UTK 6/18/21
Free Friday: Week of Pitching Crisis
Welcome to Free Friday. I hope you Mets fans have done your mindfulness meditations today and … who am I kidding, let’s get to it:
Jacob deGrom SP NYM (strained shoulder/strained forearm)
George Brett batted .390 in 1980. Many will remember that it was nearly a national watch as Brett stayed over .400 for a time late in the season, challenging both Ted Williams’ .406 and the round number. What many don’t remember is that Brett missed more than 40 games (117 on the season, though oddly, it doesn’t look like he DH’d at all) and that’s the point. It’s pretty hard to find that he sprained his ankle on a slide and then had a hand issue later in the season. We remember the historic chase for the number, a great season for a great player, but few will remember the injury or even the shape of Brett’s season, though it was actually key to it.
So what’s that have to do with Jacob deGrom, out early again, this time with shoulder soreness? Well, we’re nearly at the point where Brett sprained his ankle and with a series of issues up and down the kinetic chain - an unusual pattern, by the way - and deGrom is clearly missing at least innings, if not starts. But if someone writes a column about deGrom’s 2021 season, will it focus on deGrom’s chase of 1.12 or even the round 1.00, or will it focus on the injuries and that he pitched less games or innings than his historical and contemporary counterparts? My guess is, like Brett, it will be the former, within reason.
DeGrom will need to qualify for the ERA title, of course, which is about 100 innings from where he is now. That’s about 15 more starts at six innings each, something he’s been unable to do. So is it time for the Mets to get creative? Can deGrom go out for three innings 20 more times? Four innings? If so, can they shorten the rest? What’s the best way to get another 100 innings out of the best pitcher in the game, and is it worth it to try and get more?
That all remains to be seen, but the first order of business is getting past these multiple issues. A sore forearm wasn’t an issue, especially concerning after Tyler Glasnow’s complaints (see below) about the start previous to his injury. Going back down the kinetic chain - which runs up (from feet to hand/ball) or down (opposite) in terms of force production and diffusion - is neither good nor bad, though we tend to see movement in one direction. Elbow, shoulder, back is a common pattern. While the doctors deGrom saw say these aren’t directly and medically related, it’s hard to imagine that this isn’t an interrelated issue of pitching forces.
Shoulders are more difficult and complex than elbows and while we’ve gotten significantly better at prevention, starting with Dr Jobe’s exercises and the modern variants which include the near-universal use of J-Bands, we’re not good at fixing broken ones. Even muscular issues can be season enders and career changers, as we’ve seen with Corey Kluber over the last two seasons.
The Mets and their medical staff are at a crossroads. More deGrom is better, but how hard should they squeeze that orange? The simple move would be to IL him, rest a bit, and start back up, but what does that help? This isn’t a single issue and neither of the most recent were serious. There’s nothing that says a couple weeks off is good (and there’s some research that it’s bad.) If rest and treatment gets him back where he was at the start of the season, great, do that, but if not, the Mets are going to have to get creative.
I have ideas and if anyone wants to give my number to Steve Cohen, I’ll give you the Bill James line: “If a billionaire ever asks for my number, give it to them.”
Special thanks to J Daniel, who’s web site on 1980s baseball is well worth your time, especially when you need to know George Brett’s injury history.
Shane Bieber SP CLE (strained rotator cuff)
Somehow, the stuff I wrote about Shane Bieber didn’t come out on Monday. It’s my fault - I know I wrote some stuff, but it didn’t go out. I won’t blame the CMS here, but let’s catch up on last year’s Cy and his rotator cuff issue.
Shane Bieber has a subscapularis strain. The “subscap” is one of the four muscles that makes up the rotator cuff, which remains one of the hardest pitching specific structures to repair. That makes catching it early, when the strain is as small as possible and most likely to heal itself, is such a key.
If this muscle sounds familiar, it’s the same one that put Corey Kluber, former Clevelander, on the shelf as well. While it’s not an unusual injury, it has gotten less common over the years as shoulder exercises like Frank Jobe’s “Thrower’s Ten” and work with J-Bands has gotten near universal.
