Under The Knife 9/16/24
I Get The Feeling You Won't
Let’s make this one free today …
COREY SEAGER, SS TEX (sports hernia)
The Rangers won’t be defending their title, but 2024 wasn’t idle. Jacob deGrom will be back. Max Scherzer likely won’t be. Kumar Rocker made his debut last Thursday and got 7 K’s in four innings (75 pitches). Wyatt Langford established himself while Evan Carter’s season was lost. Jack Leiter showed enough to still dream on him. There’s a lot to build on, but only if the foundation of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is there. Seager heads to surgery to fix a sports hernia … core muscle issue, says Dr. Meyer … and while his ‘24 ends early, there’s no reason not to think he won’t be back to being Corey Seager in ‘25.
This kind of injury is almost rote now. The injury happens, it gets diagnosed a couple weeks later because it’s hard to narrow down even with imaging, and then surgery fixes it. Six weeks later, the player is ready and there’s almost no issues. Some players take a bit longer but very seldom any longer than six weeks. There’s one issue I know of where there was an infection, a risk with any surgery, but even that player came back in 12. With Seager, there’s no reason to think he won’t have a relatively normal off-season and come into the spring (February) at 100 percent.
Seager won’t put up the career-year numbers of his ‘23 campaign, but they’re pretty close. The issue is that this is his second straight year post age-27 where he’s around 120 games. That may end up the new normal and with Sebastian Walcott on the near term horizon, that’s not a bad thing. What’s a bit worrisome is the doubles, cut exactly in half, that mark the real drop in slugging. The Rangers don’t win without being led by Seager and while there’s money to be spent next year, we need to see what Chris Young’s long term plan really is.
TARIK SKUBAL, SP DET (bruised hand)
Comebackers, man. Tarik Skubal took a nasty one off his hand, but avoided a fracture of his pitching hand. It had what I was told was some swelling and bruising, but the Tigers believe that he’ll make his next start, scheduled for Wednesday. They will have a shadow ready, as well as someone who could take the start if Skubal simply doesn’t look comfortable in warmups. Again, the Tigers don’t think this will be necessary. Skubal could get three more starts, which could help his Cy Young candidacy, though if the Tigers don’t stay close with the wild card, they could elect to skip that last one. (Skubal should win, regardless.)
Obviously, a pitcher couldn’t have any sort of protection on his hand, but this season has seen a number of pitcher comebacker injuries. These are always worrisome as exit velocities continue to go up. Anyone that’s thrown batting practice understands the difference between a rocket shot up the middle and something that just rattles the screen. I can’t imagine the difference between an Aaron Judge shot and a normal player, but pitchers simply can’t react. Even though these are statistically rare, there’s still the danger these become much worse than a bruised hand.
The Tigers have been on a run since trading Jack Flaherty and being forced to go with an opener. Rumblings are that AJ Hinch was against both moves, but it’s worked and here they are, just out of wild card position. Losing Skubal would have created some interesting moves, but it doesn’t look like those will be necessary. My question is whether the return of Reese Olson will change the rotation and take away that opener slot, and if so, why?
TYLER GLASNOW, SP LAD (inflamed elbow)
If someone out there wants to knock me for saying … quote “It’s perfectly reasonable to think that Tyler Glasnow will throw 150 innings this season”, well, let them. It was reasonable. Odds? I’d guess 50/50. Foreseeing a complication/injury that’s never happened before to someone in a new context? Hey, I’ll own that if you want to put it on me. As Nate Silver says, 30 percent possibilities happen all the time and a pitcher arm injury is a 30 percent possibility across the board.
The worry here is that this isn’t a Black Swan event. While we’ve never had some sort of flexor tendinitis in a pitcher post-Internal Brace elbow reconstruction, a non-zero set, that doesn’t mean it might not end up common, or regular. There’s still not a lot of specifics on it, but the setback is said to be “non-acute”; there wasn’t a specific event, but merely an acknowledgement that he wasn’t able to pitch without pain.
The Dodgers haven’t said it officially or even fully, but there’s an expectation now that Glasnow won’t make it back, even for the playoffs. The rehab will continue in hopes they make a breakthrough, but more in the hopes they can figure out the cause and the solution so that they don’t go through this next year.
Also of note, Gavin Stone will begin a throwing program this week, but there’s still a lot of questions about whether he’ll be able to get back. Without Stone and Glasnow, the Dodgers are going to have to run at least one of their young starters into October. The Dodgers also acknowledged Clayton Kershaw (toe) won’t be back during the regular season, but aren’t ruling him out for the playoffs. If you’re wondering how he could get ready, my guess is he’d be functionally an opener, though the Dodgers could play fast and loose with restrictions since it’s the playoffs and Kershaw understands the risks and where he’s at in his career.
FRANCISCO LINDOR, SS NYM (inflamed back)
If defense is enough to win Francisco Lindor an MVP, we have to remember that he’s just above one dWAR right now. That’s half a win back of Bobby Witt, a full win back of Matt Chapman, and roughly equal to Gunnar Henderson and Ketel Marte. Heck, Marte isn’t getting a lot of notice, but is actually just behind Lindor in WAR. Now those numbers aren’t the be-all end-all to me, were I still a voter, but they’re a good start to be able to dig in and make some informed decisions.
