Under The Knife 7/28/23

The Manfred Era

Rob Manfred signed a contract extension and, well, that’s that. Commissioners in the modern era across sports tend to be longer-term. They’re the public face of the game, to some extent, and as sports has become more and more corporate, the ROI is rated much more highly than public sentiment. Baseball’s in good shape, in virtually every respect. There’s a CBA. Rule changes have worked. Attendance is up. Why change?

Manfred has a couple tasks during what is likely his final term. He’s got the Oakland situation more or less solidified. Tampa will be next, in some form, with growing pressure on finalizing a new stadium, which might require some new ownership. After that, expansion will be quickly on the table. Manfred’s expected to push for new rules as well. ABS is coming, perhaps as soon as next year, but I’m told Manfred’s suggested that he wants to see two years of ratings under the current rules before adding another. (Note - ratings, not attendance. Rights money is all.)

That alone would be enough to put Manfred’s face on a plaque. Look, Bud Selig is in and Manfred isn’t going to have a Fay Vincent exit. I’ll leave it to the historians where he might rate, but no commissioner is ever beloved. They all get booed when they walk out at the draft and I’m sure that every one of them thinks about the millions of dollars they get in return for it. Manfred’s stamp on the game - rules changes, a short strike, and management of the rightsholder shifts - is indelible.

As for that “final” call, Manfred’s 64 and will push 70 when his contract is up. Morgan Sword is largely seen as the likely replacement, though Dan Halem also has fans and a posse inside. Theo Epstein, who many owners hoped would be next, didn’t see Manfred fall, which was going to be necessary to go to a non-insider. Some wonder if Epstein will go back to a team, but who? He’s broken curses twice and almost anything he does now does nothing to help his Hall of Fame resume. (He’s in and should be in as soon as 2027, though executives don’t have the same five-year mandatory wait. My guess is some would be reluctant to vote for him with his age, possibility of return, especially after Tony La Russa.)

Epstein’s more likely to go into business or politics than return to the GM’s office. Ownership? Maybe, but while he’s well off, he hasn’t cashed in with books and movies, at least not yet. He could front a hedge fund (or frankly, run one) if that’s the direction he chooses.

Which leaves baseball in an interesting spot. It has consistent, if unpopular leadership. There’s not going to be a big boom in stadiums, even with expansion, even with the Selig-boom stadiums aging. There’s not likely to be a lot of ownership turnover, at least not in the next five years. Baseball’s just fine, with or without Manfred, which makes me wonder why the owners, so reluctant to spend money on their teams, value their pet commissioner on par with Fernando Tatis Jr or Trea Turner.

Anyway, get Joey Votto to be run Comms and we’re fine.

Honestly, I can’t think of a better segment I’ve ever seen. As much as I knock even the best of ex-players that move to the booth - hi, Papi! - Votto might be the one that needs to be pushed. Barry Larkin has been great as a local legend, but Votto? Votto seems to understand media in an almost Paul Heyman way. If Michael Strahan can get nine digits in TV, what’s the ceiling for Votto?

Now, let’s get to the injuries:

AARON JUDGE, OF NYY (sprained toe)

Cue my music. After a jaunt to Tampa, where Aaron Judge played in two days of sim games - really more of a controlled scrimmage - and took “a lot” of at bats, per a source, he’ll be activated. Both at bat and in the field, Judge looked “normal, for him”, though a decision on whether he’ll play the field with the big club hasn’t been made. My guess is he’ll either DH some or get off days for the first few weeks to settle into a management routine.

Some with the Yankees still want him to have a rehab assignment, even just over the weekend. Judge is resistant and feels like he proved enough with his Tampa excursion. While Aaron Boone remains skeptical in press conferences and gaggles, he’s not the final decision maker and if Judge is available, he plays.

Judge is playing with a guard over his shoe, which should help, but it’s the carbon fiber shank inside his shoe that’s the real help. Judge still has occasional pain, I’m told, but it’s manageable. I’m curious to see if he will have issues with the first step, though most seem optimistic that this is manageable. I doubt we’ll see many steals, but a stable base is key to power, even with his tubular swing.

Remember, this is not a quick comeback. Eight weeks is a typical turnaround and all the “out for the season” talk came from Judge’s own comments, which I felt at the time misinterpreted the situation. I’m sure we’ll get lots of #narrative on this, but Judge’s return should be just like anyone else’s, though that’s seldom true with Judge or the Yankees.

Funny note from a Yankees source is a quote: “If you ever wondered what a team of Aaron Judges would do in a game against complex kids, that was basically it.”

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