Under The Knife 7/28/26
The Dots Do Work
CONNOLLY EARLY, SP WAS (inflamed elbow)
CURTIS MEAD, IF BOS (bruised wrist)
The myth that a player on the IL can’t be traded is just that, and the trades of both Seth Halvorsen and Connolly Early this week prove it. For Early, he’s the cost of Curtis Mead, the flash-good player that was a DFA last year and traded for Cristopher Sanchez earlier in his prospectdom. This trade doesn’t make any sense for me, given the existence of Caleb Durbin and the idea that Marcelo Mayer will be back at some point soon, so it might put that latter to question somewhat.
For Early, the interesting part is that almost nothing changes medically. Players don’t restart rehab because they change uniforms. The Nationals inherit the medical file, the imaging, the throwing logs, the strength data, and the progression. More importantly, they inherit the elbow. They own it now, because he almost by definition can’t have passed the physical on it, but the team would have to accept it to complete the trade. The job becomes verifying that what Boston saw over the last month matches what Washington sees over the next week.
That’s why the reported timeline makes sense. Early has already checked the important boxes, progressing from flat-ground throwing to a simulated inning. One more extended session lets the Nationals establish their own baseline before sending him out on a rehab assignment. Assuming the elbow continues responding normally, two or three rehab outings should be enough before he’s activated sometime in the second week of August.
Elbow inflammation remains one of those diagnoses that covers a wide range of possibilities, but the fact that Washington traded for him while he was still on the injured list is meaningful. If either club suspected structural damage or believed Tommy John surgery was looming, this deal almost certainly doesn’t happen. Instead, this looks much more like the cases we’ve seen with young starters whose elbows simply became overloaded during their first significant professional workloads. Give the tissue time to calm down, rebuild the throwing volume, and most return without much fanfare. The Nationals are betting that Early’s next headline is about his first start in Washington, not another medical update. That’s usually the kind of bet worth making.
On the other side of this, Curtis Mead got into his first Red Sox game and got hit on the wrist. It’s just a bruise, but could have been much worse, reminding us that risk exists everywhere on the baseball field and that reducing that risk is a choice, or series of choices, by both the team and player. Where Mead was hit probably wouldn’t be helped by a #paddedglove but there are devices that could, up to and including a cricket-style glove.
JUAN SOTO, OF NYM (strained calf)
Yes, there seem to be more calf injuries this year and no, there’s no real pattern to it. For Juan Soto, it’s recurrent, so we may see this second one treated more like how the Braves have with Ronald Acuña Jr.’s hamstring.
One PT I spoke with said that there’s been a slight downtick in severe hamstring strains, which might speak to the efficacy of hamstring prevention programs. However, the kinetic chain will always find the weak link and maybe that’s the calf now, she suggested. It’s an intriguing theory. Teams have invested enormous resources into hamstring screening, eccentric strengthening, sprint monitoring, and return-to-play protocols over the last decade. If those interventions are reducing hamstring injuries, it isn’t unreasonable to wonder whether some of those same loads are simply being redistributed farther down the chain. The calf is responsible for finishing acceleration, decelerating the body, and absorbing tremendous force with every sprint. It’s also much harder to protect once the season starts because baseball players are constantly asking it to do exactly what aggravates it.
If that’s where the science is headed, the next question is whether baseball develops a “Nordic for the calf.” Hamstring injury prevention has become remarkably sophisticated, with eccentric strengthening programs and objective tools like the NordBord helping clubs identify deficits before they become strains. There’s no equivalent gold standard for the calf. Teams measure plantarflexion strength, use force plates to monitor jump and stiffness metrics, and track sprint loads, but no single test or exercise has emerged as the definitive predictor or preventative. It may simply be that the calf is more difficult to isolate, or it may be that we’re just a few years behind where hamstring science was a decade ago. Either way, if this year’s calf spike proves to be real rather than random variation, expect clubs to invest heavily in finding the next weak link before it finds them.
For Soto, recurrence changes the conversation. The Mets aren’t trying to get him back for Tuesday. They’re trying to keep him on the field through September. That likely means a more conservative progression, more attention to recovery between games, and perhaps accepting that he’ll need regular maintenance even after he returns.
That uncertainty also colors the trade deadline. The Mets have veterans they could move and pieces that would interest contenders, but this doesn’t feel like an organization preparing for a teardown. Jim Bowden called it a “reload,” and that’s probably the best description. Keep the core intact, reshape the roster around it, and come back in 2027 with a new manager, healthier stars, and a different supporting cast.
Steve Cohen can afford to think that way. With the owners charging toward a labor fight after the season, there’s value in preserving financial flexibility while still maintaining a roster capable of winning immediately when the next window opens. That’s not rebuilding. It’s recognizing that one disappointing season doesn’t erase the foundation, especially when so much of the disappointment has come with a medical chart attached. It also raises the question of just how deep Cohen would be willing to go with a lockout.
Apologies for no UTK on Monday as normal. I had a small medical procedure on Monday that took longer than expected and UTK isn’t something that can be rushed.