Under The Knife 9/5/22
Fruits of our Labors
I almost feel sorry for hitters. While hitting is down in virtually every measurable way, I don’t think it’s the hitters. I think we’re seeing a decade of decisions and technologies coming together to create an unbalanced environment.
The easiest way to highlight this is simply to show Pitching Ninja videos. One of the smartest things MLB has done in the last two years is letting Rob do his thing on social media. Why they, or Fox, or Apple* haven’t snapped him up yet is beyond me.
Before technologies like Trackman and Rapsodo existed, there was ball spin. But without a way to know it, there was no way to work on it. Coaches could coach, but it was all guesswork, all feel. Data quickly allowed things to get near-instant feedback and at a relatively accessible level. There’s not many colleges that don’t have at least one of those, while the shift to travel ball has created facilities that have even more high end technology. Those without access to those usually suburban and expensive facilities are going to be left behind. Baseball needs an RBI program for tech.
However, while there are technologies for hitters - HitTrax, Blast, etc - it remains a reaction to the pitcher’s action, and the hardest thing to do in sports. The more pitchers can use this data, the more we’re going to see Greg Weisserts. Remember, Weissert is a 2016 college draftee in the middle rounds. He’s age-27, but throws mid-90s with a slider that does THAT. I’ll bet not a single one of you out there drafted him in a fantasy league outside a super deep dynasty league. No offense to Weissert, but he’s not special. He’s a widely-available arm that developed a pitch that is special.
It was about a decade ago that I went to a Reds-Padres game on a whim. I drove down with a friend and somewhere in the game, a reliever came in for the Padres and his first pitch was 95. 95 used to be an eye-opener and here was a guy I didn’t know, and can’t recall now. 95 is almost table stakes now, and sliders like that are more likely to be, with youth pitchers now growing up with the data as second nature to them.
What happens when the great ones get access to that?
Maybe it’s not quite that easy, but developing secondary pitches used to take years and development. Now, there’s instant feedback and for some, instant results. That’s before we get really good at using the data. We’ll once again see “old school” coaches pushed out, but it’s less old vs new as much as it is an inability to change for some.
The question becomes - what’s next? Hawkeye data has been available for a couple years and we’re seeing biomechanical data for pitchers. I think we’ll see physical data come on more, as we get away from inaccurate wearables to more accurate, medical-grade data. We’ll have knowledge of fatigue levels and if MLB allows real-time usage, a de facto battery gauge on a pitcher’s arm. What are hitters going to do then? I’ll likely still almost feel sorry for them. Almost.
If you like this kind of technology stuff, you can always order my book, The Science of Baseball! On that, let’s get to the injuries.
NESTOR CORTES, SP NYY (strained groin)
LUIS SEVERINO, SP NYY (strained lat)
The Yankees pitching has been very good this year, despite having to regularly deal with injuries and a lack of depth. The injuries have been minor, even expected, which is a plus for conditioning, and the lack of depth has been papered over with trades, as the Yankees often do. Still, we’re seeing payoff for the team’s investment in pitching tech and development with the “Gas Factory” getting payoffs like Weissert.
There should be more depth starting this week, as Nestor Cortes (another product of the Gas Factory) and Luis Severino are close to returns. Cortes has healed up from his minor groin strain and will start on Thursday. He shouldn’t have any limitations or issues, though he still has some light soreness. In another age, someone would bunt early on him to test it. I think he’ll be fine, but there’s some recurrence risk.
Severino had his first rehab start and it’s unclear whether the weather suspending the game threw off his work, or whether he was able to get it in afterward. He went only 22 pitches, but looked good and more importantly had no issues with soreness in his healed-up lat. Severino is on the 60-day and can’t come back before mid-September regardless, so he’ll have time and a couple more starts before he’s back. Severino and Cortes likely slot back in to a playoff-four rotation with Frankie Montas and Gerrit Cole.