Under The Knife 9/14/22
In Praise of the Combination
Last night, Joe Ryan threw seven no-hit innings and was replaced at the 106 pitch mark, with Rocco Baldelli subbing in another rookie, Jovani Moran. Moran made it through the eighth and one more out before Bobby Witt Jr rocketed a liner into left. Ryan was visibly angry being pulled and after the game, Baldelli noted that Ryan was four pitches off his season high and that Ryan noted he’d thrown 156 pitches in a minor league game. I couldn’t confirm that one, but Ryan came out of the Rays organization, so I would be really surprised if that was the case.* I couldn’t find one where he’d even gone 100, per Baseball Reference.
I have no issues with what Baldelli did pulling Ryan. I have a bit of an issue if it was pure pitch count and I cannot believe the decision was based solely on that. The Twins are a smart organization with far more tools than a clicker. I have to assume they knew this was his level, saw mechanical changes, or something. If the plan was his hard limit was 110 pitches, 150 throws, something like that and they stuck to it despite the no-hitter, so be it.
Where I have a bit of an issue is putting in Moran. While the no-hitter itself isn’t a big deal, it’s not nothing. A six run lead might dictate that Baldelli can rest his best relievers, the situation and respect for both history and the fans in attendance, not to mention Ryan, means to me that he should be a bit more aggressive. (It’s also a bit of a testament to the Twins pitching development system that when Moran came in, I said “who?” They’ve got a bullpen full of young guys with good stuff. Moran has always had that, but struggled with command.)
In the new normal of baseball in the 2020’s, we’re not going to see a lot of no-hitters, not that they were ever anything but rare. But combined no-hitters? Those we could see, especially if someone ever really got creative. No-hitters have long been a fluke, a pitcher having a good day or a team having an off-day, or some combination. Imagine throwing nine different pitchers at a roster, a whole pitch clock and stuff catalog, and the chances of pulling a no-hitter out of that.
Old schoolers might say that no-hitters are different, that you leave in the pitcher no matter what. I certainly understood that when Clayton Kershaw was pulled on opening day, against those same Twins. Dave Roberts replaced Kershaw at 80 pitches, though Kershaw’s back and the weather were also issues. Alex Vesia and Justin Bruihl weren’t exactly the top options out of the pen either. I’ll agree that we should respect the no-hitter, but we don’t have to rag out the pitcher’s arm to get one. Let’s all respect the combo no-no.
*If anyone knows of that game, please let me know. I’ll update on the site if it exists or if someone can explain what Ryan was referring to.
Now, on to the injuries:
MAX SCHERZER, SP NYM (strained oblique)
In something of a surprise, Max Scherzer is making a rehab start at Triple-A on Wednesday. Scherzer is currently on the IL with what the team calls “fatigue” in his previously strained oblique. From the information I’ve been given, I’d call this another strain, very minor, almost the equivalent of a stress reaction in muscle rather than bone. Scherzer reported feeling something, that feeling of fatigue, to the medical staff, showing he’s got a great amount of trust in them, which is a big difference from other pitchers in past years. That may have saved a bigger problem.
So what of the rehab start? The original plan was to rest Scherzer, let the muscle heal/restore, and then jump back in. This rehab accomplishes two things: first, it keeps him on schedule with throwing workload while shifting where he slots back into the rotation slightly. A source tells me that the Mets have a planned rotation that gets Scherzer and Jacob deGrom set up for being 1-2 into the playoffs. However, that also means that it will likely cost each of them one start, which could be valuable in a tight NL East with the bye at risk.
The expectation is that Scherzer will go a reduced but still substantial amount of pitches, with a return coming on or around September 19th. The reason for the lack of certainty on both is the reason Scherzer pushed for the rehab start versus a sim game. He’s working on something, which I believe is a mechanical change. As I said, Scherzer came out early in that last start because he reported it, but there’s also data, likely from Kinetrax, that showed he had altered the way he was throwing. It not only was a compensation, but changed the shape of his pitches slightly. I’m not sure what minor league stadiums the Mets have Kinetrax in, but may factor in why he went to Syracuse.