Under The Knife 9/27/23
Goodbye, Brooks
A tip of the baseball cap to Brooks Robinson.
Right now, the playoffs aren’t set, but it’s close. While there’s big things still do decide, it’s possible to do a quick look at where teams are likely to be. Don’t worry, I’ll have a much more in-depth look at how injuries will affect the playoffs during the lull between the season and the playoffs. You know, next Monday.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1 BALTIMORE
2 TEXAS
3 MINNESOTA
4 TAMPA BAY
5 TORONTO
6 HOUSTON/SEATTLE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1 ATLANTA
2 LA DODGERS
3 MILWAUKEE
4 PHILADELPHIA
5 ARIZONA
6 CHICAGO CUBS
There’s really only one spot in real doubt. Yes, the Marlins are just a game back of the Cubs and the Reds could get hot, but this is functionally almost a lock. If you look at past seasons, aside from a few notable exceptions (looking at you, Colorado), the playoff picture tends to be pretty stable over the course of the last month of the season. Aside from Baltimore, there’s not really a huge surprise here. All of these teams were expected to compete and did. Jim Baker runs a big contest called “Predicatron” where players attempt to predict the standings at the start of the season. I’m winning my division there, so it doesn’t take a crystal ball.
In the NL, pitching will be key. Atlanta’s depth behind Spencer Strider had faded. A healthy Max Fried is key, but the team may have to lean hard on the bullpen as they did a couple seasons back. The same is true for the Dodgers, where Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot are already at career highs. The Cubs would love to have Marcus Stroman back in the rotation - more on him later - but are otherwise set.
Milwaukee and Philadelphia are more or less healthy. The Brewers would like to have Christian Yelich’s back not acting up, but that’s their only real issue. It’s better for the Phillies, where their toughest decision is deciding which of their six starters to use in any given series and who, if any, moves to the pen. Arizona is largely there because of health throughout the season, as well as very good management of both the games and the roster.
The AL is much the same. Baltimore has issues at closer — more on that below — but the kids have been alright. Same with Toronto (some minor issues) and both of Houston and Seattle (again, minor issues
Texas and Tampa have fought through injuries, but differently. Tampa does its typical dumpster diving while Texas made big deals. The Max Scherzer deal didn’t work out as planned, with Scherzer on the shelf for the playoffs, leaving the Rangers relying on its other hired gun, Jordan Montgomery. With Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney in the pen, we could see a lot of short starts in the playoffs.
Tampa filled in with youth, but injuries to Luke Raley, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, and Yandy Diaz need to be patched over once the Wild Card games start, or the team faces another quick exit. If they make it past that, their pitching depth becomes much more of an issue, with Taj Bradley at pro career highs and looking like fatigue might have cost him since returning from Triple-A.
We’ll know a lot more about all of these by the end of the week, so let’s look at the injuries we have now:
JON GRAY, SP TEX (inflamed wrist)
The Rangers have surged, and had a power surge, but the issue they’re going to have in the playoffs is pitching. Jon Gray left his start Monday with a wrist issue. He pitched well for six innings, but got fidgety in the sixth, then left after a couple warm up pitches. The Rangers have said that Gray went for imaging on Tuesday, but there’s no public results as of publishing. The results are going to be huge, as without Max Scherzer leaves them a bit shy of quality. Losing Gray as well would leave them with three healthy starters.
Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery are the clear 1-2 now, with Gray as the necessary 3. Dane Dunning is all that’s left, with Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney in the pen, but likely the next option. If Gray goes to the IL - unlikely with the timing - I’m not sure what options the Rangers have beyond that.
I went back and looked at Gray’s last start, a short shelling against the Red Sox of a couple innings, and there’s no sign that he’s hurting, but his results were far from playoff-quality. There’s no clarity yet on the injury so I won’t even speculate about what it is, especially when what matters is “available/unavailable.” I’m sure we’ll hear more pretty quickly.
MARCUS STROMAN, SP CHC (fractured rib)