Under The Knife 9/8/25

Meet the (New) Mets

It’s easy to think of the Mets as the team that tried this before. “Generation K” was supposed to be the future and instead it became a cautionary tale. Even earlier, the 1984 Mets leaned on Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling, and Sid Fernandez and didn’t just survive it - they thrived, kicking open a competitive window that carried them to a title. What we’re seeing right now with Tim Lincecum-aping Jonah Tong, Nolan McLean, and Brandon Sproat isn’t a nostalgia act or a retread. It’s a contending team in the middle of the race, deciding that its best chance is to hand the keys of the rotation to three rookies and hang on. This simply hasn’t been done in recent memory, if ever. Add in that the ace of the staff, Kodai Senga, just got forked down to Triple-A to try a last ditch effort to save his season and nothing is going conventionally.

The immediate question is obvious: how many innings do these kids have left in their arms? Every front office talks about “workload management” and “careful ramp-ups,” but the truth is that pitchers are built to pitch and we only ever find out how far they can go by pushing them. None of these three has been here before, none has felt what it’s like to have a hundred innings on the odometer and then be asked for thirty more, all under the brightest lights. They’re crossing into unknown terrain, and the Mets don’t have the luxury of easing them through. Each start matters, every series is playoff-weight, and the math is cruel: if these rookies can’t handle the strain, the season falls apart.

(Note: Tong’s career high is just over 100 innings and he’s past that now. Sproat’s is 110, he’s already at 122 plus his debut. McLean had 109 last year, he’s over 140 now.)

More interestingly, what happens in October? The simple answer is that the Mets will go with their three or four best arms and it’s hard to say that those three won’t be the answer. If you’re a long time reader, you can bet I’m thinking tandem or really a tandem three plus one, where each of the young starters starts and is backed up with Sean Manaea, Tylor Megill when he returns, and Clay Holmes. The “plus” would be David Peterson, though ideally it would be Senga if he can get back to his ace-level stuff. It’s functionally a four-man rotation with less workload overall and giving the best pitcher even more starts. There’s no reason that system couldn’t start now.

However it’s the benefit to the bullpen has become the real pivot point. Stocking up on “a bullpen full of closers” isn’t just luxury, it’s the plan. The Mets don’t need Scott, McLean, and Sproat to throw seven shutout innings or seven innings at all. (Then again, Sproat took a no hitter late and that’s usually good for the team.) They need them to survive five, maybe six, and then turn it over to a back end that has the firepower to shorten games.

We’ve seen this model work in October plenty of times — Kansas City in 2015 is the archetype — but it’s unusual to see it rolled out in August and September. The Mets are effectively asking their young starters to bridge the gap, not to be aces. With arms like Edwin Diaz, Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers in back and the converted starters now in relief, the bullpen becomes the engine, and the rookies are there to keep the car pointed straight long enough to hand off the wheel. Add Holmes to the postseason pen and there’s more closers there than at Stratton Oakmont.

The quiet brilliance here is that the Mets’ front office seems to understand both the risks and the optics. They didn’t sell out for one more veteran innings-eater at the deadline or panic when Tylor Megill and Frankie Montas broke down. They didn’t cling to the illusion of “proven” arms. Instead, they’ve decided the best play is to remake the rotation on the fly, trusting scouting, development, and maybe just a little luck. It’s not reckless, it’s calculated down to several decimal places. I have to wonder if the whip-smart group upstairs has saved its best tricks for October. Maybe the innings problem looks different when you’ve got three kids who don’t know what they don’t know, a bullpen built like a sledgehammer, and a plan that doesn’t read like anyone else’s. For once, the Mets might not be chasing history. They might be writing something new.

Let’s get to the injuries:

BOBBY WITT, SS KCR (back spasms)

Can a player injure his back carrying a team? I don’t think many in KC will disagree that Bobby Witt is the engine of this team, with it being a “bunch of guys” around him. Sal Perez plays the part of wiley veteran, there’s a couple hot prospects just up in Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone, but then a big gap down to the next round of help. As the playoff odds dwindle, making sure that simple back spasms don’t turn into something that slows down Witt’s legs or bat becomes job one.

Witt had an MRI Saturday that showed the expected “no structural damage”, but Matt Quatraro acknowledged this has been something they’ve been managing for a while and expect to for the rest of the season. That adds a little element of uncertainty not just for the rest of this season, but into next year. I’m sure that Witt and the Royals will take this seriously and spend much of the off-season figuring out what helps and how to program all of it into his routine.

Given that Witt has one of the longest contracts in all of baseball, with a chance of being a Royal until 2037 in ink and at least 2030 absent a stunning trade, the contract might end up being an advantage. Not only do the Royals have a player locked up long term, any CBA clauses or even a salary cap will have to be grandfathered or gerrymandered around. I also know for a fact that the Royals brought in a top physical therapist ahead of Witt’s signing to do extensive testing. It was less of a physical and more the basis for a prediction. Of course, a wonky back throws all of that off, quickly.

*I’ll remind everyone that I don’t do Jrs, Srs, and other designates because I insist that their purpose is to differentiate between two people that might otherwise be confused. No one thinks I’m writing about the one-time major league pitcher with this, so why do it?

TREA TURNER, SS PHI (strained hamstring)

Speed player. Hamstring strain. Bad combo and yes, Turner is more than just a speed player, but for a shortstop reliant on a quick first step, that alone would be bad. Mix in the timing, where all but the most minor strain will carry into October and there’s not much good news in here for the Phillies.

At best, Turner is likely to hit the IL which will take him out for most of the regular season at minimum. He might get a cameo at the end to test himself and if the Phillies hold the bye position as they are now,. it helps some. But let’s carry this out to a Grade II strain, which would be four to six weeks. That doesn’t take big math to see it goes well into October and perhaps all the way. There’s going to be an MRI and we’ll know more early in the week, but the Phillies already have a good idea and the whispers are negative.

I’m not ready to get that far over my skis and not wait on confirmation if not the MRI - we’ll likely get both at the same time, probably Tuesday as the Phillies and Mets go heads up. Edmunda Sosa takes over in the interim and yes, that’s a big drop-off, so let’s at least discuss the idea that the Phillies might push Aidan Miller up from Double-A. He hasn’t dominated at that level, but he’s held his own and might be better than Sosa right now. The Phillies have been bold with moves like this before so while it’s a slim possibility, now you know the name.

Aaron Judge is back in the outfield, the Dodgers have more injuries, and the Cubs have some new questions. That and more is only for paid subscribers.