UTK 3/22/21

Big Deal for Sal Perez

So here we are, essentially a week to go ahead of Opening Day and things feel, dare I say it, pretty normal in almost every respect. Teams are down to their last few roster decisions and injuries/comebacks have made some of those easier.

We still don’t know the full situation for April, when the minors will not be in operation. How will players stay ready if they don’t make the club? How do you have someone ready for any possible injury if you don’t have a full club at a couple levels? The alt-sites worked, according to most teams, but with a two-part approach, it’s a bit harder. There are several teams arguing that the alt-sites should be kept all year, but none can really make that work without just shutting down Triple-A.

Soon, we’ll lose the rolled innings, the back field work, and we’ll be on the way to normal baseball. Not all the way normal, but the new normal is starting to be shaped, like it or not. The seats will fill. The game is being pushed towards something more ‘exciting.’ Baseball is a big part of America, for better or worse and I wonder if the same kind of anti-data backlash will happen in all the areas where we see it being used, and if the kind of pro-data shift we’re seeing in every industry, especially AI and ML, will be pushed onto baseball, just with a more corporate nomenclature.

I see ‘21 as a transition year, especially ahead of the new CBA. This is going to be the year where change was just on the cusp, where we started to see what was coming and we’re not quite sure what that is on the horizon.

Salvador Perez C KC (no injury)

Signing a 30-year old catcher to a long term, big dollar deal (four years, $84 million) is a gamble that a team better be sure it’s going to win. With catching as thin as it is, Sal Perez made a career half-season pay off big. He’s been relatively durable over his career, but that means mileage. He missed a season with Tommy John, but came back and showed no issues. It’s all a lot of conflicts, but with a solid medical staff that’s been managing him for better than a decade, I have to feel like the Royals have a good handle on this.

It’s the mileage that worries me more than anything. Yes, Perez was lasers last year, but he also didn’t catch nearly as much. That should help some, but if he’s up at 150 games again, that wear worries almost everyone around the game for catchers this year. Some teams are considering going with three catchers given the roster expansion and could have some form of rotation with a young catcher who could spot start a couple, then go back to the minors.

The THR system hasn’t been updated since 2016 so this isn’t a full assessment, but Perez is a mid-level risk, mostly because of age and position, but it sees two years at this level, then the risk goes up in line with his age. Very few catchers age well, but when they do, it’s basically because they’re a member of the Molina family.

Buster Posey C SF (post-hip surgery)

Buster Posey got his first start behind the plate this spring after dealing with hip tightness. He had a labrum fix there in 2019, so there’s some worry, but there have been so few issues post-surgery with this type that there’s almost nothing to go on in terms of side effects. At age-33, Posey isn’t likely to catch 140 games again, but can be very useful at 100-120, plus a position shift is possible with his remaining athleticism and some willingness to let the bat carry the glove.

Beyond this, Posey is an interesting comp for the Perez deal. He’s in the age range where Perez will be with this contract, though he would have been coming off the traumatic ankle injury ahead of where Perez signed. It’s hard to say there’s any connection between Posey’s injuries - the ankle, the knee, the hip - though they are all leg. Aside from the trauma, you could say this is part of the risk of catching and Perez’s risk is down because Posey’s injury led to the rule change.

Would the Royals be happy with similar age production? Given his 2017-2019, which cover the age comp, the answer would be mixed. He’s a 4, 2 and 0.6 WAR in those three years with a defensive bump. Let’s say that ends up as 8 WAR in the fourth year and you’re almost on par with the value, which is not where the team wants to be. It’s easier to justify Perez’s 4/84 at age-30 than it was even a peak Posey’s 8/159 at age-27. Check back with me in 2025 when we can assess this!

JT Realmuto C PHI (fractured thumb)

JT Realmuto was scheduled to make his spring debut, but was a last minute scratch for “general soreness.” Let’s be clear - at this stage, teams have no need to give details for absences or any information on injury. Even saying something as vague as “general soreness” is more than they need to.

All that said, Realmuto simply wasn’t in a good physical place to make his debut. A source I spoke with said that he was a bit sore, a bit out of sorts, and just didn’t feel good at the start of the day. He did a lot of the steps heading into the warm up, but at some point in that prep, Realmuto and the team decided today wasn’t the day.

All signs are pointing to a very near term debut and this was not a setback as much as it was a “everything isn’t perfect” reaction. It’s not great, but it’s understandable given the investment. The only reason to worry here is if it happens again, or if there’s a significant delay. That doesn’t appear to be in the cards and assuming Realmuto plays (and hits) like expected, he’s the top catcher in the game, potentially by a long ways.

