UTK 07/10/20
Free Friday: COVID Camps, closers, Posey out, and more
Normally, Friday’s here will be “Free Friday.” That column will be a bit different than what you normally get in that it will recap/rerun some of the things that subscribers got earlier/more timely. It’s a sampler pack, a flight of injuries. But since everything is free right now, that doesn’t make a lot of sense. I just wanted to remind everyone. I also want to thank everyone for getting the word out. We still need to see some growth before we get to subscriptions, so it would be a big deal to me if you shared this with friends or recommended it to people you feel could use this kind of info. So let’s get to the info:
Kenley Jansen RP LAD (undisclosed)
Kenley Jansen has a known heart issue. He’s played with it for a while and has undergone a couple rounds of cardiac ablation to deal with the issue. It’s “minor” surgery, as much as heart surgery can be, and it’s a very common surgery, though certainly not common for an elite athlete. That does put Jansen in the higher risk categories for COVID, which is certainly a problem. Jansen has not elected to opt out, but I’m told one thing he’s been asked to do is wear a heart monitor at all times. He didn’t do it at all times last year, but he did wear one in enough situations to get a good baseline. This includes the in-game wearing of a monitor, which would have been the Zephyr “puck”, which is one of very few devices approved for on-field use.
Jansen hasn’t been at camp and while any sort of undisclosed absence is going to be assumed to be COVID-related, the bigger question with Jansen is whether he’d opt out. The Dodgers have already lost David Price to opt-out and Jimmy Nelson to injury, so their pitching staff is starting to look a bit thinner. There’s plenty of talent left, but fitting it in to roles seems a bit more unclear than you’d expect at this stage. Blake Treinin seems to be the most likely closer candidate, but they could elect to use one of their young starters - Jose Urias or Dustin May - in high leverage roles to manage their workloads.
Buster Posey C SFG (no injury)
UPDATE: Late word is that Posey has opted out for a couple very good reasons.
Buster Posey is another that hasn’t come to camp, though Posey has been much more open about possibly opting out of the season. At 33, Posey’s been remarkably durable for a catcher. We all remember the traumas, but those are (were?) part of the hazards of the job and Posey came back well. If he elects to take a season off, there’s very few comparables to that kind of move. Eric Davis comes to mind, but that was a far different situation and a very different type of player.
The question for Posey is just how much sand is left in his hourglass. 2019 was the first season where we saw a huge drop-off. Some of that was his team context, but almost every stat moved hard in the wrong direction, seeming to point to one of those “off a cliff” declines we often see with elite players. He has two seasons left plus an option on that big contract he signed back in ‘13. My guess is we see Posey opt out and that he tries to rest and reset for next season.
Madison Bumgarner SP ARZ (no injury)
Posey’s old battery mate is in Arizona now and things have not gone well with the move south. A lot of people head to Arizona to retire, but Bumgarner was expected to be the base of the rebuilding rotation. Not the ace, the base. No one, not even the Diamondbacks, will argue that Bumgarner is what he was, though there was always hope he’d have some sort of bounce back. No, he’s just supposed to be a 175 inning guy that keeps them from having to bring up some of their young arms or overexposes the guys already there like Robbie Ray. They have arms like Blake Walston and Luis Frias on their 60-man roster, but a decent, productive Bumgarner keeps them where they are.
The problem is that Bumgarner has been awful. He’s giving up hits in bunches, homers by the bushel, and isn’t getting deep into his spring or camp outings. He looked better on Thursday, going three shutout innings and seeming to find a bit more movement on his pitches. He’s likely their opening day starter and how he pitches is important, but not in the way that most will notice. Bumgarner has to get over 70 innings this shortened season to be seen as a success as long as he has league average results.
Cole Hamels SP ATL (strained shoulder)
Cole Hamels wasn’t going to be ready for the first Opening Day, but the second one? That doesn’t look so good either. He’s just getting ready to throw live batting practice and reports from Atlanta say that he’s still not showing a lot of pop on his pitches. The expectation was that the pause would give him plenty of time to get ready, stretching out the rehab period over months instead of weeks. That doesn’t appear to have taken well. There’s still time and Hamels is just a base guy, but that Braves rotation without him is very young. Potentially very good, but very, very young and without the demonstrated durability you’d want. Both Max Fried and Mike Soroka have dealt with injury issues so Hamels presence was designed to take some pressure off them. We’ll have to watch to see if Hamels can up things over the next two weeks, but right now, they may have to push him to the secondary site to get him ready for a later debut.
Brandon Morrow RP CHC (post-elbow surgery)
The Cubs cut Brandon Morrow loose, ending this phase of his comeback. He’s still ramping up after nerve surgery near his elbow in November, which is a long time for a surgery that normally has a six to eight week turnaround. Morrow is likely to get some kind of look from a team - he’s the type that would sign a Triple-A deal in most seasons - but it’s unclear how this will go this year. He’s “outside the bubble” now and will have to keep himself in shape and out of COVID’s way. Assuming a normal recovery is tough with Morrow, but nerve transposition has an extremely high success rate and seldom has this kind of extended recovery.
Quick Cuts:
Masahiro Tanaka is having no issues with his concussion recovery. The Yankees are taking it slow because there’s no value at all to rushing this. He could be back on a mound by early next week … Robinson Cano has been out of Mets camp and the speculation is he’s tested positive. Any positives at this stage make Opening Day a question mark, especially if the team opens on the road … Jose Castillo was diagnosed with a Grade II lat strain. That likely ends his season, though the Padres will rehab him with the hopes of a late season return. Castillo was expected to be a key lefty arm in the pen, but this will be his second season lost to injury … Maybe foot issues are contagious as well. The Giants have both Brandon Belt and Hunter Pence in walking boots. Belt’s heel looks the more serious issue right now … Looks like Mitch Haniger will miss the season after back surgery. This isn’t unexpected, but there was hope the pause would have given him time to heal up. It’s just not happening quickly enough … Clint Frazier has been dealing with plantar fasciitis, according to manager Aaron Boone. He’s been playing DH in intrasquad games, but in season, it’s unlikely the Yankees would force both Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge into the field for Frazier, so the DL is a possibility … I expect Steve Cohen to be the next owner of the New York Mets. I don’t think this can be wrapped up by Opening Day, but the auction will be over. My only question now is whether the Wilpons will have some sort of phase-out or whether Cohen got his way and will take over quickly. Don’t expect big changes immediately either. Cohen’s influence won’t really be possible until the offseason. One other interesting thing to watch is how they announce the sale. Owners are conscious that crying poor for months is going to look bad when a team sells for multi-billions. (Remember, Cohen once paid a $1.8 billion dollar fine. This time he gets a team for that money.) And don’t think the sales are done. I still believe at least one more team will be sold this season or off-season and one of the losing Mets bidders will likely be involved.