Under The Knife 7/7/22

Annuities are Boring

For the last month, I worked on a project you likely heard about last week. We all know Bobby Bonilla Day where the former player gets not just the big Mets check annually on July 1, but another, lesser known $500k from the Orioles. Dennis Gilbert took the principles from his insurance brokerage and brought them to baseball. Deferred money has become a big deal - a way to make contracts work, to change the AAV, and even as a state tax shift - and is much more widely used. Gilbert should get a cut of that once a year.

So of course, everyone wants to be a part of one of the most important contracts. The company I work with, Simple, teamed up with Gilbert, Bonilla, and Orion Innovations to give everyone a chance to own part of “The Contract.” You can find out more details at the website, but the key is this. There’s an auction coming up where someone will become a part of The Contract, heading to Bobby Bonilla Day with (you guessed it) Bobby Bonilla Day next year.

Me? I’ve been working on the media side of this, but there’s a lot more coming, not just on this project, but on things I think will make a huge difference in how we consume baseball information. I can’t say more yet, so let’s get to the injuries:

KYLE HENDRICKS, SP CHI (strained shoulder)
DREW SMYLY, SP CHI (strained oblique)
MARCUS STROMAN, SP CHI (strained shoulder)

The Cubs rotation is in some flux. Losing Kyle Hendricks not only takes out one of the most stable pitchers in the game, let alone their rotation, but also potentially takes a trade chip off the board. The shoulder strain isn’t considered serious, but recalls last year’s two week break (no IL, that time) in June. Hendricks isn’t a power pitcher, but it appears he hits a fatigue point. The spring shift might have changed the timing, but it’s remarkably identical. There’s even some suggestion this has happened several seasons before, looking at his location and velocity data. At age-32, Hendricks has never had much room for error, but it’s getting even less so. If Hendricks is ready to go after the ASB, that’s a good sign that this is largely a fatigue issue, one the Cubs should be able to adjust to and maintain. If not, there’s bigger concerns.

On the other hand, Hendricks’ rotation spot should have Drew Smyly ready to step in. Smyly had a rehab start on Monday that went well, with the team keeping him on schedule but not activated. That could come to take Hendricks’ next start, as Smyly’s had no issues with the oblique beyond having the injury in the first place. That last start was only 52 pitches, so they could send him back out if they’re not comfortable letting him go in the 60s.

Behind him, Marcus Stroman is also getting healthy. Stroman got knocked around in Triple-A over the weekend, giving up five runs on seven hits, but his velocity and workload were where the team wanted. He’ll also have a pen with the big team and the Cubs brass will have to make a decision on which pitcher steps in, or if they’ll both head out. Why not both? The roster probably doesn’t allow for two pitch-limited starters, but it could be done, especially as a tandem. I’m doubting we’ll see innovation here, even when the Cubs have nothing to lose.