Todd Frazier IF PIT (back stiffness)

It doesn’t seem that long ago that Todd Frazier was one of the top third basemen in the game and a coveted free agent. Now, he’s a 35-year-old journeyman who the Pirates are hoping can put up decent numbers on the cheap. You can discount the performance from last year, like you can with almost any player in ‘20, but the skills are diminishing across the board, which makes a back problem even more problematic.

Frazier’s back situation is something between a standard stiffness and spasm, with it going from painful but tolerable to something more and back. The medical staff can help, but the missed time and work is pushing Frazier further back in the fight for playing time. Instead of challenging for a spot, Frazier is on the edge of getting cut from his minor league deal.

In a normal year, Frazier would take a quick trip to Triple-A with something like a May 1 decision date. I’m not sure what they’ll do right now and frankly, the Pirates mode might make it easier for them to just cut Frazier at this stage, given the need to give younger players some time. The Pirates aren’t that young, just not experienced. Aside from KeBryan Hayes, there’s almost no one on this team that will play for the next good Pirates squad.

Sonny Gray SP CIN (back spasms)
Michael Lorenzen SP CIN (strained shoulder)
Tejay Antone SP CIN (strained hip flexor)

Losing an ace is never easy. The Reds watched Trevor Bauer exit without a credible offer and there was no real effort to fill the gap. Luis Castillo has the stuff to take the role, but the step up in slot for everyone makes the whole rotation worse. If the theory is that the Reds are now focused on developing their own pitching, given the investment, it’s still early to have the kind of return that fills in to a major league rotation. What is there, like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, is a bit further off than needed right now, but there’s clearly some coming.

Right now, the question is how to fill out the rotation with both Sonny Gray and Michael Lorenzen dealing with late camp injuries. Gray’s back spasms seem to have subsided, but the team will keep him in sim and backfield games to keep a retro move in place. The likelihood is he misses his first couple starts and then slots back in, with the schedule making it reasonable for the Reds to go through without a real need for all five starters.

The downside is that with Lorenzen out with a significant shoulder strain and Tejay Antone dealing with a hip flexor strain, the Reds won’t be starting their 1-3-4-5, but something more like 1-3-5-8 due to the full injury situation. Lorenzen’s definitely out for the first week, but reports vary on just how long he’ll miss. One source told me they’re focused on a longer term recovery, which indicates some sort of structural issue beyond the muscular, so when Lorenzen is able to pitch again is key, though with him shifting to an alt-site, that rehab will be difficult to see. The same is true for Antone, though that kind of muscle strain tends to be pretty straightforward.

The Reds should be more equipped to be creative with their pitching than any other team, but it doesn’t look like they’re about to try anything like a four-man or to push even a mid-level prospect like Jose Santillan. As long as Gray stays on track, the Reds can stay competitive in a bad division, but there’s going to be a lot of stress on every starter. We’ll see how the system works for the team quickly.

Quick Cuts:

Joey Votto is back in camp after clearing the COVID protocols. It doesn’t look like he’s in any danger of missing Opening Day after his illness … Tyler Clippard will be shut down for six weeks due to a shoulder capsule strain. That means he could be out until June, perhaps longer. This is a tough injury for any pitcher, but a solid med staff down there … Adam Engel has a moderate hamstring strain that will keep him out through Opening Day. That means Adam Eaton likely gets the fourth OF slot for at least the start of the season. At least La Russa doesn’t have to learn a new name … Josh Jung will have a screw put in his foot to fixate a mid foot fracture. He’ll be back about the time the minors come back, so he won’t be too far off track for a possible late season debut. I’d expect him to start in Frisco to stay close to the Rangers medical staff … Cleveland’s owners acknowledged what’s been known for over a year. The Dolans are looking for a minority buyer to help shore up the franchise’s financial position, but don’t want to give up control. More than one group has come in with either a too-large percentage ask or at least wanted a path to ownership, something the Dolans haven’t yet said yes to. To get a deal done, they’ll have to. There is some push to let vehicle ownership come in, which would make the deal they want easy and the acknowledgement likely puts a bit more pressure on the Commissioner’s office to open that door … Really interesting data on Jacob deGrom, but Buster Olney doesn’t really get much closer to an answer in this article. I think the more interesting question here is whether pitchers have a “genetic maximum”, something I’ll look into more in the next UTK.

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