Under The Knife 8/25/23

Changing Sox, Losing Unicorns

Welcome to the new subscribers coming from yesterday’s appearance on MLB Network and other sources. They’re normally not this long, but I go where I need to go.Yes, I have more on Ohtani below, so thanks for supporting my work!

The White Sox fired Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn. I have nothing bad to say about either, but results count. Williams had been with the organization since 1992, while Hahn had been in the GM slot since 2012. That’s a long time and the results overall were good, but not recently. Some of that comes down to decisions they didn’t make, like the Tony La Russa fiasco, but in the end, almost every GM will be fired.

The news surprised me when it came out Tuesday night, especially on the heels of “news” that Jerry Reinsdorf is “considering all options” when it comes to replacing whatever it is you want to call the stadium they currently play at. I’m old enough to remember the last time that happened. Reinsdorf had the Bulls at peak as part of his play then, but not so much now and at age-87, thinking about 2029 is pretty bold.

Last time brought us close to the St. Petersburg Sailors, which brought us Tropicana Field and eventually the Rays, as part of the deal not to sue MLB and the White Sox. Threatening a move, to the suburbs or to Nashville, rings hollow right now. Sure, Nashville has an ownership group, but there’s issues there, like a stadium location, let alone financing, and as Vegas is learning, would you rather take on an existing team and ownership, or wait on the clean slate of expansion down the line?

More surprising were early reports that the Sox were looking to stay internal, with several reporting that AGM Chris Getz was the lead candidate for the job. I'm still adjusting to Getz not being a player, let alone a GM. It’s also reported that Dayton Moore, the longtime Royals GM now in a role with the Rangers, would come in with a lead role. If true, this recalls what happened in KC, where almost everything but Moore stayed in place and you can see how that’s gone over the past couple years.

Not only is Getz young and relatively inexperienced, it’s hard to call this change. Not considering anyone else - especially a minority - is going to be a tough sell to Sox fans and perhaps other owners. There’s well qualified people out there - James Click and Jon Daniels deserve second swings, while Matt Kleine, James Harris, and Oz Ocampo all get added to the top of shortlists for very good reasons.

A combo plate of Getz and Moore make some sense, especially given Moore’s connection to Pedro Grifol, who was given a vote of confidence in all this. Grifol could be the big winner, with a bigger voice in personnel if he gets his guys in the front office. Mentions of names like Theo Epstein and Jim Hendry have been tossed out around the web, but neither is likely for multiple reasons.

But sense doesn’t always equal good. There’s no reason to think Moore would do things differently than he did in Kansas City and Getz’s experience pales in comparison to not some, but all of the names above. It’s one thing to think someone is good and capable who could grow into the position and another to give someone a position over people more good and more capable. Worse, handing Getz (or any white male internal candidate) the job without even an interview process is bad for ball.

(Oh, and Tony La Russa? Yeah this couldn’t have gone any worse. It’s not a process, it’s calling some guys you know from the bar to come down and help with your fantasy team. You know it’s not going to go well, but those are your guys, and when you own the team, you get to do as many dumb things as you want. Honestly, Bob Nightengale could tweet out that Daniel LaRusso, a fictional character, was going to run the team and I’d say “oh, at least it’s not Tony.”)

We’ll see how this all plays out on all fronts over the next months and years, and whether there will be any more internal changes at the Sox, but for now, let’s get to the injuries:

SHOHEI OHTANI, DH/SP LAA (sprained elbow)

From June 27th to now, Shohei Ohtani (Pitcher’s Version) had left a start early six times. On Wednesday, it was 26 pitches before what the Angels initially called “arm fatigue.” After the doubleheader, in which Ohtani hit as DH, the team announced that Ohtani had a sprained UCL and wouldn’t pitch for the rest of the regular season, pending further tests and consultations. Dr. Neal ElAttrache did Ohtani’s 2018 Tommy John, so I imagine he will be one of the earliest appointments.

One of the things I missed while writing up the UTK Flash is the speed with which Ohtani was able to have his elbow tested and get back for Game 2. MRIs aren’t a quick process, even if you have a machine close by and can skip the line. I failed to consider that the diagnostic done was an ultrasound, largely because I can’t remember a team announcing something like this without the MRI to confirm. I’m told reliably that he did not leave the stadium. (I’ll once again invite you to read Travis Sawchik’s great article on imaging, which will give you some insight on how Ohtani is being diagnosed.)

I wrote this before the injury, but it still makes some sense: “Already on a special schedule and a couple years post-Tommy John surgery, the Angels are going to have to make a hard look at Ohtani and how to best use him in September. I know, they’re “all in” but at some point they’re going to realize they’re not in the playoffs. While Ohtani’s two-way mastery is unmatched in the history of baseball, might they be better to shut down Ohtani (P) and see whether that can help Ohtani (DH) make a run at 62? At 44 homers and a month to go, the ticket sales and national attention that Aaron Judge added last year would have to look pretty good to a team like the Angels.”

There are three very good comps to check depending on what is decided as far as a course of treatment. The first is Bryce Harper, who played much of the second half of last season with a sprained elbow. It didn’t seem to affect his hitting. When he had Tommy John, he missed the first part of this season, though many question why. (More on this below.) The second is Trevor Story. He had a repair and returned to the Sox relatively quickly, but not so much as InternalBrace procedures have done for non-pro players, who are frankly more willing to take on risk than MLB teams with millions of guaranteed dollars in players.

Finally, Ohtani himself is the best comp. He’s been through this before, come back very well, and his hitting wasn’t affected in his post-Tommy John season, at least that I could tell from his production. Yes, he made a big jump up in ‘22, but those are unicorn numbers and there’s no indication that the elbow was holding him back in ‘21.

One doctor from another MLB team texted to say that he’d be surprised if a final decision was made quickly. “A team is going to want a say,” he said, but I’m not sure. A team signing Ohtani would have to feel comfortable, but if he goes to one of the top surgeons, as he did for his first with Dr. ElAttrache, I doubt many teams would balk.

This is one of the most consequential injuries I can remember. Ohtani’s upcoming decision was already going to change the course of a franchise. Adding this complication to it could change the course of several, let alone the course of a Hall of Fame career. There’s lots more to come on this one as we learn more about how serious the sprain is and what Ohtani decides to do about it.

MIKE TROUT, OF LAA (fractured wrist)