For Bieber, catching this strain early is huge and while the team says he’ll only be shut down for two weeks as it heals, that’s likely not going to give him enough time. This is going to extend, especially in the early periods when there’s such a risk of setback and re-injury. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this one go to or even past the All-Star break as the team heals him up and tries to figure out a way to prevent this.
I saw Bieber just a couple weeks ago in Cleveland and he looked great. His mechanics appeared to be solid - I was on the wrong side to get PitchAI video - and his stuff was good, with the White Sox blooping and bleeding for initial runs. I’d have to look back, but the ball barely got out of the infield on Bieber. He’s got that kind of stuff and even without the super high velocity of a deGrom, so he’s going to have to get serious - or more serious, really - about his prep work and making sure his arm’s brakes - the cuff - stays healthy over the short and long term.
Tyler Glasnow SP TBR (sprained elbow/strained forearm)
The one key to Tyler Glasnow, after he suffered both a low-grade UCL sprain and a flexor strain is the latter. The Rays didn’t have to say low-grade about the sprain because anything more serious than a very minor sprain usually necessitates reconstruction. They didn’t say anything about either and with the added complexity of the flexor issue, it could well impact the decision on surgery.
If the flexor is sufficiently compromised and might need surgical intervention itself, Glasnow’s going to have to wait until it heals before he’ll know if his UCL will hold up. That kind of delay could cost him all of the 2022 season as well, so it’s unlikely that he’d hold up if there wasn’t a real shot for him to come back. Even in the best cases, rehabs don’t always work, but if the Rays are looking at the calendar, those 15 month rehabs (and more) we’re seeing this year make June and October no real difference.
One thing in Glasnow’s rant really stood out to me. His discussion of being sore the next day … sound familiar? Isn’t that just what Jacob deGrom did in his last start? Isn’t deGrom going tonight, in the shadow of the sticky ban that Glasnow is blaming for his injury? I know what I’ll be watching tonight, with Statcast running on the iPad for spin rates. God forbid, but would the sticky ban survive injuries to two of the top pitchers in the game in the same week?
Reader Trevor F. asked if Glasnow’s increased use of the slider contributed. While it’s impossible to know how any pitch did or didn’t, aside from in the most basic workload increase numbers, the slider has something of a bad rap. For a major leaguer, the slider tends to be lower stress than the fastball. Simple velocity (or really, arm speed) is roughly linear to maximum torque. Thrown incorrectly, yes, any pitch can be more stressful but the data we have says that fastball tend to be the most stressful pitch. So overall, I’d say no, but it would be nice to know if that contributed to the flexor breakdown, which might have led to the UCL issue. We simply don’t know how it all interrelates and while the Rays do have biomechnical data, they’re not sharing.
Reader NYExpat had a comment yesterday asking for my opinion after Glasnow said he had to grip the ball tighter because it was powdery. Could that have contributed? Maybe and if so, we should see an increase in sprains and strains in a couple weeks as tack is removed. There’s no way to know this, but again, this is possibly part of the mechanism that protects the UCL and shows why flexor strains and UCL sprains are often interconnected.
Reader Joe B asks could MLB designate a standard sticky substance? Absolutely. Rosin exists already, as does the mud rubbed on balls before games. MLB owns the company that makes the balls, with all the issues that creates, so why not say you can use Blow Pops, but not Super Blow Pops, and sign them up as the official candy/sticky stuff of MLB? That would be on brand. I spoke with a competitive rock climber last week who said MLB should just use rosin, which comes in many grades, apparently.
UPDATE: Glasnow was placed on the 60-day IL, so he’s not coming back quickly. There’s been no official word on what therapies he’s had or considering, such as PRP, stem cells, or the like. As I said above, the tough part is that he’s not going to be able to throw a while. A few years back, I think it was Alex Cobb who had a sprained elbow, went to toss with someone, and immediately knew he was headed for surgery. Glasnow’s not going to have that moment for a while, but with the minor sprain, there’s a chance he can. This time is going to be a tough one with almost no news for the next 60 days, but a lot of work happening behind the scenes.
