UTK 7/16/20

Ending innings, deGrom, Buxton, and more

Usually in these intros, I’ll discuss an issue that is interesting to me, or point out some overarching pattern, or note some research that recently came to my attention. This one’s going to be slightly different. Can we please quit using innings pitched for anything besides some sort of counting stat? As a measure of fatigue, it’s terrible. An inning could be three pitches or thirty and tells you nothing about how it happened. Pitch count is better, workload is better still, and if we could create an holistic system that could integrate recovery and readiness, that’d likely be close to the best we can do.

Yet time and again, I hear about innings limits, inning counts, innings thresholds, and while some of it is simply the habit of using the terms, it’s also a signal that someone might be about a decade behind.

Jacob deGrom SP NYM (strained back)

The Mets may not be sold yet, but part of the value is going to be whether a new owner can pay to build the organization up quickly - or tear it down for value in trades. A key to either strategy is having the pitching staff healthy. Noah Syndergaard is already down for the season, so losing one more of their keys, let alone Jacob deGrom would be brutal. deGrom came out after just one inning and many noted his pitching arm seemed to “hang” as he walked off. (You can see it at about 0:20 of the video below, as he heads to the dugout.)

The Mets medical staff said he had a sore back and that he was taken out as a precaution. There was word that he would head to an MRI on Friday, but that changed quickly this morning and he was sent for the imaging today. A source tells me that he had his back looked at, but while he was there, they also looked at his shoulder. This was less about a current problem as wanting to compare it to an earlier MRI, though it still feels a bit worrisome.

All reports are that deGrom showed no major issues on the MRI, so what we’re dealing with is a strained back, most likely. The Mets are likely to be very cautious with any return despite the timeline. What I’ll be looking for is how quickly deGrom can get back to throwing. The longer the downtime, the more of an issue it will be to get his workload at the right level. No one knows how anyone will handle this season, but the Mets may need to get very creative early in the season with their pitching.

Ty Blach RP BAL (Tommy John surgery)

There had been no major arm injuries on Monday, but maybe I shouldn’t have said it out loud. Seemingly seconds after I hit send, Ty Blach was diagnosed with a sprained elbow and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Not only is this a tough injury for him - he has a chance of breaking camp with the Orioles with the expanded roster - but the timing is going to be problematic as well, for Blach or anyone else who has Tommy John going forward in this abbreviated 2020 season.*

This could end up a career ender for Blach, simply because it will be tough for him to get back on the field in ‘21 under standard timelines. I’m not sure who did the surgery, but Blach would have been the perfect candidate to try some of the new things that can speed the recovery. For the Orioles, who aren’t going to be competitive for at least those two seasons, it could have been an interesting experiment.

*It should mean nothing for players like Syndegaard, Chris Sale, and others who had Tommy John surgery in the spring. That’s a much more standard timeline for Tommy John surgery and rehab that we’ve seen far too many times before.

Justin Verlander SP HOU (post-strained latissimus dorsi)

At what point will Justin Verlander get the side-eye for being so good at an advanced age? I’m not suggesting anything untoward is going on, but we’ve seen very little evidence that Verlander is slowing down in any way at age-37 and players like Roger Clemens took a lot of heat for “not aging.” (Note that Clemens is still pitching!)

Verlander is coming back from a lat strain this spring that’s had plenty of time to heal up. He showed up in camp looking normal and put up five innings in his latest outing. There’s no reason to think the lat is any factor right now and that Verlander is anything aside from ace-level. I will be watching his velocity closely. It’s been a bit down, both before and after the lat issue in the spring and slightly down here in summer.

Verlander will have one more camp outing ahead of opening the season on July 24th and that’s just a good sentence to type. I’m not much for predictions, but I think Verlander gets his fourth no-hitter this season.

Byron Buxton OF MIN (mid foot sprain)

Byron Buxton is heading into his sixth season and while he’s been good and continues to show the tools that made him a top prospect, it’s hard to say he hasn’t been a disappointment either. Part of that has been injuries, but most of it is the fact his OBP is under .300. Right now, Buxton is dealing with a mid foot sprain, which is definitely the kind of injury that takes away his best skills.

The news isn’t all bad. Despite being carted off on Monday, Buxton is already walking without pain or assistance and will get back on the field as soon as this weekend. It appears the sprain was painful, but mild. The Twins medical staff will be cautious with him, I’m sure, but all med staffs will have to factor in that every game counts more this season. Talking to them around the league, they understand the balance is different and we’ll see a few more risks being taken.

Anthony Rizzo 1B CHC (back inflammation)

As I said on Monday, back injuries appear to be the biggest uptick around the league as rotational athletes see the same kind of “burst injuries” that we’ve seen in worldwide soccer. Anthony Rizzo’s injury is the same, but the Cubs are being more specific about the cause, calling it a “rib head inflammation.” Rizzo has dealt with this specific injury before and it hasn’t cost him significant time. The team isn’t sure if he’ll be ready to go on Opening Day and likely won’t make a decision on this until the last second. The Cubs have several options at first, but none of them help the team or replace Rizzo’s power. Back injuries that affect rotation do have lingering consequences so take a little power off Rizzo’s projections given this condition.

Masahiro Tanaka SP NYY (concussion)

Masahiro Tanaka is not out of the concussion protocol, but for all intents and purposes, he’s no longer limited. He just hasn’t gone through the final clearance, which he could do at any time. He’ll be throwing from a mound for the first time, which is allowed under the protocol. Assuming all goes well, he could have a simulated start next week and take a normal turn in the Yankees rotation as games start next week. The question now is only about workload, but the extended roster makes that no real issue for the Yankees.

From what could have been much, much worse, Tanaka has been almost the best case scenario in his return from being hit by the comebacker. There’s no reason to think there will be any further effect on Tanaka or the Yankees from this point forward, aside from the stamina/workload.

Quick Cuts:

Jose Quintana is doing well after surgery. He’ll make his first attempts to throw later this week after having the stitches out. How the nerve reacts will be key and this throwing session should give the Cubs a handle on where he is … Details are few, but Charlie Blackmon will start the season on the IL. He had COVID in June and hasn’t recovered enough to get back on the field. It’s unclear if that means he’s still testing positive, experiencing symptoms, or has some sort of deficit even after the infection cleared, nor is there a timeline for his return … The prodigal catcher, Robinson Chirinos, probably won’t be ready for Opening Day after spraining his ankle Monday. It’s not considered long term, but the Rangers have an oddly flexible roster, mostly due to Isaiah Kiner-Falafa playing so many positions and being the breakout player of camp … Brad Peacock is dealing with shoulder and neck injuries. Sources tell me this is similar to what held him back last year and there’s not a clear path to a healthy season for him. He’ll be a bullpen arm, but Dusty Baker tends to develop favorites quickly … Max Muncy has had a few at bats, but he’s yet to play the field for the Dodgers. He’ll ramp things up and see how his finger feels, but the Dodgers continue to think he’ll be at first on Opening Day … Things aren’t trending the same way for Brandon Belt. His heel is still keeping him off the field and while he’s not headed to the IL yet, it’s a possibility … I’ve said all along that this would go to subscription on Opening Day. Given how the billing system works, I don’t think it would be fair to charge anyone for July. Instead, that will start on August 1, so enjoy a little extra with your baseball.