Under The Knife 7/7/23

Getting Drafty

The MLB Draft takes place in Seattle - sort of - from July 9th to the 11th. It’s that first day and first round that gets the attention, while teams focus on the rest. Getting the first 30 or 40 is relatively easy, but teams find a lot more talent for value lower down and even with NDFAs. There’s a million mock drafts out there, some better than others, but I want to take a look at one of the trends that will likely end up in these pages - 100 mph pitchers.

Paul Skenes isn’t falling further than 1.3 in the draft and as both an elite pitcher and a very good hitter, plus indications that he wants to do both, there’s certainly reason to draft him all the way up to 1.1. Both he and his teammate, Dylan Crews, could be up quickly, if not going straight to the majors. But Skenes throws hard, regularly at 100mph, a level to which pitchers simply do not withstand. I don’t know exactly why, but unless Skenes is Aroldis Chapman, he’s going to end up on a surgeon’s table at some point.

That’s not to say he can’t be a good pick, or that 100mph pitchers should be avoided. In talks with several teams over the last few weeks, I still don’t believe they’re assessing risk correctly. Despite increased compliance with pre-draft physicals and MRIs, teams are still taking on risk, citing the need for “upside” and “velo floors” for pitchers that aren’t sure-thing starters. There’s a bit of bad-parent “getting Tommy John out of the way” in this, including two teams I know of valuing a pitcher who had Tommy John in college higher than an equivalent. As if Tommy John revisions don’t happen.

One team called me, asking for statistics on revisions for InternalBrace repair. While the number is low, they were surprised that there were any. (At higher levels, there’s not, but it’s a very small sample size currently.) I also learned that teams are getting biomechanical data, with permission, from some college players. This isn’t just mo-cap, but in-game done with Hawkeye and Kinatrax installs at colleges. There’s simply more data to go through, but as yet, it hasn’t translated well into not buying injuries for teams. I’d argue they need to invest even more and certainly put a bigger emphasis on research.

We’re going to hear Paul Skenes name very early on Sunday, then next year we’ll do the same with Jac Caglianone, another hard throwing two-way stud from the SEC. I just hope I don’t have to teach autocorrect either name and that they can avoid Under The Knife altogether. There’s plenty who haven’t, so let’s get to it:

THE ASB

Despite Ben Hansen’s research on how rest can counterintuitively be a problem for pitchers, leading to an effect of increasing injuries after the All Star break, teams continue to use the days off as a way to buy rest and reduce the impact of the IL. The 10- or 15-day IL simply costs less, in terms of games lost, when there’s not games. It really is as simple as that, though things like worker’s comp experience do get factored in. Teams aren’t doing much more thinking than that in most cases.

On the one hand, it’s fine. It’s not a “phantom IL” that’s inflating days lost or games lost; in fact, it’s doing the opposite for games lost, one reason that’s not the best stat for assessing injury impact. Players go on the IL because there’s an injury and we see less resistance to using it for players that have an acute injury, much more than we see players who are managing situations use the IL for an extended break.

On the other, there’s major question from a sports science angle as to whether teams are using the known break to their advantage in an optimal fashion. All indications are that they aren’t, but plans are difficult in baseball. Despite the sheer number of games, wins are key and count the same across the season, without taking strength of schedule into account. Players are creatures of habit, so even with an injury, putting them on the shelf for days, let alone weeks, is often a negative. It’s a question that more teams are asking and thankfully, some aren’t committed to keep doing it just because it’s how it’s always been done.

MIKE TROUT, OF LAA (fractured wrist)