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Max Scherzer SP WAS (strained groin)
Easy for me to say that Max Scherzer’s groin strain is minor and that the Nationals went back and forth about whether or not to IL him before making the move. At some level, the Nationals are in a win-win here in terms of the decision. If they rest him, he’s likely to heal up and be better down the stretch. At worst, he comes back after the All Star Game (and likely well before) and they deal him after a couple heavily-scouted starts. At best, he heals up and is the ace they need as they try to right things, potentially bringing him back on a shorter deal to make another run.
Actually, the Nationals could do the ol’ Aroldis Chapman sign-and-trade and do both, though there’s been leaks out of what I have to assume is the Scherzer camp that he’d rather stay and is very picky about any possible destination. I don’t have insights into where those are, but would the Rays do a short term deal to fill the gap from Glasnow? I know that’s against their nature, but imagine a scenario where the Nationals pick up part of the salary, get a couple good prospects out of the system, and get a deal done. The Rays could give up an upper level but older guy that hasn’t pushed his way up - a Brendan McKay, a Joe Ryan - and pair them with a lower level guy like a Caleb Sampen or flamethrower Jon Doxakis.
If you haven’t noticed, I’m not too concerned about Scherzer’s groin.
UPDATE: The Nationals indicated late this week that Scherzer’s IL stay is expected to be at or near the minimum and that he’s been throwing. They’ll need to juggle their rotation a bit to slot him back if it’s a pure minimum, but that should be easy enough. Don’t expect any inning or pitch limits when he does return, beyond common sense.
Stephen Strasburg SP WAS (strained neck)
While not much news came out of the specialist’s visit for Stephen Strasburg, including the name of the specialist, the timeframe for a recheck indicates he likely got some sort of injection. Calming that nerve or getting some kind of inflammation down in the area is key, but with the repetitive stress of overhand throwing, something that’s already caused Strasburg some problems in the form of wrist RSI, it’s tough to think he’ll just magically be cured and can go right back to the repetitive stress.
What the next step is for Strasburg is unclear. If we assume that he got an injection, there’s a chance he’ll take a few days for it to work, then throw to test things ahead of his visit. Or, he might not throw, to see whether another injection is necessary at the next visit. Or, he might not throw because he doesn’t have relief from the injection. And that’s all under the assumption of something we don’t know.
I don’t like to speculate, but common sense is perfectly within limits. However, this situation straddles that line, so I’ll be wait and see and at best, we’ll see Strasburg throwing sometime next week and have no clear picture of when or even if he’ll return right now.
UPDATE: That was quick. Strasburg was back throwing on Thursday so my idea that he got an injection is iffy. We don’t know the exact timing so it’s possible and there’s other treatments that get to the same place without the pause, so most of what I said above stands. The fact that he’s out throwing is a positive sign. When he throws next - hopefully over the weekend - will be the next and important tell.
George Springer OF JAY (strained quad)
Almost halfway through the season, the Jays certainly haven’t gotten out of George Springer what they expected. That’s been mitigated by a good run by Randall Grichuk filling in and by Vlad Guerrero Jr exploding into MVP consideration. If the Jays can get - and keep - Springer back for the second half, that leaves some room for the expected regression by both. Looking at pre-season projections is tough, since everyone vastly overestimated the run environment, but it’s reasonable to expect Springer to put up the near 900 OPS numbers he did in a very short stint.
Springer’s quad has been slow healing both times - the initial injury and the recurrence - so the Jays are going to be cautious with the return up to a point. The medical staff will need a comfort level with his ability to do things without overtaxing the muscle, but he also has to be able to do a base amount of things. There’s some question as to whether DHing is better for him, as it didn’t really work out last time. The worry is that burst speed is what seems to really cause issues, but aside from power, that’s at the heart of his value. How much do you take away and by doing so, are you able to gradually bring him back, or is he requiring so much maintenance just to stay at that level.
