Under The Knife 7/9/21
Get Ready for the Future, Kids
The MLB Draft is this weekend and while it remains the runt of the litter when it comes to drafts, I’m old enough to remember when it was a conference call. Now, ESPN and MLB Network will do the thing and this year is a little more normal than last year, though still a much shorter affair. Add in that two of the top picks went on a big run in the College World Series and this feels more like the NFL Draft than it has in a while. There’s intrigue, mystery, and a lot of uncertainty from the first pick on. I have no idea who the first pick is and from what I can tell talking to front offices, scouts, and the medical personnel double checking files, neither does anyone else, all the way up to the first overall pick.
I can tell you that Jack Leiter is going to be a top pick and I don’t just think that he’ll be a good pitcher, I have the data to back it up.
This PitchAI report is something you’re going to see during MLB’s broadcast and you can check out a couple more in Kiley McDaniel’s article over at ESPN. McDaniel is right in that Leiter is basically a “Walker Buehler starter kit.” Same size, same alma mater, same great stuff. When we look at this data, we can see why - elite arm speed, efficient delivery, and explosive power in several areas of his delivery. Pay special attention to his front knee - not only does he stride long, he explodes the extension phase, something we’re just now learning how important it is, largely because we haven’t had access to this kind of data before.
Yes, Leiter has a Tommy John in his file, but so do a lot of pitchers. In fact, two that had it this season might be picked in the first round, and at least one in the top twenty or higher. (Gunnar Hoagland.) You can also see that his elbow torque is relatively low. This is a sample of one, but I’ve seen multiple pitches run through PitchAI and he’s consistently on the lower end of the scale for someone that throws that hard. He has genetic gifts, but managed correctly, he’s got the chance to be even better.
Clayton Kershaw SP LAD (strained forearm)
Clayton Kershaw isn’t dead and while many think that forearm strain = upcoming Tommy John, you people know that isn’t the case. But it’s also not never the case. By the time you read this, the Dodgers will know (and I’ll follow up with a flash if necessary.) Kershaw will have an MRI Friday morning which will tell us just how severe the strain is and how much, if any, other damage there is.
Kershaw came out at 54 pitches in his last start, but there was no moment during the start where I saw something happen. There were a couple times he looked a bit uncomfortable, but I imagine we could find that in most starts. He came out due to rain delay, so the injury was a surprise. Again, without knowing the severity, it’s tough to put any timeline on him here.
Kershaw doesn’t have an extensive history with arm issues. He’s had some shoulder problems, but it’s really been the back that has troubled him for the last few years, with the Dodgers medical staff keeping him available and effective more often that not, though some flare ups have been ill-timed. A source tells me that while Kershaw has a normal pre- and post-game routine, he doesn’t do anything that indicates that his elbow has been any more of an issue over the past few seasons.
The Dodgers rotation troubles go beyond Kershaw. While Trevor Bauer’s issues don’t fit here, cancelling his mid-August bobblehead is a signal. If the Dodgers are down three of their planned five (Kershaw, Bauer, and Dustin May) for an extended period, I don’t know where they find a fifth starter. David Price is the easy answer and will work as an opener on Friday, filling in Kershaw’s slot, but he hasn’t gone three innings once this season. Josiah Gray is probably next up, but he’s building up at Triple-A as well. We’re going to have to see how creative the staff and front office can be if Kershaw is out for any extended period.
Eloy Jimenez OF CWS (ruptured pectoral)
200 percent? Maybe not quite that good, but Eloy Jimenez is coming back from his pectoral injury well. Sources tell me that he’s strong, has no motion deficits, and that the rehab was a complete success. That’s no surprise for an organization with as strong a sports medicine focus as the White Sox, even as they deal with more injuries than they’re used to. I can’t even blame La Russa for that.
Jimenez will head to High-A to start a rehab assignment on Friday and will be with the team at least a week. There’s a bit of question, it seems, on whether he would be ready at that stage or whether the team would let him play through the ASB. There’s also the question of whether High-A will be a challenge, but Triple-A is right there in Charlotte and getting to Double-A Birmingham isn’t that hard.
