Under The Knife 9/26/25
The Final Weekend and Robot Overlords
Last one of the regular season, so let’s make this one free:
With the ABS challenge system coming in 2026, pitch framing isn’t going away, but it is going to be different.
The challenge system doesn’t kill the art of stealing a strike - it reframes it, pun intended. A team only gets two failed challenges (likely with a reset in extras) and the umpire still calls 99 percent of the game. The robots aren’t in charge. They’re just waiting in the wings, like a fact-checker with a buzzer and no patience for nuance. That’s the shift: not elimination, but escalation. Teams will be playing a different kind of game now.
So what do they challenge?
They could burn one early on an egregious call - send a message, right the scales, make the chart look cleaner and risk showing up the ump a bit. Maybe they save them all, let the ace work the edges and trust the soft-hands catcher to get you a little more than the black. Until they can’t. Until ball four in the seventh inning of a 2–1 game. Now what?
This isn’t hypothetical. In Triple-A in 2024 players won 52.2% of challenges. Most teams averaged just over two per game. But in tight games, challenge rates went up and success rates dropped. Why? Because the close ones feel bigger, even if they aren’t worse. That’s where the psychology starts to matter more than the system.
Framing still matters and maybe even more now. It’s just not about numbers. It’s about trust. If your catcher can coax the zone without drawing a challenge, he’s gold. If he wins a challenge without showing up the umpire, he’s platinum. This is where the next evolution lives, in the gray space between performance and politics. You’re not just trying to win calls. They’re managing relationships, tempo, leverage, and ego. The ump is still human and feeling a bit less secure.
The system invites abuse, too. Batters flinching on obvious balls just to trigger a check. Pitchers trying to quick-pitch before a challenge can be signaled. Coaches with pre-scripted challenge calls based on umpire heatmaps and third-party data. Catchers that forget the plan and tap their cap. Teams will get this wrong before they get it right.
The smartest ones will treat it like they did the shift: slowly, methodically, and with intent. They’ll build a language around it. They’ll know which umps can take it, which moments are worth the risk, and which catchers thrive in the in-between.
This won’t be the end of framing. It’ll be its exposure. Normies will know, not just Fangraphs subscribers. The sleight-of-hand guys will fade. The quiet operators will rise. The difference won’t be in how a pitch is received - it will be in who decides it’s worth fighting over.
Now, the injuries:
KYLE TUCKER, OF CHC (strained calf)
CADE HORTON, SP CHC (inflamed back/rib)
Craig Counsell is always very circumspect and precise with what he says. “Trending towards playing” is about as much optimism as anyone gets until he has a hard date and everyone is aligned. That means it’s not quite there, but with time running out on the season, Counsell and everyone else needs to know what they can expect from Kyle Tucker. With his calf strain, there’s some recurrence risk, but there’s also such a reward delta that there’s just no way he and they don’t push things.
One risk is that he damages it further, just as he’s heading out to free agency. Aside from a catastrophic failure a la Tyrese Haliburton, Tucker is likely to be rewarded as much for toughness and team-first as he would be for a recurrence. Baseball players are very weak when it comes to peer pressure and more peer view. Being seen as selfish or soft has weight, even over self-preservation and comfort in many cases.
If last year is any guide and there are resemblances, then Tucker did well after coming back. He hit 365/453/587 and the Cubs would take that, but he also had a rehab assignment and that’s over a month. In his first 10 games, he was a still respectable 290/395/419, but the numbers show he built up and got a bit hot at the end.
That’s where he’ll start - at the end. There’s only a couple games and a couple days off before the games are playoff games and a short series to boot. I’ll be surprised if we don’t at least get a cameo appearance for Tucker, especially if there’s a matchup that the team can cherry pick for success. He’s had a total of 12 at bats against the four pitchers left that the Cubs will face, so I don’t see it.
Given my mention of Counsell’s very precise language with the media, “areas of concerns” for Cade Horton’s MRI are, well, concerning. This appears to be more focused on ribs rather than back, which is the same general area, but if we have something like the weird rib stress reactions we saw earlier, this is definitely one where “if this was the playoffs” comes into play. Look for Horton to throw this weekend to help the Cubs determine where or if he’ll fit in the playoff rotation.
RAMON LAUREANO, OF SDP (fractured finger)
Ramon Laureano broke his finger. That’s what we know. What we don’t know is which finger or how. Despite my best efforts, my Pads sources either didn’t know or wouldn’t tell (and they’ve been cagey for a month, and I don’t know why on that either.) It wasn’t a HBP, there wasn’t a clear mechanism in his last at bat, and there’s no clarity coming. He’s out for the rest of the regular season, what there is, and for at least the Wild Card round. He’ll be re-assessed after that but without knowing more than “fracture” it’s hard to judge.
