Under The Knife 7/2/20
Hicks Squared, Alvarez, Judge, and more
Major League Baseball has decided to make things even more confusing for this short season by changing up their Injured List (IL) rules. There’s a 10-day list which is the standard. There’s a 45-day list and a 60-day list, which both serve the same purpose. The 60-day is a remnant, while the current 45-day also takes the affected player off the 40-man roster. The 60-man pool is fluid, but the 40-man roster is standard with all the roster moves, options, and outrights that few of us really understand. But injuries are injuries again. (I think the 7-day concussion DL is still in place, though I couldn’t get confirmation.)
Except for COVID-19. That has a separate list and those will not be announced. It’s a quirk to be sure, but an MLB source told me that the reasoning is that “it’s a non-baseball situation” - he wouldn’t even call it an injury - and that in those cases, it’s up to the player to announce it. Functionally, we will know. A player won’t just vanish and they won’t make up some wording to hide it. This is more a lawyer thing than a real issue and while it sounds stupid for baseball, it’s probably wrapped up in liability as much as information control. It won’t matter; we’ll know, in virtually real time, when it inevitably happens.
But for now, Summer Camp is open and we have some injuries, so let’s get to it:
Jordan Hicks RP STL (Tommy John rehab)
Jordan Hicks is throwing the ball again and he’s throwing really hard. There was no radar on his session last week, but I don’t need a gun to tell me that Hicks looks ready. He’s just over a year since his Tommy John surgery in June ‘19, but there’s no reason to think he’s not at least real close.
A lot of focus will be on his velocity, but I don’t think that’s where we should watch. If he’s throwing 99, that’s hard. If he’s throwing 95, that’s hard, but a bit worrisome if that’s where he tops out. I’m actually watching to see if the Cardinals let him keep his changeup and if they try to extend him a little bit.
Hicks showed he could close, but they have several candidates, starting with Giovanny Gallegos, to take that role. Could Hicks be a multi-inning guy who could be paired or shared with Andrew Miller in some way, especially early where the Cardinas starters shouldn’t be expected to go deep into games? Imagine Jack Flaherty going five, followed by Miller for 2 and Hicks for 2. Extending Hicks at worst gives them the option and allows him to do a “starters’ rehab” since so much of the rehab orthodoxy is about building stamina as much as strength.
Normally, I’d say we should be looking for workload, pitch mix, and recovery with Hicks, but it’s still unclear just how much we’ll see in these first weeks of camp. Hicks and many others might be a black box until the season, so I’ll be working the phone trying to get more clues.
Aaron Hicks OF NYY (Tommy John rehab)
Tommy John rehab for position players is often shorter for very simple reasons. They don’t have to build up workload and don’t often put the same kind of stress on their arms that pitchers do. That allows for very quick returns, as little as five months in the past.
Aaron Hicks is eight months post-surgery but remember that Hicks has a plus arm, as the video below shows. Maybe he can remember not to tune it all the way up or maybe his arm just isn’t all the way back just yet. At eight months, the anchors should have set and the transplanted tendon is well into it’s process of ligamentization. Saying that he can’t play now is silly; if he doesn’t play, it’s not a medical decision.
Hicks is still in the throwing portion of his rehab, but that’s function, not medical. He’s well past the medical portion of the rehab. I doubt Hicks will be even an option for the DH slot for the Yankees, but they could use it as a semi-rest option through the season, giving him a day off without losing his bat. Thing is, the Yankees probably have better options, even if Hicks is fully healthy. His value is wrapped up in his defense and his arm, so watch to see he’s playing well there. Starting on the IL is still an option here.
Aaron Judge RF NYY (rib stress fracture)
If you remember back to the start of ‘real’ spring training, the Yankees told us a very confusing tale about why Aaron Judge might not be ready until the summer. Aaron Boone explained that Judge had a stress fracture in his first rib, then later told us the diving play where it happened. Stress or trauma, pick one. Regardless, the fractured rib was slightly displaced and caused a collapsed lung. No, this isn’t normal and is actually so unusual that every doctor I spoke with said this was confusing or that we were missing a piece of the complete story that would be like the reveal on House MD where everything came together in a flash.
Forward to July, precisely when the Yankees thought they’d get Judge back and here he is. We haven’t seen what he’s doing but reports are positive. The downside here is that since we never got a great handle on what was wrong, we also don’t have a great handle on what a recovery looks like or whether this is a recurrent problem. For a young, healthy, strong player like Judge, a recurrent stress fracture would not be normal, but if it was a baseball activity that caused the stress, yes, it could recur since it wasn’t fixated.
Judge will be handled with care through summer camp. Watch for any reports of setback, or that Judge is putting balls into the Yankee Stadium seats.
Noah Syndergaard SP NYM (Tommy John rehab)
Noah Syndergaard will be back, just not this year. The Mets place Syndergaard on the new 45-day DL, removing him from the 40-man roster, which led some to believe that he could be back at the end of the season. 45 is less than 60, after all.
