Under The Knife 7/25/25
Go Pay Joe
Instead of writing an intro, I’m going to quote from a Joe Sheehan piece from earlier this week. You should go read the whole thing:
"Taking out a pitcher after 59 or 64 pitches with the idea that it will keep him healthy isn’t science, it’s magical thinking. Teams have no idea how to keep these young pitchers with lightning in their arms from blowing out their elbows, so they fall back on what worked with shoulders: Pitch them less. The problem is there is no data to support 64-pitch starts. It’s woo. It’s “number go down.” You, me, Pat Murphy, the Brewers training staff, the ghost of Old Hoss Radbourn can’t provide a shred of evidence for the idea that Jacob Misiorowski’s risk at pitch #65 or #75 or #85 is materially greater than it was at pitch #35 or #45 or #55. Elbows don’t blow out because of overwork, they blow out because they’re not generally meant to move this fast, and they can blow out at any time.”
Sheehan nails this piece and distills what I talk about here in a way that should be more accessible to the masses. Believe me, I’m going to quote from this in an upcoming presentation I have. As always, Sheehan’s newsletter is the best money you’ll spend and he’s got a big discount going now. Because enough people haven’t read our work, let’s get on to the injuries:
BOBBY WITT JR, SS KCR (bruised knee)
Bobby Witt Jr isn’t a pure speed player, but his physicality is a big plus for his game. Fouling a ball off your kneecap isn’t going to help anyone, but for Witt, is it even more of a factor? The answer is “we don’t know” as it is to far too many questions, but Statcast data in the next couple days should give us more of an insight.
With an off-day Thursday, Witt is expected back on Friday after two days of rest and treatment. We’ve seen with foul-offs and HBPs, especially high spin pitches - and we don’t have data on how a foul ball spins (or even a study that I could find) so we’re no closer to predicting the time lost based on the event and mechanics. Witt’s expectation may not be reality and with the Royals context, taking a day or two more to heal could be the smarter play.
In the longer term, this is one of those injuries that could be easily reduced by simply wearing more pads. A small knee pad isn’t going to slow a player down significantly, but players resist this. Catchers still don’t wear a thigh protector in the one-knee-down era and this makes no sense at all to me given the things we can do with advanced materials. Maybe missing a day or two doesn’t mean much, but it does add up and may subtract in the longer term.
MARCELO MAYER, IF BOS (sprained wrist)
The Red Sox have those three touted prospects, but one of them may be down a while. Marcelo Mayer injured his wrist on a swing, though it wasn’t clear to me watching it what happened. It’s very likely a soft tissue injury and he was scheduled to have an MRI, the results of which will come Friday afternoon in Alex Cora’s normal avails. One of my best sources tells me Mayer is headed to the IL, so there’s something going on.
There’s a really broad range of possibilities here so I won’t even run through these. The IL means at least ten days, but surgery could end his season if that’s necessary. The Sox have plenty of cover, but playing Cedanne Rafaela at second more isn’t ideal and makes the idea that they could flip Jaren Duran for pitching less likely as well. It’s never good timing for an injury, but this could be particularly bad.
More on lots of rehab starts, trade candidates, and a name you’ll hear in GM hunts, all for paid subscribers only. Think of me like Quince - very low price on luxury information.