That balance is going to be tough, but to stay in wild card contention, the Jays are going to have to make a lot of smart decisions. They’re a good team without their biggest offseason acquisition, but now it’s up to Springer and the medical staff to make good on the promise. A rehab assignment could happen as soon as this week, but it’s unclear where that will be.
UPDATE: Springer started his rehab assignment on Tuesday and things have gone well. There have been rumblings that he’d be back this weekend, but the Jays haven’t made any commitment to that just yet. It remains possible and it seems that Springer isn’t far off given his performance and his lack of issue with the quad during and after games.
Alex Bregman 3B HOU (strained quad)
We’re seeing more and more upper leg injuries this season. It’s simple - more - but everyone I’ve spoken with inside the game is stumped. They worked on this in the winter and spring, making sure that their players ramped up, that they worked on mobility, that they were in good shape in terms of nutrition. They’ve focused on it more since the season started and we saw the jump. One AT told me that he’s “not super hydrating, not mega hydrating. My guys are drinking so much specialized Gatorade that we’re going to blow the budget and we’re still getting the same injuries as everyone else.”
Something’s changed and no one seems to know what. One team has switched to a specialized drink called LMNT, which I’ve personally used for a couple years. They’re seeing pretty good results despite some climate issues and we’ll see whether they see any advantage. Everyone is scrambling, but no one seems to have an answer.
Which leaves us losing players like Alex Bregman. This is a simple moderate quad strain, but missed time in a tight division can be the difference between a division title and a wild card, and between a wild card and taking up golf. The expectation is that Bregman will miss about two weeks, but the hope is he can keep up dry swings in the cage and not need a rehab assignment.
Quick Cuts:
If you have a pitcher like Hunter Greene, who lit up a 104 Thursday in Double-A, and he’s still in Double-A, do you try to see if he can be successful dialing back to 98, or 95? Better, do you get him in a biomechanics lab and see whether that takes enough stress off his arm to help long term? … People are conspiracy theory-ing about why Byron Buxton is traveling with the team but wasn’t activated after his rehab assignment. It’s not just the soreness he had, but the fact that the data is telling the Twins he’s still slower than normal (which is still fast) but they’re sticking to the data. There’s a chance he’ll play a couple more rehab games … Mike Moustakas is back in a walking boot to help protect his heel. It was aggravated/exacerbated by playing through it. Heel issues like this can linger so he wasn’t pushed back too soon. It’s certainly not the way the Reds wanted to see this go … Carlos Carrasco is throwing again after his hamstring strain and the work he did outside that seems to have helped. All reports are he’s further along than expected in terms of sharpness and firmness, but he’ll still need to ramp up. How the Mets will do that remains to be seen, but how about a deGrom/Carrasco tandem? … Jon Gray will make a rehab start Sunday in Albuquerque. If things go well, it might well be his only one … Miles Mikolas is not throwing yet, per Mike Shildt, but there’s also no timetable for that to even start, per my source … Clarke Schmidt is spinning in his pens now, so live hitters has to be close, with a rehab assignment behind that. July seems reasonable for a return … Expect Luke Voit back from his oblique strain next Tuesday … Gleyber Torres had some minor back spasms, but the Yankees don’t think its a long term worry. They’ll work on him so he may miss some time or get some extra rest over the next week … The Rockies have a shorter list of people they’re going to interview after the season for their open GM position. The name at the top of the list isn’t Theo Epstein or Thad Levine, but Jeff Luhnow … The Reds will get Michael Lorenzen back sometime in July, but expect him to slot into their suddenly thin pen first. He could still build up there and he won’t be able to completely skip a rehab (I think) … Evan White was pulled from his rehab after he re-injured his hip, so his return to the Mariners is on hold indefinitely. I can’t remember so many setbacks in rehab, and it’s not just pitchers as this and Buxton’s situations show … Zack Burdi is up for the White Sox. As a guy who was 100+ but hasn’t been able to stay healthy, I find him a very interesting case in a high velocity pen … Interested in the science behind the sticky stuff? Mike Sonne and Lennon Richards did the work and you can read it here.