The answer is no. While I think the Tommy John rehab timeline is longer than necessary, Syndergaard is looking at a standard rehab where getting him back for spring ‘21 is possible, but ‘20? No. That said, Syndergaard is progressing well through his rehab. According to sources, his base of strength is serving him well and while it’s difficult to say that he’s ahead of schedule, he is doing well.
I was also told that Syndergaard is putting less of a focus on strength as he is on overall movement. That’s likely smart as we’re learning more and more about how movement trumps strength or even what we’ve been calling “mechanics” for decades. Believe me, this is going to be a big theme.
Yoenis Cespedes DH NYM (post-ankle/foot surgery)
We still don’t know exactly what happened with Yoenis Cespedes. Whatever happened on his ranch and the long, involved recovery from multiple foot and ankle surgeries is finally leading back to a baseball field. Cespedes will be helped by the universal DH, though there’s still value in his arm. Cespedes will be watched closely in summer camp, but he’ll be pushing to be off the injury list for the start of the season, given that his salary goes to $11 million if he’s not on the IL. (Pro rated, of course.)
I’m watching to see whether Cespedes is running the bases, not playing defense. He showed in the spring that the power was still there, so the base was at least stable enough for that. Given the lack of access, it’s going to be tough to get a good read on Cespedes early. There’s no stats, no media, and it’s unclear what if anything teams will release. We may be left to hope for social media clues or maybe another barbecue.
Yordan Alvarez DH HOU (knee soreness)
The Astros have the DH, again, and that helps Yordan Alvarez, this season and likely for the rest of his career. Alvarez was never a plus defender or runner, but knee issues had been holding him back from even that. While the Astros haven’t detailed the issue, the symptomology matches more with arthritic changes than anything traumatic like a meniscus tear. He’s had problems on both sides and yes, there’s some concern that his size isn’t helping.
If Alvarez can be “just” a DH for this season, will that help or slow his knee issues? Probably not, but we can see that someone with severe knee issues can succeed as a DH. Harold Baines and Edgar Martinez were among the best DHs of all time and both were pushed there by leg injuries. Baines is likely the best comp, though he was a rangy guy (6’2, 175) where Alvarez is much larger, at 6’5 and a listed 225. (No.)
Alvarez is one of several NL players that might be helped by the DH slot coming, likely permanently, to the old league. Alvarez is often a bit overvalued, but any change that could make him more likely to play on a near-everyday basis is going to up his real value. Something to keep an eye on is whether he shows power in Summer Camp. It wasn’t there in a limited 13 plate appearances in the spring, where he was 2 for 12 with no extra bases.
Hunter Greene P CIN (Tommy John rehab)
Jameson Taillon SP PIT (Tommy John rehab)
As discussed above with Syndegaard, the late start to the MLB season isn’t going to help many that had Tommy John surgery. The clock stays the same, but the rehab is going to be interesting to watch. Some teams will keep players at their facilities, while others will be released to do their rehab with their chosen doctor/facility combo. Others might be placed in the 60-man pool to allow them a higher level of competition. Do not be surprised to see some of these players pushed through some roster contortion to allow them to play in the independent leagues to get some game action in absence of the minors, or to see some fall league expansion if things get better on the pandemic front.
Two pitchers caught in this are Jameson Taillon and Hunter Greene. Taillon is coming back from his second Tommy John surgery and at 28, is hoping to have a career. He had his surgery last August, so he should be close, but the Pirates say Taillon will not pitch this year. He in camp simply to continue his rehab, which makes no sense to me. The timing is similar to what we saw a few years ago with Stephen Strasburg and Matt Harvey. This is a choice the Pirates have made, not strictly a medical necessity.
It’s different with Greene. The uber prospect is where Taillon was years back, also coming back from a early career Tommy John. Greene is past a year from his April ‘19 surgery and has shown in video that he’s throwing real hard again.
If the Reds don’t think he can help them, that’s on them. While Greene has almost no minor league experience, research I did back in the 2000s showed that the rehab process kept players from “losing a year.” Given his stuff, Greene could easily jump in to the Reds pen, limiting his workload and his usage. This is where the Reds should show an advantage with their new pitching development staff. The team could add Greene to their player pool at any time, so I’d expect he will be working with his normal rehab and pitching staff as he has been for now.
Bonus: I was able to take an ASMI “Master Class” via Zoom last night, featuring Drs. James Andrews and Lyle Cain, Kevin Wilk, and Glenn Fleisig. That’s a pretty good lineup, no? They discussed the latest is labrums, which is rapidly evolving to a symptomatic/asymptomatic model - a high percentage of MLB pitchers show damage to their labrums, but most don’t report any issue - and where the surgery and rehab is changing. One of my early articles was on this topic and over 20 years, it’s really changed. ASMI is going to have more of these, plus Dr. Fleisig is forming the American Baseball Biomechanics Society, so check it out if this is up your alley.