Under The Knife 8/26/24
Elvis' Birthday Was Yesterday
What started as an intro here is running as a Special tomorrow. So let’s get right to it:
WILLSON CONTRERAS, C STL (fractured finger)
It’s probably too much to say that one play can change a season for a team, but can two? Willson Contreras’ season will be defined by two injuries, two fractures, that couldn’t have been prevented by any sort of preparation, but still feel somehow like the mere act of being a catcher should have more basic protection. The arm fracture was partly on him, for how and where he set up, but fracturing a finger on a foul is just one of those things in the definition of the position.
The finger will heal and he can have fun with his middle finger being in a splint for the next couple weeks, but there’s some question about whether he can make it back this season. It comes down to grip and how the bone heals. Six weeks is the standard and he’d definitely be at risk for recurrence, but no more than he would during any other play he’s been in. Another foul ball would fracture it, or any of his other nine fingers.
The Cards will lean on Pedro Pages, a big offensive drop, and likely call Ivan Herrera back. Already under 500 and six games back of the wild card, there may well be no reason to rush Contreras back. The team’s construction continues to be problematic and with Paul Goldschmidt a free agent and a bridge rotation having bridged to … Erik Fedde? … this off-season is going to be very interesting for a team not used to having interesting off-seasons.
YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO, SP LAD (strained cuff)
SHOHEI OHTANI, DH/SP LAD (sprained elbow/rehab)
It’s just a two game lead as I write this Sunday afternoon with the Diamondbacks and Padres surging. In some ways, this division may well be decided by which of them gets healthy and can surge through September. The Dodgers hope that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is one of those, not only because their rotation is a mess, but because a healthy YY would be a real playoff weapon. Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw make a nice three-man, with Jack Flaherty a solid fourth as needed.
Yamamoto threw a bullpen over the weekend and will now head out on a rehab assignment. There’s reports with both Wednesday and Thursday as possibilities, though where is a question. The nearby Quakes are on the road, but so are Tulsa and OKC. (Late word is that it will be OKC, on the road at Round Rock which is also “Pickleball Night.”) With three innings in the pen, I’d imagine YY will be asked to go about 50 pitches in his first start. While the team has talked about mid-September, his progression could make that a bit quicker depending on how you define “mid.”
Shohei Ohtani continued his throwing progression from elbow reconstruction last fall by getting on a mound. It was not a full-go session, but getting to 40-40 isn’t enough for the MVP. Now there’s more than a chance that Ohtani pitches for the Dodgers this season, though as I’ve detailed, I think the complications of a rehab would make it difficult for him to ramp up to a starter level with the time left in the season. The Dodgers’ official position is still that he’s not going to pitch this year, but they don’t seem quite as adamant when stating it. Ohtani as playoff pitcher? I think so. Ohtani closing for Yamamoto? Maybe.
[A discussion with Joe Sheehan points out that he could go as an opener as well. Joe points to the issues with warming up while often needing to bat in the half-inning before entering a game. I agree, opening for an inning could work, though I’m not sure it helps as much as using him as a Trout-killing closer. Joe suggests an Ohtani/Kershaw pairing, which I think works given how different they are. As to the warm up, I’ll note that the notion of bullpens is kind of quaint. Hitters have cages just behind dugouts in most stadiums now, often outfitted with advanced tech and video. There’s no reason a mound wouldn’t fit there either.]
One other quick note here - while calling around on these, one scout who’d recently seen Jared Karros pitching in Tulsa said that with River Ryan down, Karros quickly becomes one of the best near-ready arms and a potential ‘25 rotation piece. The Dodgers should get several arms back, but the 4/5 slots behind Yamamoto, Ohtani, and Tyler Glasnow should be competitive, especially if Clayton Kershaw steps away as expected.