Under The Knife 9/28/22

Future Fish and Health Habits

The Marlins just parted ways with Don Mattingly, a nice way of saying that his contract wasn’t going to be renewed. Mattingly has the right to make an exit like this given what he’s put up with, though the lack of progress is notable. Kim Ng has had two seasons in charge of the team and not much has changed, including injuries. That was one area where Ng has a notable influence. While players and manager have stayed the same, Ng turned over the medical staff last year.

I asked Derek Rhoads, the injury data guru, if he saw any differences in his data and the answer was largely no. According to Rhoads, the Marlins look about the same year over year, with slight differences - more shoulders than elbows this year - but not a significant difference. One year can be luck, so we’ll see more over the next few if the changes they made were positive, but if a medical staff were paid based on the money they saved a team, they wouldn’t exactly be ordering Ferraris, Goldman Sachs style.

There’s certainly more to a turnaround job than just staying healthy, but all the money and time necessary to successfully doing so can be wasted if you do all the right things and then can’t keep the players healthy. Getting that system right in the long term should be done before the turnaround even begins, so maybe the Marlins got that part right. Now, we get to see what Ng and company do with a managerial hire and maybe some actual spending on talent.

For now, on to the current injuries:

TIM ANDERSON (strained finger)
MICHAEL KOPECH (strained shoulder)

The White Sox season is defined by injuries. Next season will be defined by how they respond to it. For decades, the White Sox and Brewers were neck and neck, to the point where I wrote at Sports Illustrated that Herm Schneider and his staff were like one of those punch cards at Subway - over nine years, they saved enough dollars to pay for the entire team payroll the following season. This staff has been good, but changes around them have really changed results.

With the season closing in on the end, two more Sox players are being shut down. It’s official for Tim Anderson. He had surgery on his hand August 11th and was getting close, but there’s just no reason to push it. Anderson should be fine to have a normal off-season and there’s little chance of a recurrence once this was surgically fixed. Anderson has shown he’s an elite talent in all aspects, while rule changes might make his speed even more valuable in ‘23.

It’s less official for Michael Kopech, but it’s also unlikely he’ll pitch again this season. His shoulder has made progress, but the calendar and standings make zero value for that short start. Some might say confidence, but that’s never been an issue for Kopech. 120 innings wouldn’t be a success for many, but Kopech’s established himself as a starter, finally, and could build next year. Durability remains a question, but he’s found something of a sweet spot, throwing mid-90’s instead of 100, giving up a little bit of dominance for more command. I expect he’ll take a big step forward next year.