sixty in terms of gambling since the downfall of PASPA, which is only a few years back. The infrastructure is built, but not nationalized yet, though I expect that to happen quickly. (I think gambling and marijuana, as well as other “vice taxes” will become the easy way to pay for COVID-19 shortfalls.) But how far do we take it? This article from The Hollywood Reporter talks about the use of biometric data in gambling. I think we’re more likely to see that kind of data first in broadcast, but this is an interesting use case. US sports are well behind already in most performance areas, so this is a chance to catch up in a new, important area.
On the other hand, Elon Musk’s other company … no the other one … no, the other other one … has put out it’s first usable AI, called GPT-3. It writes text and does some coding. We’ve already seen AI used to do game stories, but while GPT-3 and it’s descendants will surely put even more writers out of work, it also might allow us to do more with the rush of biometric data discussed above. Most humans aren’t very good at looking at seas of numbers and finding things there and the subset of those that work in sports is even smaller. Imagine an AI that could generate pitch sequences or see biometric changes to act as an early warning system. We’re in early days, but those days can move fast, as we’ve seen. Standing still isn’t an option, so watch these trends.
For now, we’re in this world, so let’s get to the injuries:
Anthony Rendon 3B LAA (strained oblique)
We’re still seeing a lot of “burst rotational” injuries and the league-wide increase is showing that while teams tried to do what they could to monitor players, the fact is that burst is the most difficult thing to replicate in any sport. Anthony Rendon has a “tight oblique”, which is likely a low-grade sprain. The Angels are smart to rest him in hopes of minimizing time lost. The downside is they can’t keep him from needing to do the exact thing that caused the problem in the first place. Rendon has to swing - and hard - and he has to throw. Well maybe. At least with the latter he could DH, but the Angels’ lineup isn’t the most flexible with Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols.
I wouldn’t expect Rendon to miss much time with this, if any, nor do I think it will have a major effect. The downside here is a recurrence and extended missed time, where a month is half the season. David Fletcher is kind of a Ben Zobrist type, so he’s the likely fill-in for anything Rendon does miss.
Giovanny Gallegos RP STL (infection)
Giovanny Gallegos is in an odd position. He’s not young. He doesn’t have a defined role. He doesn’t throw super hard or have a wipe out pitch. Yet here he is, likely the closer for the Cardinals while Jordan Hicks sits out the season and Carlos Martinez tries to get back to starting. Except Gallegos was exposed to COVID-19 and he’s well behind where he needs to be. There’s not a lot of stamina needs here, but let’s assume a few days of throwing isn’t going to be enough. Gallegos could end up just another bullpen arm - necessary, but fantasy irrelevant.
A lot of people have forgotten the three-batter rule amongst all the other weirdness of the 2020 season, so a pitcher like Gallegos who is good against both sides is going to have increased value, but that value is undefined by role. LOOGYs are dead, so now we need some cute acronym for what it is this type of pitchers do. The smart thing for the Cards to do is to let him get ready on his own time, then use Gallegos in the highest leverage innings possible, no matter the inning and to keep him out of the defined closer role. Ryan Helsley is the likely next arm up for the saves.
Nick Castellanos OF CIN (back spasms)
Nick Castellanos is another of the players still dealing with back soreness — I’ll have a lot more on the overall condition in the next edition of UTK — and was not able to get on the field Sunday as expected. The Reds still think he can be ready for Opening Day but this is one of many cases that might be affected by the expanded rosters and limited player pool. The Reds have several options for his spot and since they wouldn’t necessarily need to do an IL stint, they can keep Castellanos on a day-to-day level as long as their medical staff says he’s close. There is worry about recurrence, but this doesn’t look serious or long term. It’s one of those “just enough” injuries that can make or break a season, even a weird one.
Andrew Heaney SP LAA (back spasms)
The Angels are a bit like one of those fantasy teams where the owner just won’t draft pitchers early and tries to piece something together. MLB teams can’t stream starters or find valid guys on the waiver wire, so the strategy has some holes unless the team is also developing starters. The Angels haven’t done that either. Andrew Heaney is the titular ace, but he’s had health issues - elbow and shoulder - over the past two seasons and is starting this one off with back spasms.
The lefty’s big drop-off in workload from last season is one that has a very bad pattern. Going from over 175 innings to below 100 - as primitive as innings are - is one we don’t often seen with a good bounce back. It’s also a worry that Heaney’s workload management over the pause wasn’t as good as hoped. Heaney says he’ll be ready for his start against the Athletics later this week, so we should see some sort of bullpen early this week as a gauge. Watch to see that Heaney’s velocity is at his normal 92 mph range and hope that Julio Teheran can ramp up to a healthy start quickly, or this Angels season could get bad early.
