Under The Knife 8/27/21
We Have Correspondents in the Field
One of the things being discussed is a salary floor. So far, the leaked proposals from MLB have been horrible. I’ll leave that discussion to the Maury Browns and Joe Sheehans of the world who do that way better than me. But let’s go hypothetical - let’s say a $100m salary floor was put in for 2022. How does a team get there?
According to Spotrac, 11 teams are below that threshold. For a team like the Tigers or Brewers, it’s simple - a matter of a couple million put into extensions for some of their young players, or even generous offers to avoid arbitration. For other teams, it gets more complex. If you ran the Marlins or Pirates, both better than $40m under the floor, who do you extend and by enough to go over the minimum. It’s complex for a team like the Rangers or Royals, who aren’t as far under the floor, but have young players coming in who will be very cheap. Do you give a longer term deal to Bobby Witt or Josh Jung? Those are usually ramp-up deals that put most of the money on the backend. Is a team like the Marlins or Orioles forced to go after a high dollar free agent to fill the gap, or just to overpay drastically for their own talent?
In the end, my guess is if we see a floor, we’ll see a creeping compression at the top and bottom, where the first year is at $70m, the next at $80, and so on, with the same kind of stepped drops at the top “luxury” line. As for how teams fill in, I think we’ll see some weird things and potentially, something like a balancing where the Pirates take on a couple salaries from the Dodgers in return for young cheap players, which is not going to help baseball or Baseball.
And that’s all if we can get a new CBA. In the past couple weeks, I’ve asked owners and people on both sides what they really want to get out of this negotiation and no one could articulate the kind of strong positions that have led to stoppages in the past, or even much of what they’d change besides owners wanting to pay less and players wanting to be paid more. For now, let’s look at the injuries on this Free Friday:
Jacob deGrom SP NYM (strained forearm)
The sequence of events here is intriguing. Jacob deGrom was seen playing catch and even throwing left handed a bit, likely just a goof, but he did make a couple higher intensity throws. The very next day, he had an MRI and the Mets announced things looked good. Note that the catch session appears to have been an attempt to aggravate the elbow and see if they could see any inflammation or stressors inside the forearm and elbow. Calling it “good” after that is notable.
That doesn’t mean deGrom is any closer to a return. DeGrom will begin a throwing program, but a Mets source tells me that it’s ready to be abandoned at a moment’s notice. “The slightest issue and he’s down,” I was told. Essentially, everything will have to go right for deGrom to come back.
And if he does make it back, what’s the role? The Mets have been clear with Noah Syndergaard and I’d discussed tandeming the two, but the Mets haven’t done as much with deGrom. There’s still talk about ramping up, even with only a few days over a month remaining. Getting deGrom back to four, maybe five innings is reachable and certainly useful, but I’m curious how they’d fit it into their rotation. It may be moot if the Mets continue to slide, but getting deGrom back only matters if the Mets have fixed the problem or at least figured out how to maintain it. The Mets have plenty of decisions over this offseason, but answering that question might be at the top of it and there’s no indication that Steve Cohen’s got any answers.
Noah Syndergaard P NYM (post-TJ rehab)
Is Noah Syndergaard pitching in Brooklyn on his first of this rehab stint on Thursday by chance or design? Neither is a wrong answer. If by design, it’s great marketing for an affiliate and a day either way isn’t going to matter much. But it is an element that reminds us there’s often more than the purely medical in these situations?
Regardless, Syndergaard started the game. Not that he’s going to start for the Mets under the current plan, but rehab pitchers go first to guarantee their work and let the manager get that out of the way, planning his pitching behind it. I’ve actually seen a bit of a preference for the seven-inning doubleheaders if a manager can slot a rehab guy in there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the minors actually schedule some of those to add some off days in coming seasons.
He gave up a leadoff homer and went just 16 pitches, but Joe Sheehan was at the game and shared this: “Thursday night in Brooklyn, Noah Syndergaard returned to the mound in a game for the first time since leaving a May 25 rehab start with elbow soreness. Working with a reduced repertoire -- his doctors have told him not to throw his slider, and Syndergaard has chosen to pocket his curve as well -- Syndergaard tossed a 20-pitch inning for the High-A Cyclones against the Aberdeen Shorebirds.
“Syndergaard looked to be throwing at maybe 80% effort, focusing on mechanics and command. He threw his four-seamer at 95-96 mph, on the stadium gun, and mixed in a two-seamer and a changeup. His third pitch of the night, a four-seamer up on 0-2, was tomahawked over the left-field fence by Lamar Sparks. Thor would go on to hit Doran Turchin two batters later before settling down and getting a called strike three and a groundout to complete his inning.
“Unlike his earlier rehab, Syndergaard is preparing for a role as a reliever, with a short amount of time to ramp up and his open discussion of his limited arsenal. He’s not ready for that role yet, but barring more physical setbacks, he could reach the Mets’ bullpen in a week to ten days.”
The key here is how Syndergaard recovers. Will they put him back out there in a day or two? Will they want to see if he can go two innings, or back to back? There’s still questions to be answered on this rehab, but I’m curious if the answers will be based on how he responds physically and if there’s a possibility this is where he stays.
Teejay Antone RP CIN (sprained elbow)
Let me be clear here - I am not blaming any training, technique, or velocity increase for Teejay Antone needing Tommy John surgery, which he’ll have likely had by the time you’re reading this. (UPDATE: He did.) What I am asking, within the broader context of pitching, is whether players like Antone or even like deGrom who see significant velocity increases, do we know whether their body can handle it?
