Under The Knife 8/20/21

Fifty Innings in Ten Years

Right now there’s only five starters over 150 innings, six if you include Zack Greinke’s 149 2/3. That means we might not have a 200 inning starter at all. The last 300 inning starter was Steve Carlton in 1980 and from there, it’s come down pretty steadily.

300: Steve Carlton, 1980
290: Bert Blyleven, 1985
280: Charlie Hough, 1987
270: Randy Johnson, 1999
260: Roy Halladay, 2003
250: Justin Verlander, 2011
240: David Price, 2014
230: David Price, 2016
220: Justin Verlander, 2019

The drop-off this year seems extreme and I think is a reaction to 2020, so seeing things creep back to the 220-230 range next season wouldn’t surprise me, though how this offseason goes in terms of public health could have a lot to do with that. In previous seasons that were shortened - strike years, that is - the numbers bounced back in line quickly, but we’ve also seen innings drop by 50 or more in just a decade. This is on injuries, not pitch counts

We’re seeing our best pitchers going less and less, transferring those innings not to the wipeout relievers, but often to the eighth or ninth best starter but we’re not reducing injuries at all, so what’s the return? This is an area where a baseball team could get a massive advantage, but even the most progressive teams haven’t been able to make that push. MLB Pitching is in stasis at best, regressing more likely, and someone needs to do something about it and the sooner the better.

Let’s get to the injuries:

Mookie Betts OF LAD (strained hip)

Mookie Betts and Mike Trout have been out a significant part of the season and somehow, this isn’t a big deal to much of baseball. I realize I look at baseball through a unique lens, but how is this not leading MLB Network every night? How is this not being addressed? How have people not missed them? Yes, baseball has a deep talent pool and in the year of Shohei Ohtani, maybe Trout’s been a bit overshadowed. Betts’ absence was covered by the Dodgers at the deadline. But this still surprises and worries me. Is baseball simply accepting of injuries, even to its best players, so much that we look past it completely? Pardon me while I have a bit of an existential crisis over here.

Betts has been making rapid progress lately. He says he has no pain in the hip and while Dave Roberts said he’s only been swinging a bat in the past few days, there’s a lot of indication that Dave … let’s say he misspoke. Betts will do more work this weekend and a sim game on Sunday will be a big decision point. There’s indication that he might not need a rehab assignment, a bit of a surprise, so absent him looking perfect and running well, I think a short trip might still be in the offing.

It’s odd that things were quiet, then sudden. Betts’ hip issue was never considered as serious as Luis Robert’s, but after dealing with this issue for the better part of a month, it seems the medical staff found something. This is just a guess, but I think we’re going to find out there’s something more that went on and a hip labrum issue fits the way this has gone. Again, no evidence here, but regardless, this one bears following if only because the upside on Betts is so big and the long term play for the Dodgers would seem risky. From my talks over the last few weeks, all the way back to the trade deadline, this team isn’t thinking about anything past the end of this season.

Freddy Peralta SP MIL (inflamed shoulder)

The Brewers can’t think about October just yet, but they’ve had some signs that their great rotation does need to be watched closely if they’re going to go deep. Freddy Peralta hits the IL after his shoulder got tight in his last start, but a source tells me that what Craig Counsell told the media is dead on. Peralta has a little inflammation in his shoulder, felt he’d lost some mobility, and this rest is so the medical staff can get some time with him and get it as close to normal as possible.

Peralta, along with Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams have dealt with minor injuries, but at the same time are all looking at significant innings increases. We know that almost all healthy pitchers will see the same, but how do we do any sort of comparison between the two seasons? Workload is a better measure than innings or pitches, but if it’s measured inside, outside we don’t know what they’re looking at, the kind of black box that can be frustrating.

Peralta is expected to be a minimum stay and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Brewers start to skip some starts or buy their starters some extra rest over the next few weeks. Eric Lauer will step in for Peralta’s expected missed start, with the Brewers smart to have a functional swingman in place for this very reason. I think Lauer could sort of stick in the rotation, being plugged in to skip or push back starts through September.

Jesse Winker OF CIN (strained intracostal)

The Reds put Jesse Winker on the IL Monday with an intracostal strain, which is painful, but not serious. I do love that autocorrect always tries to make this an intracoastal strain, which sounds like an injury Jimmy Buffett or Sonny Crockett would have. For Winker, it was expected to be just a minimum ten days while the mild strain calmed down, but it could be more.