The expectation is that Jimenez will be back right after the ASB and should slot right back into his spot in the lineup. That’s where it could get interesting. Andrew Vaughn has played well in left - better than expected defensively - but isn’t likely to be as good in right. Would the Sox shift Jimenez over instead, or will they stick with Sheets and push Vaughn back to DH. There’s a lot of questions, especially with a manager that prefers set roles.
Carlos Martinez SP STL (sprained thumb)
The key to the Cardinals season was always going to be the rotation. They went into the season with a couple guys - Adam Wainwright and Carlos Martinez - that they didn’t want to overexpose, as well as Kwang Hyun Kim, who had some workload questions in his first US season. Jack Flaherty going down was not part of the plan and now, with Martinez has a Grade III sprain of his UCL … calm down, it’s the one in his thumb.
The good news is that this can be done with an InternalBrace and come back in a month. Several players, including Mike Trout and current NBA finalist Chris Paul have had this procedure with zero complications. Most have been done by Dr. Steve Shin, so watch for that name or a trip to LA for an indication on Martinez’s course.
The bad news is with a month out, it might be tough to keep Martinez’s arm loaded. I talked with several ATs and pitching coaches and they said things without the ball are tough to simulate, but one suggested taping a ball to Martinez’s hand and doing the equivalent of holds, without the hold being literal.
We’ll have to see what the Cards do with Martinez and how they replace him. John Gant is on hand, but Matthew Liberatore didn’t make the final Olympic roster largely because of this kind of possibility.
Kris Bryant 3B CHC (strained hamstring)
Javier Baez SS CHC (sprained thumb)
I heard someone complaining that suddenly everything is going wrong for the Cubs and immediately thought, “you haven’t been a Cubs fan very long.” Kris Bryant is down with a hamstring injury, though the Cubs don’t think he’ll need to go on the IL. Javier Baez is also on the bench with a sprained thumb. It’s not serious, but it is affecting his grip, so the Cubs are essentially playing two men down.
Bryant should be the first back, as soon as this weekend. The team will be cautious with him and word from a source is that the team will “limp through” (no pun intended) until the ASB, letting Patrick Wisdom take more time to give Bryant more healing.
Baez is a bit more complex. The team will wait to make any move, but they also know that with the ASB coming up, there’s a bit of extra rest without missing games, IL or not. The question is whether Baez is making progress and how quickly that’s coming, My feel for this is he’s 50/50 for the IL with a little tilt to going on and resting through the break.
Quick Cuts:
Yasmani Grandal underwent successful surgery to repair a tendon in his knee. The Sox haven’t given details or who did the surgery, but they did say he could be back as soon as six weeks. I’m going to need to know more and I’m digging … Domingo German was scratched from his start but it’s a tooth not an arm. He had an emergency root canal, but he should be able to slot back in for his next start … Sonny Gray went seven innings, but now has a rib cage strain. It’s unclear when it happened, but he’s on the IL until at least just after the ASB … Blake Snell may not make his Friday start. Word from San Diego is he’s still feeling the effects of his illness from a couple weeks back … Buster Posey remains out with his bruised thumb. He’s expected back Friday, but it’s unclear if that will happen. The IL remains a possibility … Alex Bregman is making more progress and now that the Astros are showing that he’s hitting again - he’d been in the cages until Wednesday - a rehab assignment is likely close. His quad is making good progress per sources … Jose Urquidy will remain shut down another two weeks. Even best case, he’ll need to build back up after the time off, so we likely won’t see him until late July at the earliest … Jake Arrieta hits the IL with a hamstring strain, but he’ll miss only one start due to the ASB. That’s likely to be an audition for Cory Abbott … Trevor Rosenthal came back from TOS surgery, but now he needs hip surgery to repair a torn labrum. He should be able to recover in about eight weeks, but his 2021 is likely over. Whether he pushes for another try in 22 remains to be seen, but the hip shouldn’t be an issue then.