Under The Knife 8/13/25

Not Dead Yet

It’s mid-August. Is the playoff race over? Mostly yes … and a bit of no.

For some teams, the math says “thanks for playing” and the plane tickets can be booked for October 2. Baltimore in the AL East? The decimals in their playoff column are just an obituary written in code. 0.0074% isn’t hope, it’s an acknowledgement that in a season where almost everything has gone wrong, the team needs to make decisions about the why and about next year. Same for the White Sox, Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies, who are now just playing for arbitration cases and pride. In the Rockies case, they’re just hoping to avoid Cleveland Spider comparisons

But if you squint - and by squint, I mean ignore your better instincts - there are still knives out in a lot of divisions. The AL East is the tightest knife fight, with Toronto, Boston, and New York all sitting between 91.6 and 89.3 projected wins. Toronto has a 51 percent division edge, but that’s really just one bad week from flipping. The Sox and Yankees are basically statistical twins: same average wins, same playoff odds, same ability to both scare and frustrate their fanbases.

The AL Central is less a fight and more an audition for “Most Likely to Be Swept in October.” Detroit’s 89 percent division win probability means they’ve got the inside track, but Cleveland and Kansas City are doing the “we’re not dead yet” routine. Both are clinging to double-digit playoff odds, which is more than most expected back in April.

In the AL West, the Mariners’ 19.7 percent jump in playoff odds over the last week is the biggest story. They’ve gone from “maybe” to “probable” while the Rangers lost 16 points and tumbled toward the outside. Houston’s in a coin flip with Seattle for the division, and both are solid Wild Card cushions away from breathing too hard.

The National League is more polarized. In the East, Philadelphia is done with suspense: 97.7 percent playoff odds and an 88 percent division lock mean they could probably run open tryouts in September and rest their deep rotation. The Mets have been yo-yoing all season, but a 23-point drop in the last week is the wrong kind of drama.

The NL Central is the most fun, at least if you like good teams slugging it out. Milwaukee and Chicago both have over 99 percent playoff odds — the only question is who gets to host Game 1 in October. That leaves the Reds and Cardinals fighting over scraps, with the Reds showing just enough life to make Cincinnati sports talk callers dream dangerous dreams.

The NL West is the Dodgers doing Dodger things, but the Padres are sticking within striking distance. Their recent bump means the division isn’t completely iced, though the Dodgers’ 71 percent division probability says it probably is. The Giants are lingering like a bad cold at 16 percent, but they’ll need more than Vitamin C to get back in it.

Moreover, these odds are run with existing teams. Clay Davenport did it a million times for these numbers, but injuries are the factor that’s not included. One of those alone can change a race overnight. I won’t curse any teams by saying names, but if a top contender suddenly loses their ace, they’re not out of the playoffs, but they’re a lot less scary in a short series. Don’t discount that and if you figure out how to account for it, let me know. (I have theories.)

So, is the playoff race over? For half the league, absolutely. For the other half, we’re entering the phase where one team’s hot week means another’s season is a half-dozen at-bats from ending. That’s why mid-August baseball still works. It’s not over until the decimal point hits zero, even if we can likely tell exactly who we’ll see in October here in this heat.

(All of these figures are from ClayDavenport.com, which is an indispensable and free resource. Clay deserves more recognition, always has. The stats were as of August 10th, so forgive me for going a bit early but I had more time over the weekend!)

Now, on to the injuries:

GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ, SP BAL (inflamed elbow)
FELIX BAUTISTA, RP BAL (inflamed shoulder)

Grayson Rodriguez had surgery on Monday, removing a bone spur from his pitching elbow and likely cleaning up any other debris in the area. It’s a mundane end to a saga that has kept Rodriguez out and up as a symbol of a disappointing and frustrating season for a team expected to contend and now in something of an identity crisis.

The surgery itself is a nothing. Surgeons rightly compare it to the old game Operation - reach in, snip off the spur, rinse, and close. With a scope, it’s just that easy and the healing time is minimal. There are players in the UTK era that came back in fifteen days to play, though that was a short period of time that seems to have some longer-term consequences. The game as a whole is much, much more conservative about timelines and with Rodriguez, there’s no games for him to get back to in about six weeks, though we should see him throwing before this season is done.

Simple, yes, and so it should be done, right? Well that’s why the Orioles will be jumping right back into the rehab process to see how the elbow responds. In theory, yes, this should clear things up, but there’s still the lat issue that recurs and even the elbow might just grow another spur if there’s something irritating it, like a recurring clang of the bones banging into each other every pitch.

The question now becomes about the model in Baltimore. I have questions about how someone who runs a place like Carlyle is saying he’s hands off. (One other note if you look at that bio. All those things that guy’s done and what does he list first? Owns the Orioles.) There have been whole books written about the Houston Astros, but really, we’ve only seen two generations of players there. There was the first wave, largely led by Jose Altuve, then bolstered by the tank-picks like Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman. They brought up enough young pitching to contend, made a couple bold moves (Justin Verlander being the big one) and won a couple World Series as that first generation turned over (and even returned in the case of Correa.)

It’s an object lesson on the Orioles, who are still early in that first generation. They have a ton of young field talent and they’re at the point where extensions or replacements have to be considered. What the Orioles have lacked is a little bit of luck, the bold moves that once could have been chalked up to ownership, and the depth behind those top players. Losing too many for a full season, like Rodriguez, chips away at the true talent level, but the hope is that after a simple surgery, Rodriguez’s ‘26 will be more simple and successful.

At the same time, the Orioles are shutting down Felix Bautista. The inflammation in his shoulder hasn’t responded to treatment so the rest and more aggressive treatment should allow them to make a better judgement about where he’s going to be. The elbow-to-shoulder issue is a classic one for a kinetic chain issue and is certainly a big negative.

I’ve got three Royals injuries down there, big news on a top closer, plus another long Quick Cuts as August heats up. I have an epic rant coming, caused by a trip to a ballpark, on Friday that you’ll want to read so consider subscribing now.