Ryan Braun DH MIL (general soreness)
“General soreness.” That’s usually reserved for a player who’s older and breaking down, and yes, that describes Ryan Braun at this stage. He’s been given a gift with the DH slot — just wonder how much Bud Selig’s move to the NL cost Braun — and with the extended roster. The Brewers still expect Braun to be in the lineup later this week, but there did seem to be some hesitation in public comments with Craig Counsell and with private talks with Brewers sources.
Again, the extended roster can step in here. It’s easy to slot anyone into the DH slot without pushing Braun to the IL. Playing a man down from 30 is easy when so many teams are willing to do it a week or more from past 25-man rosters. The real question here is whether Braun can play at a near-everyday level, even at DH, or whether he’s going to need so much treatment and rest to make that a burden. We simply don’t know yet, though my sources seem positive on the longer term given Braun’s general health over his career and physical condition as a 36-year-old.
Keston Hiura 2B MIL (arm soreness)
If Braun is fading, Keston Hiura is ascendant, aside from his arm that is. Hiura, a plus infielder, has been taking Braun’s DH spot (and would be the likely fill-in if Braun isn’t ready) while dealing with what the Brewers are calling “arm fatigue.” This one just sounds fishy and talks with sources say that this is more than simple tired and into soreness and pain, though they don’t yet have a hard diagnosis. That tells us it’s not something simple. The Brewers have a top medical staff and they could figure out a shoulder or elbow issue, or send Hiura for an MRI if they thought it was structural.
Key to this is Hiura’s history — he was a first round pick despite a worrisome elbow injury and was thought to possibly need Tommy John surgery at several points while at UC-Irvine. He didn’t and quickly burned through the minor leagues. If this were a recurrence of an elbow sprain, it’s precisely the kind of thing that Hiura and the Brewers would understand.
My guess - and this is just a guess - is that Hiura’s throwing mechanics just overwhelm his arm for whatever reason. He hasn’t had a full breakdown, but I know the Brewers made cleaning up his arm action a priority, until they decided to push him to second to save his arm from third. We’ll see whether it might be too much for even that.
Lourdes Gurriel OF (strained oblique)
Another oblique strain? Lourdes Gurriel is a big swinger, so a rotational injury is no surprise if he didn’t manage his workload and hurt himself in getting back to max-energy bursts, as it appears happened. We don’t yet have a stat that shows just how hard someone swings, so “big swinger” is anecdotal, but telling. He’s due to take batting practice early this week and if that goes well, he should be fine, though obliques always have something of a high recurrence risk. A source tells me Gurriel’s case was targeted early and they may have used injections to help heal him up, which is quickly becoming the norm with this and a few other injuries.
Gurriel ended up with nice numbers, but don’t forget he was sent down to Buffalo in May, largely because lower body injuries were keeping him from being effective. His stint in the minors was short and focused on getting him into game shape and maintaining his knees and legs, so we have to wonder whether he’s got a similar issue, just a bit higher.
The Jays may end up with something of a downside when they’re forced to play outside of Rogers Centre. Teams in new facilities, even brand new stadiums, often show an uptick in injuries, though they tend to have quick acclimation times. The same should hold true, assuming the Jays have one single home, even a shared one. I’m also very curious why the players rejected Buffalo. A majority of their current players have been through there, so was the facility or amenities not up to snuff, or was this simply “MLB Park or bust”?
Quick Cuts:
A reminder that UTK will be free through August 1. Please share with friends! … Christian Walker stayed behind from the team’s trip to keep up treatment on a low-grade groin strain. If he can’t go, Kevin Cron is dealing with a hamstring strain. Jake Lamb would be next up, but even a 30-man roster only has so much flexibility … Gio Urshela had a weird looking issue on Friday that the Yankees never fully explained. He walked off the field with an AT, but all the team has said is “he’s fine”. We have to hope whatever happened was transient and doesn’t recur, which is always a bit worrisome … The Tigers appear close to a decision on Michael Fulmer. He’s 16 months post-TJ and should be ready, though he has not yet pitched in game action … Jordan Zimmermann has a significant flexor strain in his forearm and will miss most, if not all of the season … Evan Longoria has an oblique strain and will start taking swings early this week. The Giants don’t think he’ll need the IL, but will keep the option in place … Nice look at the big changes Robbie Ray has made. These changes are hard to do.