The simple timeline for any fracture is four to six weeks, but again, context changes things. If he’s functional and can grab a bat, Laureano and the Padres would likely take the risk. The big “but” here is the roster rules. If the team rosters him and then he can’t go, the Pads couldn’t play a man down in the NLDS, which would put him out for the NLCS if they make it. That’s a big gamble, especially considering extra time would help.
Probably just me, but I can’t say Laureano’s name without hearing the Drive By Truckers singing it.
ROKI SASAKI, P LAD (strained shoulder)
Ok, he can relieve. Roki Sasaki had his first major league relief outing and it couldn’t have gone much better. It was a 1-2-3 with 2 nasty K, in a key game with the surging D-Backs. Not only did he have his good stuff, he warmed up well and recovered well per a source. While he’s not going to do back to backs now, that may become an issue in the playoffs. There are enough off-days to not be a major problem, but the team doesn’t know how his arm will deal with this. There’s about a week of data.
Now, will Sasaki really go into a relief role or is he being seen as a tandem? Both are in play and I still think pairing him with Shohei Ohtani is the most likely. Ohtani’s going five when he starts, so there’s a bit of easy planning and their stuff is different enough that it’s not a like-for-like swap.
Mike Petriello points out, over on MLB.com, that in all the scenarios for Ohtani, it would be legal for him to start and close. Since he’s DH in between, he’s not leaving the game. It’s more or less a variant on the old Tommy Lasorda “righty to right field” ploy. (I researched a bit and the move isn’t Lasorda’s. Cap Anson did it in the 1890s and contemporaries like Billy Martin and Chuck Tanner used it.)
Back to Sasaki, there’s no indication he’s a one-inning-only reliever. While that’s as far as he’s gone, he was going multiple innings during his rehab as a starter before the shift. I think a lot of it depends on the context. Is he coming in the fifth or sixth, or has he become the high leverage guy the Dodgers don’t seem to have right now as the bullpen has pooped the coop? I’m not sure we’re going to find out over the next couple days, but we might.
Going forward, there has been some discussion about Sasaki’s injury history and the chance that this isn’t a short term move. Sasaki could be a very good closer and if we note that capturing the Japanese market is a side benefit of having the best Japanese players, a lights-out save guy might not be the worst thing for marketing. Best use of resources or reasonably going to keep him healthy? No, not really, but that’s never stopped teams before.
JEREMY PENA, SS HOU (strained oblique)
It’s easy to say that injuries have done in the Astros this season. Really, it’s poorly timed injuries. There’s never a good one, but losing people at the end when there’s no margin for error is worse. Yordan Alvarez’s quirky-but-devastating ankle. Josh Hader’s shoulder failing after all these years of use. Now Jeremy Pena has an oblique - a common injury - and Carlos Correa is there, but while this isn’t an injury stack, it’s such an obvious loss of value.
Word is that this likely would have been an IL-worthy injury in season, but with less than 15 days, the Astros think this is low level enough that the chance that he could play is worth playing a man down (and down is relative with slightly expanded rosters.) They’ll play with a rotation of Correa, Mauricio Dubon, and Ramon Urias as they go through the last weekend and we’ll have to see where Pena is in the Wild Card round, if the Astros get there. No, Isaac Paredes will not be playing third or anywhere in the field given his hamstring issue.
JOSE BERRIOS, SP TOR (inflamed elbow)
An IL stint for Jose Berrios complicates things for the Jays just a bit. He’s headed for an MRI on his elbow and it’s clear he won’t be ready for the first round, allowing them to bring up Paxton Schultz for now and figure out what to do with their pitching staff for the playoffs. Berrios had been pushed to the pen for Trey Yesavage, but there has been speculation that Yesavage would be limited through the playoffs, so perhaps in a pen role himself. With Chris Bassitt out, that may not be plausible.
The MRI will be the tell here, but so much is going to depend on where the Jays finish. A bye helps, in many ways, but there’s still no real fourth starter aside from Yesavage. With a couple multi-inning relievers, they could go with a tandem or “33 plan” - three pitchers, three innings each - or just go full bullpen game, if needed.
DAVID FRY, OF CLE (fractured nose)
It’s no surprise that David Fry has facial fractures after just seeing his HBP. I’ve seen longer video from the game now and it’s a testament to the medical staffs how quickly they get out there. The medical staff was out there in under 20 seconds, what appears to be the doctor was there in about 90, and he was off the field on a cart in just over two minutes. That’s good timing, good training, and will contribute to Fry’s recovery. Think back to how quickly the Brewers doctor got to Giancarlo Stanton after he was hit in the face and perhaps saved his eyesight for how valuable this can be.
The damage appears to be significant but there’s no short term danger or long term concerns. Fry will be out until the bones are healed, which makes the playoffs unreachable. There doesn’t appear to be any significant effect on his vision, which is always the key. In this, the direct impact to his nose may have lessened some of the impact force to other structures like the orbitals.
I also want to note something I hadn’t noticed. The ball nicks off Fry’s bat before hitting him, which makes this play read like a foul ball rather than a HBP in the box. While true, I worry that researchers years from now will be down a count or two when they look at the rise in HBP injuries. It’s pedantic, I know, but data sets are pretty unforgiving.
Quick Cuts:
The Phillies might not activate Trea Turner (hamstring) this weekend, but only because they’ve clinched position. There’s no setback, but the team doesn’t believe he needs games to tune or prove anything … There’s an illness going around with several teams, including the Padres and Phillies … Nick Lodolo left Wednesday’s start with a minor groin strain, so what’s up with groin strains and Reds pitchers? He’s not ruled out if they make the playoffs, but he also might be the fourth starter in a three game series, which could make some interesting roster decisions for the team … Bryan Woo (shoulder) played catch, but did not throw from a mound on Thursday … Roman Anthony (oblique) still isn’t doing “baseball activities” (read: swinging), but a source tells me he could move fast once he can. He won’t return this weekend … Jackson Holliday is heading for an MRI on his knee and regardless, there’s little chance he plays over the final few games … Mike Tauchman’s season ends with a torn meniscus. Not great for an age-35 impending free agent … Lots of rumors flying about Bruce Bochy. If he chooses to step down, expect the Rangers to immediately try and pre-empt the market by hiring Skip Schumaker. He’s already in house as a consultant, though I’m sure his agent has already sounded out the market for him. There’s plenty of speculation about jobs out there and we could see more activity than initially expected, but I just don’t see it being crazy.
Less-Quick Cuts:
One story that has been an absolute non-story is the use of minor league fields by two major league teams. In West Sacramento, they managed to use the field for two teams, so kudos to those grounds crews (is it one or two currently?) While park factor changed, it didn’t get silly, largely because most minor league parks are very sterile now in terms of dimensions. They’re fan friendly first, but neutral-ish parks make development and identification easier. The demise of the Cal League is largely because of this inability to neutralize those parks. We’ll have at least one of those back in 2026 and beyond and I’m told one team is considering a very short term move in order to accommodate some renovations in 2027. I’m curious if the union will address this in the CBA negotiations, but honestly, it’s worked.
That made me think about a showcase game. MLB’s going back to Iowa for another Field of Dreams game, which is fine, but like rebooting Baywatch, again. I’ve seen it. One idea I have is some sort of throwback game. If MLB can make a temporary stadium worthy of an MLB game in the middle of a cornfield, couldn’t they do it somewhere else? How about the Mets and Yankees playing in a Ebbets Field replica somewhere in Brooklyn or Central Park? Could the Phillies build a Baker Bowl replica downtown? Most teams don’t have some long gone historic park that works, but maybe you stretch and let the Giants play in a Polo Grounds replica on Willie Mays birthday? There’s enough there that it’s worth an experiment and everyone likes a spectacle.
Have we talked enough about Tito Francona and the job he’s done in Cincinnati? He was the perfect manager for this group and Nick Krall has surrounded Francona with enough help to take the edge off some of his weaknesses as well as allow for absences. People forget Francona’s first stint and given how many coaches do better in their second go-rounds, I’m curious who else might fit the mold. David Bell comes to mind, as does Scott Servais and I guess Schumaker as well. With the Reds, they’re a team set up for next year and could be one injury away from being locked in this year, and they had plenty. Just getting back to average - they’re over 1,500 games missed this year - would give them almost two wins. If they finish back one …
You ever wonder what Cal Raleigh’s sister’s nickname is?
Paul Toboni gets to run the show in Washington, coming over from Boston where his scouting and draft work has paid off early. That gives an indication of what the Nats want to do now, but more important is whether the ownership is going to spend again. A scouting build takes a while, even as the team had the first pick this year and made a surprising if committed pick of Eli Willits. Hiring a guy this young usually signals they want big, fast changes, so let’s see how he fills in his team and makes early moves in what should be a strong off-season market.
A reader asked who edits UTK and the answer is, unsurprisingly, no one. I’m the only one here and while I make mistakes and typos, I think I do a good job of avoiding most, keeping this readable, and when I do make an error of fact, I acknowledge that quickly and openly. (I’ll remind people that while I can’t make corrections in the emailed newsletters, I do sometimes make corrections on the web site. They are always noted.) UTK is a lean operation, just me and a network of sources that allow me to do this. I thank you for your support as we close Year 23. I’ll have Playoff Previews soon!