Of course, Lindor has to be healthy and continue to keep putting up numbers to stay with Shohei Ohtani (and ahead of Marte!) Missing a couple games with back spasms isn’t great for that or for the Mets playoff push, but all indications are that this is muscular, transient, and more an issue of him carrying the team on his back than anything structural. Lindor’s over 600 AB already and 147 games. That’s all of them, so days off aren’t normal. Lindor will have an MRI on Monday which will give more insight on how much time, if any, he will miss.
With him on the bench, the Mets gave Luisangel Acuna his MLB debut and as the return for Max Scherzer, it looks like value. Scherzer helped put a ring on Texas, so fair trade no matter what. I wasn’t able to get a good answer out of the Mets as to whether they’ve double-checked his knees given his brother’s issues, but a Rangers source said that he never had any issues and physicals he had along the way had no sign of any knee issue. Genetics exists and while I doubt the Mets or Rangers did a 23andme workup, that’s information I wonder if we’ll have in the not-too-distant future.
CHAS MCCORMICK, OF HOU (fractured hand)
KYLE TUCKER, OF HOU (fractured tibia)
The Astros turned their season around after early adjustments but to go deeper into the off-season, Joe Espada is going to have to make a few more. He’s got Kyle Tucker back, but he’s clearly not the same as he was, while he’s lost some of the depth with Chas McCormick hitting the IL and perhaps ending his regular season.
McCormick fractured his hand when it hit the wall. It’s small and non-displaced, though the Astros aren’t saying which specific bone it is. It doesn’t really matted as it comes down to when it’s stable and healed enough to grip and hit again. There’s a chance he could come back during the regular season, but that’s unlikely. They may have to make some tough decisions on that first series, since they’re well out of the bye spots.
Tucker is back in the field, but there’s still some hitch in his giddy-up, a technical term. There still appears to be something underneath his sock, perhaps a brace or just a thick taping. Even the pause button didn’t give me a clear enough picture to say more. He’s sitting regularly and while the Sunday homer was a definite good sign, he’s not hitting enough (5 of 20) to say that he’s hitting normally. How much and how well he plays over the next few weeks is going to power how far the Astros go in many ways, and the Astros medical staff should be noted either way.
BYRON BUXTON, OF MIN (inflamed hip)
CARLOS CORREA, SS MIN (plantar fasciitis)
The Twins got both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa back over the course of the weekend, a clear boost to their playoff hopes and their playoff prospects. Keeping them healthy over these last few weeks and into October is key, of course, but credit to the medical staff for getting both of them this deep. Buxton is more known for his fragility, but Correa has a couple chronic conditions that have made him a challenge and will continue to do so. That ankle? Not one of them.
Byron Buxton returned and showed both good movement and good ability. He had a homer on Saturday, then was off Sunday as expected. Rocco Baldelli was clear when Buxton was activated that he wasn’t 100 percent and would be getting regular rest days, so that’s clear. While I didn’t watch all of his Friday and Saturday games, Buxton didn’t appear to be visibly limping or drastically limited in any way. He showed good rotation, ran the bases well, and appears like he could help the team right now. Maintaining that and figuring out just how much he can play while maintaining is the bigger issue now.
Correa came back from his plantar fasciitis on Saturday, then was on the bench Sunday. Since he didn’t have any rehab games, this is simply helping Correa and the medical staff check for any changes in how his feet are dealing with new stresses. It shouldn’t be seen as a setback, but seeing regular rest days through the end of the season shouldn’t surprise anyone. Especially you, since I’m telling you right now to expect them.
Notably, Correa is going to fall well under 550 plate appearances this year after three years at that threshold (plus a “full” 2020). That’s the number where his vesting options start with the 2028 season. This one doesn’t count, but he’s also three years younger at this stage, so it’s notable for those three years at the end of his Twins deal.
Quick Cuts:
Paul Blackburn has a spinal leak and yes, that’s as bad as it sounds. No clarity on how, but he could miss significant time even if surgery isn’t needed … Kyle Schwarber was back in the lineup over the weekend after dealing with an elbow hyperextension. He went 1 for 10, but small sample to blame the elbow … Alec Bohm (hand) came off the IL and started Sunday. He’ll play normally, I’m told … Willson Contreras will have some imaging on his fractured finger as the Cards finalize his return plans. Expect to see him hitting this week and active soon after if it goes well … Not sure how many times I wrote the name “James Paxton” in Under The Knife, but more than he’d like. He’s retiring after another injury filled season. His what if career is an all timer … Alex Cobb returned to the IL with a blister. He could be activated in the last week as the Guardians set their playoff rotation … Merrill Kelly will start for Arizona on Monday. His hamstring issues will be monitored closely, which sounds like a shadow for him … Gabriel Moreno returned to the Arizona lineup without a rehab assignment. He’ll get regular rest as the groin strain is not 100 percent, I’m told … The MRI was clean on Tyler Fitzgerald’s back, but things were still painful over the weekend. No clarity on when he’ll return … Tanner Houck was scratched over the weekend due to shoulder fatigue. Alex Cora called it dead arm and it could push him to the IL, ending his season … Hunter Greene (elbow) threw again over the weekend and everything is on track for him to return during the Reds next homestead. What’s unclear is just how deep he’ll go or if it will be more than a one-time appearance … No comeback for Liam Hendriks this year. The Sox want him to focus on a healthy off-season … No UTK this Friday due to travel.