For whatever reason - and the Reds should have a lot of data and hopefully a better answer to this - Antone’s didn’t and he’s out for the rest of the season and most of next, if not all. It’s a loss for a team that remains in the chase, but who’s bullpen has been inconsistent and now the move to dump Sean Doolittle for essentially five pitches of Antone looks a bit different.
The Reds have some hot prospects and Hunter Greene - who’s in his second year/first season back from Tommy John himself - is available from Triple-A. Dropping him and his 100 mph fastball couldn’t hurt, but would start his service clock. We’ll see how the team handles this in both the short and long term, but losing any good pitcher is not going to help the team.
Clayton Kershaw SP LAD (strained forearm)
Clayton Kershaw is back on the mound and he’s starting to throw curveballs, meaning that a rehab assignment can’t be far off. Given his time down, his buildup to starting is going to be tough and … wait, this seems familiar. Kershaw had this same problem at the start of the season a couple seasons back and while the Dodgers didn’t rush him, they took a steeper ramp-up than the science would like. Sometimes, that happens due to the demands of the game and getting Kershaw back, the Dodgers into the playoffs, and towards another hunk of metal is going to overrule the science nine times out of ten.
Kershaw’s next pen is scheduled for today (Friday) and the progression to a rehab should be some sort of live hitter action at the middle of next week. There’s still no clear timetable here and it’s complicated by the situation of that other pitcher the Dodgers are missing. Getting both back is possible and would give the team one heck of a 1 through 4, even if there’s innings limits.
As we’ve seen with others, setbacks with forearm issues are frequent and can re-set an entire rehab. Kershaw simply doesn’t have enough time in the season to have one of those, so it’s a balancing act between readiness and the slight conservative bent of the Dodgers medical staff. We’ll have to see how this plays out, as it could very well be the difference between back to back and one-and-done wild card run.
Rhys Hoskins 1B PHI (core muscle strain)
There will be no more Rhys Hoskins this year, as he heads up the road for core muscle surgery. He’s played through it for a while, but the medical staff and Hoskins have decided that he simply can’t do this safely. While the fix is relatively simple and has a near-automatic six to eight week return, once again, the calendar is the enemy here.
In the longer term, Hoskins should have no issue with this. The injury formerly known as sports hernia is easily corrected under the procedure Dr. William Meyers has perfected at the Vincera Institute. (I love when small hospitals have names that sound like they should be in Marvel movies.)
This won’t help the Phillies theoretical wild card chase and also sets the Phillies up for their first real offseason under Dave Dombrowski, CBA willing. First base is certainly an area where upgrading is easy, but Hoskins is still relatively cheap and reasonably productive, so I’d expect Hoskins to be back, though I’m curious to see how this team can be upgraded under the normal Dombrowski system.
Cavan Biggio IF TOR (sprained elbow)
A Grade I sprain is the least serious of any sprains, usually defined as a 1-33 percent tearing of the ligament. Sometimes it’s lower, 1-25 percent, but it’s far from a full thickness tear and there’s plenty of ligament left, in most cases. The problem for Cavan Biggio is that the one outlier in baseball is the ulnar collateral ligament of the elbow. At between 25 and 33 percent, depending on the surgeon, many will recommend reconstruction - you know, Tommy John surgery.
Biggio injured it on his rehab and he’s breaking down like we simply haven’t seen and wouldn’t expect. Biggio has not been injury prone and genetics seem to help as well. Biggio will be shut down from all activity for a week and it sounds like they may have done PRP or other biologics on the elbow. If things appear to be healing, he could get back to hitting quickly, since the UCL isn’t stressed by that motion. Throwing might be tougher and I don’t see Biggio pushing into the DH role, so his season might be done.
At worst, Tommy John surgery usually takes about six months for position players and has a similar record of successful return. Marcus Semien would be an MVP candidate in most years, but his success is going to make him very expensive, leaving the Blue Jays in an interesting position and a crack of the door open to Biggio getting back to second.
Quick Cuts:
Is Mike Trout done for the season? The Angels are going to make a decision on this “sooner rather than later”, per a team source … Mookie Betts is back for the Dodgers, but rumors he’s needed multiple injections (of what?) to get back are a bit ominous … Yu Darvish had no apparent issues with his back in his last start, but a source told me his release point was slightly higher, so it could still be an issue. He’s winless in his last nine starts, which tells you a lot about the Padres right now … The Rockies aren’t being specific about Trevor Story and his “minor leg issue”, but a source tells me “it’s barely even minor” … I'm told George Springer checked out well on Thursday and is expected to be activated Friday. See above for exciting video content … Corey Kluber will be activated to start Monday’s game. If he does well, it’s a pretty stunning recovery from a tough rotator cuff strain … David Bell says Jesse Winker won’t be swinging for “a couple weeks”. Absent the wild card slot, he’d likely be shut down, but that’s not the case. We’ll have to see exactly when things start up to have any idea of a return … Sonny Gray had a moment on the mound. He stopped, bent his back, called for the AT, did a seated stretch, and then continued, putting together a nice start. My guess is back spasm, but will be curious to hear the full story … Wil Myers was unavailable Thursday with a hamstring strain. With the Padres suddenly crowded outfield, he could get some extra days if needed … Justin Verlander is done for the year, officially, and perhaps done as an Astro. Brent Strom’s status there will determine whether Verlander goes back, according to several insiders … Reid Detmers hits the IL and with no word on why, the assumption is that it is COVID related. If so, he could be back at any point … The Angels take yet another hit as Dylan Bundy goes on the IL with a shoulder strain. It’s quite likely a season ender, given the date … I knock MLB for not doing more research, but here’s one they are doing on occulusion/BFR and I’m very interested:
