Under The Knife 8/1/25

A Troubling Study

I’ll let others break down the trade deadline, but here, I want to highlight a very troubling study. This long term survey, done by AT Still University and Datalys, can be summarized easily: economics cost injuries. Travel baseball has taken over the prep landscape, like it or not, and not only is it pricing out some players, it’s getting them hurt. The lack of quality, affordable care, both on and off the field, is leading to more injuries at the youth level for those that can’t afford their own medical staff and are less likely to have adequate care after injuries.

I’m reminded of a story I was told about Marquis Grissom. If you don’t remember Grissom, he was a very physically talented outfielder that had a long career that always seemed stunted by injuries. He had a lot of leg injuries, especially hamstring, and after writing about them, a front office type took me aside and told me what he thought was the reason. Grissom had grown up poor and at one point, injured his leg and played through what they now believed was a broken fibula. It healed slightly off, so one leg was slightly shorter and his foot supinated sharply when running. This was the Oughts, so we didn’t have nearly the gait analysis info we have now, but it stuck with me as to the consequences of poverty being not just a lack of opportunity, but forcing a player to suffer more and have to overcome physical challenges others would not.

(Of note, I’ve never been able to confirm this story, though I admittedly haven’t tried for years. I don’t know what Grissom has been doing since coaching in the early 2010s. Anyone?)

Anyone that’s been to Grand Park or Lakepoint sees how big travel ball has become. It’s an industry and one that is economically divided. It costs a lot of money to play baseball in 2025 and most players show up with a bag full of $500 bats, a glove worth more than my first truck, and cleats that are as much fashion statement as tool. The parents have travelled, hosteled, and team-fee’d before they even walk in and pay the $60 day pass fee to watch their own kids play.

The game is already divided, almost bifurcated, and while we can point to great minority or Latin players or pat ourselves on the back with Jackie Robinson Day, I wonder if a modern Willie Mays, growing up in Mobile, Alabama in the heart of Jim Crow, would have been able to pay to play alongside the rich suburban kids who make up the bulk of travel teams. If you can’t immediately say yes, you risk the next star of the game being priced out and deciding to play something else, or worse. That’s a problem for the game and one I’d love to see MLB address.

Sometimes “next man up” is ten years out. Too many of them are turned away at the gate or limping off the field.

On to the injuries:

ISAAC PAREDES, IF HOU (strained hamstring)
JEREMY PENA, SS HOU (strained ribs)

Injuries have a cost and for the Astros, it’s $103.4 million (minus $30 million or so) or how much Tim Dierkes reported is still left on Carlos Correa’s contract that he signed after two different teams failed him on the physical for even bigger contracts, another cost. The determining factor isn’t that the Astros know him or that the Twins are shedding pieces - both true - but that Isaac Paredes is done for the season. Even with that known, or perhaps in part because of it, the Astros got a deal done to fill in the third base gap.

Paredes is, as I have reported, likely to choose season-ending hamstring surgery and while the Astros nor Paredes’ people haven’t confirmed it as of the time I type this on Thursday evening, a trusted source tells me that the team knew it as of Tuesday. The Astros weren’t thrilled I put it out there, but I was hardly alone nor definitive beyond the information I had. Did that cost them more? I doubt it, since few were in on Correa.

Hamstring repairs are a tricky thing. I often use the example of “cut your steak, then sew it back together.” That’s what sewing muscle back together is, along with the hope that the fibers will heal correctly. It’s technique, then prayer. Many players do come back from it well and the hope is that Paredes is one of them. We should know well ahead of spring training, giving the Astros plenty of time to make a decision on what to do for next year. Paredes becomes, after the deal, a real non-tender possibility and an interesting possibility for a team looking for a pillow deal upgrade in the infield next season.

With Correa ostensibly at third, Jeremy Pena’s return on Friday to short will be an odd journey. This is what the Astros wouldn’t do for Alex Bregman and end up with an infield that’s familiar by way of a roundabout construction. We still really don’t know what the philosophy of the Astros front office is, because it’s basically whoever has Jim Crane’s ear. Dana Brown is the GM, but he has about as much control as I do and no, that’s not an exaggeration.

RONALD ACUNA, OF ATL (strained calf)

Here’s the thing to remember about Achilles injuries: 99% of the time, the player knows instantly and the medical staff knows seconds after touching the player whether or not the Achilles is intact. The MRI is for insurance purposes, mostly. As Ronald Acuna hobbled off the field, we don’t know for sure, but the body language by both he and the staff is concerned, not resigned.

The MRI in this case told the Braves what it was, a relatively minor calf strain. Which isn’t to say it’s nothing. People around Indianapolis know that a calf strain, especially one low on the muscle and near the Achilles, can lead to an issue there. The calf and Achilles are really one structure, with the tendon emerging from the muscle and not really having a clear border, so a strain (tear) can extend down, or across, or even rupture. It’s estimated that as many as a quarter of all “Achilles ruptures” actually happen in the muscular part of the structure, though the resulting loss of function and need for repair are the same. The Braves definitely want to guard against that and can be conservative with Acuna.

To summarize what we know now, it’s a mild strain, the Braves will likely be very conservative, and the context of the season reinforces that. While the risk of a rupture isn’t zero, it’s low once the muscle has healed, so seeing Acuna miss weeks would not be a surprise.

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