Under The Knife 8/21/23

Getting Heated

Teams are up and down, but with less than six weeks left in the season, decisions are being made. Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman top the list, but who else is on the hot seat? And who’s on deck for whatever positions turn up? The Yankees is almost a unique situation and I don’t believe there are that many jobs that will open that most in MLB will notice. However, I do think there will be a couple slots and any team that has one has to consider Sig Megdal. A vet of the Cardinals, Astros, and now AGM with the surging Orioles, there’s no one better and available to manage a turnaround.

The downside is, where? For Megdal and a handful of other people that will be on the shortlists, there’s once again an off-season without many openings. That’s good for the stability of baseball, I guess, but it’s bad for those in front offices that are “up and coming,” or waiting for a second shot, like James Click. Both New York and St Louis are likely to stay the course with their longtime shot callers, while the same is true in Kansas City and Colorado, where stability is valued as well. The Angels? Maybe, especially if they continue to fade and know they’ll lose Shohei Ohtani. All in works when it works and you’re usually out when it doesn’t.

San Diego? The Mets? Whither David Stearns, who most think is ticketed for the latter. Oakland’s not moving, neither is Washington, and with the White Sox, it would surprise me. In each of those cases, the field manager is probably as stable as the GM, save with the White Sox and Angels. Some have mentioned Dusty Baker might step aside, but he didn’t when he won the hunk of metal and failing that, I think he wants a victory lap, so I think next year might be Dusty’s sunset.

The off-season will be focused on where Shohei Ohtani signs and for how much. The outrage will go high on the salary, while the contract of Aaron Rodgers is worth both a big stack of cash and isn’t worth the paper it’s written on. Baseball doesn’t need the machinations because it has guaranteed contracts, but it will take the hit when Ohtani signs for slightly less than Jaylen Brown. Behind the scenes is where it counts, and I’m waiting for some of that front office talent to rise as well.

For now, let’s get to the injuries:

TONY GONSOLIN, SP LAD (strained forearm)

Tony Gonsolin took the Dodgers as far as he could. There had been rumblings for months that it wasn’t just Clayton Kershaw that was pitching through injuries, though I could never nail down just why. We all found out when Gonsolin not only went on the IL, but admitted his season, including the playoffs, was done due to a forearm strain.

Gonsolin will have imaging done early in the week and will meet with both team doc Neal ElAttrache and others to determine the course of his rehab and possible surgery. Losing Gonsolin now hurts, if only because the Dodgers have been searching for innings all year and Gonsolin was not only a Cy contender last year until a late season injury cost him time, he’s been among the most available starters. It ends at 103 inning after a brutal loss showed his elbow wasn’t going to make it.

Which leaves the Dodgers once again very short of innings. Julio Urias and Lance Lynn should be relatively stable, with Kershaw behind them in the theoretical playoff rotation. Bobby Miller has been great, but he’s pushing an innings high and likely a run into the playoffs. Walker Buehler is on the horizon, but there’s Ryan Pepiot and Gavin Stone, then the abyss. I’m telling you, Dave Roberts should win Manager of the Year going away if this team wins its division.

MIKE TROUT, OF LAA (fractured wrist)

Mike Trout hit off live pitchers this weekend and the expectation is that he’ll be activated as soon as Monday. The Angels are at home against the Reds, which could have been a bit of a problem. However, they’ll miss Hunter Greene (who pitched Sunday in his return. More on that below.) which could have been a problem for Trout. One of the things the Angels and Trout’s people are worried about is how his wrist will deal with higher energy.

I wasn’t sure “energy” was the right term, so I went to the expert. Keenan Long runs Longball Labs, which helps select the best bats for some of the best hitters in the game. You can read more about it in Chapter 2 of The Science of Baseball. I asked Long what the issue would be for Trout and he said it’s more about vibrations than energy.

Long explained to me that the ball and bat are only in contact for a millisecond, but that how much it vibrates depends on where and how hard the impact is. With a big mishit, you get the sting or buzz we all remember from Little League. In technical terms, Long said “The farther the impact is from the 2nd bending mode of vibration, the worse it gets in terms of trauma to the hands of the hitter (and it also gets worse in terms of the exit velocity). “

So a mis-hit on a hard fastball could be an issue for Trout, or anyone else with hand or wrist problems. Is there a way to mitigate that? As currently constructed, no. Hitters will often use padding or spacers to help when they have injuries, but this is going to be an interesting case. I’ll be watching not only how hard the ball goes out with Trout, but how hard it comes in.

HUNTER GREENE, SP CIN (inflamed hip)