As yet, Winker hasn’t done much and certainly isn’t doing the rotational activities that can cause the intracostal muscles - the ones between the ribs that are so tasty in barbecue (but pig, not human, please) - stress. Things like hitting and throwing are the last to be tested for the obvious reasons, so seeing Winker do either will be a sign that he’s close.

Winker has had a quietly great year for a Reds team that’s been in contention, but most of the attention has been on the Joey Votto resurgence, yet Winker has half a WAR better so far. (I will admit that WAR this year doesn’t pass the eye test for some reason and Wade Miley at 5.8 is one of the big reasons.) Winker has basically become what the Reds thought Nick Senzel would be, minus the positional flexibility. If the Reds are just being conservative here, knowing they’ll need Winker productive for the late push, that’s smart. If this is a bit more serious than they’ve let on and we don’t see him swinging by early next week, there’s more of an issue.

Trevor Bauer SP LAD (administrative leave)

I’m not going to address anything about his case or whether the Dodgers should allow him to wear their uniform again, or whether MLB’s domestic violence policy is worth the paper it’s printed on. But I have been asked a question by a reader so I will answer it. The question is “Given Bauer’s time off and no clear sign that he’s been throwing, how quickly could he get back on the mound, in theory?”

I think there’s a couple things that have to be addressed here and they go hand in hand. We do not know what Bauer did during his time off. I’ve seen a photo of him at a National Park, he was at his hearing, but we do know Bauer has long been an advocate of not taking time off. We know where he wasn’t, but we don’t know where or even if he worked out. My guess is he maintained his routine to some extent, if nothing else to continue on with his personal plan as normal.

If Bauer kept up his workload, being off the mound in game situations isn’t a minor concern, but how quickly he gets back to game ready is different from game condition. Game condition - having the proper chronic workload built up - can require a long ramp up to be done safely. If that has been maintained, the game ready part could come quickly. Could he pitch tomorrow? I don’t know, but Bauer does. When will that happen? I don’t know, but look for clues like whether his work looks more like a ramp up or whether it’s typical side work that’s leading to a start.

Yadier Molina C STL (no injury)

Bengie Molina caught until he was 35. Jose Molina caught until he was 39. Yadier Molina is in his age-38 season, but straddles with a July birthday. He’s 39 now and will be 40 in the second half of next season. Given what we know about the Molinas, is it any surprise that Yadier is about to exceed his brothers again? The rumor is that Molina is about to sign a one-year deal to stay with the Cards in 2022 at a very similar valuation to this year.

Yes, Yadier is a better player than both brothers and yes, he’s got significantly more workload, but while Yadier is not the player he was at 29, he’s still pretty solid at 39, especially with a bit more rest. I’m sure the Cardinals wish they had a ready replacement, who would be cheaper and if not taking over, at least taking some of the load in preparation for the eventual end of Molina’s run. Ivan Herrera isn’t lighting up Double-A, so the Cards’ best option is likely even another slightly declined Molina season.

Is it risky? Yes. There’s not many catchers who have been playing at all at this age, let alone playing at a positive starting level. You’re talking about all time greats like Yogi Berra and Mike Piazza, who both closed out at 38 but were in deep decline and caught less and less. Johnny Bench was going into the Hall at the age Molina will be next year. You don’t predict the black swans and Molina is as big an outlier as exists in modern baseball.

Quick Cuts:

Clayton Kershaw is throwing at 90 feet. That’s not even Frank Jobe’s therapeutic distance, so he’s a ways off … While Ian Anderson’s last rehab start on Tuesday went well, the Braves seem to be leaning to have him make one more this weekend. The sudden depth gives them the room, but they’ll have to make deployment decisions soon enough … Corey Kluber went 56 pitches and things went well. He made all his side work so the next rehab outing should get him around 70, where he could force the Yankees to make some decisions … Jordan Hicks threw a pen this week and the Cards think they could get him back in September. There’s not much minor league season left, but the complex is there, so we’ll have to see how the Cards handle Hicks’ next steps … Alex Cobb is making some progress but there’s a chance he doesn’t make it back this season. The Angels will make a decision around September 1 … Expect Pete Fairbanks to head to Durham for a rehab assignment. The Rays want to see his command and his recovery, so expect it to be about a week, with a back-to-back in there … Thanks for all the feedback on the book cover. Glad most of you enjoyed it! Since this one’s free, I’ll add it in again today for that crowd: