Under The Knife 9/30/22

Heading Into October

There’s no numbers to judge managers, aside from wins and losses, and expectations. That makes figuring out how Oli Marmol did this year difficult. I can see what happened, I can see how it happened, but there’s no way to tell why it happened. As I’ve said, I expected the older players to be a distraction, forced into the lineup despite better options. That wasn’t the case, with a career year from Paul Goldschmidt, smart trades, and a mix-and-match lineup that was all positive.

I’m not in the clubhouse day to day, and frankly, I think “mood” and “vibe” is overrated. Winning is not, and this team did enough of that that the rest is moot. Did Marmol make the right moves, or did things just happen? It’s something of a nature or nurture argument. I’ll give credit to him for not getting in the way, of letting things seem to just play out, and not over-managing when there was ample opportunity to do so.

I’ll point to a steady hand with the ever-changing outfield and to the use of the pen as points in Marmol’s favor. He got past the early season unsteadiness in the rotation without over-using the pen or members of it, allowing Ryan Helsley to transition into a non-standard closer organically.

The news that Yadier Molina is going to manage the Puerto Rico team in the World Baseball Classic is interesting and given how Molina is oft-noted as the vocal clubhouse leader, I’m sure some are going to credit Molina with some of what Marmol’s done. There are some saying that Molina will be the next manager of the Cardinals, and, maybe, but I don’t think Marmol was brought in to be a placeholder. Molina’s times away from the team didn’t coincide with downturns, so I think this is projection of an image onto a player rather than something demonstrable, though if Derrick Goold or Rick Hummel, people who are in that clubhouse, want to convince me otherwise, I’m open.

I do think Molina will be a major league manager, and quickly, though it will look odd if it’s anywhere aside from St. Louis. What I hope is that it’s somewhere like Springfield, or Memphis. Molina could probably be a good manager right now, but could he be a great manager if the team handles him like a top prospect? That’s an experiment I’d be curious to see, though so many recent players don’t want to take that slow pace or ride the buses. They have money, and other options that are far less work for far more money.

TONY GONSOLIN, SP LAD (strained forearm)
PHIL BICKFORD, RP LAD (strained shoulder)

All season long, the Dodgers have used their hedge fund billions to back up an injured team. Wait no, that’s not how it worked. The Dodgers didn’t go out and buy a bunch of players. Their roster is largely home grown and while they have one big free agent signing off the list, players like Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney are the very definition of “freely available talent.” The bullpen is much the same and even there, it’s very accurate to say that the Dodgers developed these players, even if they didn’t originally sign them.

Despite all the injuries, largely known issues and accepted risks, the Dodgers are dominating. While they won’t challenge for the all-time record on wins, they’re right there on RS/RA. It’s a truly amazing performance that speaks to the way the organization has been organized and functions, starting with the acquisition of Andrew Friedman and maybe even the acquisition of the Dodgers themselves, which led to a lot more things, from Elysian Ventures to stakes in Chelsea, the Lakers, and perhaps the Angels next.

However, does all of it mean nothing if they don’t win another, or a “standard normal” hunk of metal? Whispers that the COVID-era trophy doesn’t count are heard and used in Dodgerland, so getting healthy or at least figuring out who’s available come October is key. The Dodgers will get Tony Gonsolin back. He won’t get 20 wins, or the Cy now, but he’s been a key pitcher. Gonsolin’s return would keep Andrew Heaney in the pen, which the Dodgers like as a longer reliever, which could keep all of their starters to two times faced.

The pen behind Heaney is even less settled. Craig Kimbrel might not even make the roster, but figuring out who will is impossible if they keep falling. Phil Bickford gave up Pujols’ 700th, but hasn’t pitched since then. The IL stint is called “shoulder fatigue”, but is a strain in the back of the shoulder. This pushes him out for the first series even with the bye, but there had been questions if Bickford would make the roster, even if by default. How that roster is constructed next week will tell us how Dave Roberts will have to manage and for all that money, they’ll rely on Chris Martin and Evan Phillips, two more smart, cheap acquisitions, at the end of games.

CHARLIE BLACKMON, OF COL (torn meniscus)

At age-36, Charlie Blackmon isn’t stealing bases much any more and his defensive value is down. Part of that might be his knees, one of which has a torn meniscus that will end his season. The assumption is that he’ll have surgery, though the Rockies gave no details. The meniscus could be removed or repaired, with the latter taking much longer though with a full off-season, Blackmon should be back by the start of spring training.

Meniscus and knee injuries in general are relatively rare in baseball, with even minor ones like this usually the result of one quirky trauma - a bad step, an unlucky twist - than a part of the game like in football or soccer. There have been tons of advances in repair and while a couple baseball players had meniscus transplants about a decade ago, it hasn’t been tried again that I know of in baseball. It’s very common in standard patients, especially those in mid-life. Implants are also making progress but again, the conservatism and need for surety keeps the standard operations which are good enough in place in the elite athletic orthopedic circles.

MATT MANNING, SP DET (strained forearm)

Not to pile on the Tigers, but they weren’t good this year. It cost Al Avila his job, so what will Scott Harris and his staff do to turn things around? AJ Hinch is seemingly safe and there’s talent here, but far too much of it is on the shelf in one fashion or another. Matt Manning becomes the sixth pitcher to hit the 60-day IL, an indication that things have gone wrong. While a forearm strain at this point of the season makes the 60-day just procedural, it’s still a bad sign.

Manning joins Casey Mize (Tommy John), Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John), Tarik Skrubal (flexor tendon), Beau Brieske (flexor tendon), and Rony Garcia (biceps tendinitis) on the 60-day, to say nothing of top prospect Reese Olsen, who went on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury late in the season. That’s not a good list, just long. There’s talent and more coming, like young Jackson Jobe who pushed up to High-A in his first full season, but if they’re just going to litter the IL with them, that doesn’t help the Tigers at all.

Chris Fetter was rumored to be a candidate for the coaching job at Michigan when it opened, which could be a sign that he’s on the way out. Juan Nieves was Don Cooper’s long time assistant with the White Sox. Both will basically need to convince the new boss that they’re the answer, not the issue, early in the off-season, but do not be surprised to see new faces in a lot of places. One rumor is that the Tigers want to focus on pitching development, but, well, read above. They’ve got enough issues that health should be the first focus or there’s nothing to develop.

YOAN MONCADA, IF CWS (bruised foot)
LUIS ROBERT, OF CWS (strained wrist)

More White Sox injuries? Yes. For Moncada, this lost season ends with a foot injury, a simple but painful bruise from a foul ball. While Moncada may return, there’s little value in pushing things and the Sox are likely to be conservative with Moncada and anyone else that gets dinged up. That leaves Moncada’s down season at about 100 games and puts his numbers in line with his 2020 down season. That leaves Moncada as a big question mark for a team with plenty of them. Health would help, but I’m not sure anyone has a handle on who Moncada really is on the field.

Luis Robert is more of a known quantity, making his injuries even more valuable. When he was on the field, he showed the same talent from his 2021 breakout, but quotes from Robert that he pushed through wrist pain and developed swing issues are precisely what you don’t want to hear from a young star or from a medical and coaching staff that’s supposed to prevent exactly that sort of thing from happening. The Sox have a lot of off-season decisions ahead, but re-focusing on health as the foundation would be a good start.

TYLER O’NEILL, OF STL (strained hamstring)

Tyler O’Neill was ready to come back, and then he wasn’t. When John Mozeliak not only said O’Neill wasn’t likely to be back for the end of the season but that there was uncertainty about the whole of the postseason, it was a surprise. There’s no known setback, he’d been hitting in the cage, and started running some this week (running outside, that is. “Linear”, as it was called.)

A source tells me this is more about the slower-than-expected pace of his recovery, and that Dylan Carlson has been solid while O’Neill is out. Carlson’s worked in both center and right as Oli Marmol tinkers a bit with his roster construction for the playoffs. That gets tougher since they won’t know if they’re facing the struggling Phillies or the suddenly surging and all-too-familiar Brewers until the last day. Those opponents profile very differently, so the tinkering will likely continue as well as setting up the rotation and rest.

Quick Cuts:

Julio Rodriguez will hit and run over the weekend, with a Monday activation expected … Anthony Rendon was activated and is burning off the suspension he got earlier this season. He’ll be eligible for the last three games of the year, but I’m getting mixed signals over whether he’ll actually play … Mickey Moniak took another ball off his hand. No fracture this time, but he’ll go on the IL, ending his season. Why do players continue to take this risk? Padded gloves, people. Padded gloves … Archie Bradley made it back from his fractured elbow, but two days later, back issues have ended his season … DJ LeMaheiu is expected to be activated on Friday, giving the team some looks with him ahead of the playoffs … Details conflict, but it looks like Trevor Story won’t make it back before the end of the season. He had recently been making progress, which is where things get confusing … The Jays hope to see Lourdes Gurriel running on Friday or Saturday. His strained hamstring has him on the edge for the first Jays playoff series … Starling Marte still can’t hit and Buck Showalter says he’s still immobilized. That’s a bad sign, but the Mets will keep pushing to get him back for their first series … I’ve got a piece coming next week I’m excited about and hope you’ll enjoy. I have a lot planned for the offseason and while I know many of you exit after October (and I’m ok with that), I do think the off-season stuff I do here is among the most interesting. I’d also love suggestions for what you’d like to see.

Speaking of, you don’t pay for my music opinions, but that’s why I’ll occasionally put things down here. They’re off the normal topic, out of my lane, but there’s a bit of me that still thinks I’m Cameron Crowe. (That part is wrong.) Regardless. The Taylor Hawkins Tribute concerts were pretty amazing. Get a friend that can put together a tribute like Dave Grohl, as if that’s possible. It’s not about exposure, I know, but if there’s a winner from the two shows, it’s Wolfgang Van Halen. He shredded. He had fun. He played along with Justin Hawkins, one of my favorites as a singer and a vlogger (seriously, check out his YouTube videos), and while he’s not his father, damn, the kid can play. His album from last year was a surprise to me, but his live shows were always a bit overshadowed because people wanted him to play … no, be his father. He didn’t want to play Panama at his own show. At a tribute concert, he could, and did, and rocked it. For someone who could make a LOAD of cash going out and doing Van Halen songs, more credit to him for being an artist and for doing what the people want when the occasion was right.