Under The Knife 7/30/26
Trade Deadline, D-5
TARIK SKUBAL, SP DET (no injury)
Knowledge matters. Experience matters. Relationships matter. I remind you of this because I’m about to lean on all that to explain what I believe will happen in the Tarik Skubal trade market. There are four teams still in this - Rays, Brewers, Dodgers, and the good ol’ fashioned mystery team, which I believe to be the Braves. There’s a chance it’s the Mariners and if so, there’s going to be a three way deal. Each of them have the return in both ready, controllable players and top prospects to put together a credible, fair offer for the top pitcher available, but who is also about to be a free agent. None save the Dodgers have a chance to re-sign him and for the Dodgers, it gets dicey with CBA and the perception that they’re spending crazy money.
The Dodgers have a huge advantage here. More than anyone save the Dodgers, they know Skubal’s elbow. Their team doctor can’t share all of it, but he can also be involved in the yes/no, and moreso once medical records are shared. The physical process if that happens will be a breeze. Everything I’m hearing is that the Dodgers aren’t scare by the elbow and could put a top OF (Charles Davalan), a top pitcher (River Ryan, on the shelf with a mild hamstring strain), and perhaps a ready pitcher like Emmett Sheehan in the package as well, or perhaps Eric Lauer as a toss-in for innings. I’m not saying it will be those specific players if the Dodgers do come in, but similar. Also, the Dodgers will be the last call the Tigers make and they can likely match at this stage what any of the others do.
The Rays and Brewers are in similar places. They’re budget-constrained, but two months of Skubal is well within any team’s reach. The question is really about how much they give up for a pure rental. Again, it takes two, maybe three top prospects and both teams could do so. Again, it’s likely a combo of OF and P prospects and both match. The Brewers are loaded with SS/OF types so even Jett Williams is doable, if pricey. Do the Tigers need a Sal Frelick or Garrett Mitchell that’s being pushed out in the longer term? Some have suggested Colton Gordon, just acquired from the Astros, could be flipped and a scout told me the Tigers have liked Gordon for a while.
The Rays aren’t as deep as the Brewers, but no one is. They could give up one of their young catchers, something the others don’t really have, or Brody Hopkins, who’s still the best pitching prospect in the org, despite a down-year at Triple-A. Santiago Suarez is one scouts love, though his injuries have held him back so far. Just look at the numbers and you see dominance in the form of a mid-90’s control artist.
Late word that Shane McClanahan was pulled in the fourth inning of his Thursday start with a back issue. This bears watching and may well change the situation for the Rays. With McClanahan and Skubal, that’s a nasty playoff rotation. With just one, it makes it in, but is it dangerous?
Where the Braves fit - if they’re the mystery team - is a clear need in the rotation, but less of a prospect fit. People I trust don’t think they have the pitching to give, given the run of injuries. One suggested that a pitcher like AJ Smith-Shawver - on the edge of coming back and predictable - could be a return, but I feel like that’s a tough sell for Detroit. Cedric de Grandpre just charged to Triple-A and could be a name, but most think the Braves would need to get a third team involved to make the deal and Seattle fits given their ready pitchers. I don’t know exactly how to make that work, but these front offices could, if they decide Skubal is a need.
On Skubal himself, the elbow is not a concern. I’ve heard enough from people to know that not only is the elbow clean now post-chips, but that the rest of the structures are as well. Go back to my interview with Dr. Neal ElAttrache, done just days after the surgery, for details right from the guy who did the procedure. Some team is going to say they just didn’t feel 100 percent about the elbow and backed off. That just means they got outbid.
The Tigers gave us another signal, calling up Max Clark just after activating Javier Baez. I’m not sure where Baez fits, but you don’t start the clock on Clark without playing him every day. The Tigers are playing for the future and while I think the world of Clark as both player and person, this is in part a distraction, showing fans that the future is going to be okay, even if Skubal is elsewhere sooner than you’d think.
CURTIS MEAD, IF BOS (fractured wrist)
The knives came out once the pictures showed that Curtis Mead was wearing a pad over his hand! Yes, I’ve gotten quite the run of texts and emails from people and some readers, but the fact is that even wearing a #paddedglove doesn’t protect against every injury. The linked picture shows that it hit him just under the padded area. Is that a 1-in-10, 1-in-100, or 1-in-a-million hit? I don’t know, but let’s call it one in ten. Mead rolled for damage and took the blow, which happens in probabilities. 1 in 10 things happen all the time.
The encouraging news is that surgery isn’t expected. That’s a significant distinction because it usually means the fracture is stable, well aligned, and likely to heal with immobilization rather than plates, screws, or pins. The challenge isn’t simply getting the bone to knit together. It’s restoring grip strength and tolerating the vibration that runs through the hands every time a hitter makes contact. Those are the last boxes to check, not the first.
A six-to-eight-week timeline points toward a return sometime in September, perhaps with enough runway to remind the Red Sox why they acquired him before heading into the offseason. There’s little incentive to rush him back before the bone is truly ready. Wrists have a way of punishing impatience.
The roster implications are at least as interesting as the medical ones. Boston is suddenly patching together the infield with injuries to Trevor Story, Marcelo Mayer, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but the acquisition of Mead - and the names that continue to surface in trade discussions - suggests something larger. It doesn’t read like a club that believes Story is worth spending more time on, even as a sunk cost, nor one willing to bet everything on Mayer’s health. Whether that’s fair or not, actions speak louder than prospect rankings. The Red Sox are accumulating options and organizations don’t usually do that when they’re confident they already have the answers.
I’m still digesting this piece - I love it’s ambition, I’m not sure of the methodology and I feel it ignores what we know about workload. I still think it’s well worth a read and I’m hoping to learn more from the author soon.