Under The Knife 7/18/25

The Vacation Catchup Edition

This won’t be your normal UTK. Instead, I’ll do a little bit of catchup on my early calls — and no, I’m not close to really catching up on those, so don’t expect this to be comprehensive. Have one I missed? Drop it in comments or email me. I’ll do this a bit quicker because I have a feeling things could get longer. Also, I’ve noticed that because I wasn’t here and monitoring games in my standard fashion, I’ll have missed some of the context of the injuries. Please forgive that and we’ll be back to normal - or as normal as it gets around here - soon.

DODGERS PITCHING

Blake Snell will follow Tyler Glasnow back to the Dodgers’ rotation and as expected for the team, they’re simply juggling starters now. Some are injured, some will come back now, some (Roki Sasaki, River Ryan) might come back later, and Shohei Ohtani is having the slowest ramp ever, by design apparently. They’ve already used 13 starters and could push 20 if circumstances (and arms) break badly. This isn’t unexpected and is the reason for the depth. They’ll pitch the six that are healthy and available now and it is working, though it’s not a model many could follow for many reasons.

Snell is the one I’m watching most closely right now as his rehab could be coming to an end. He stepped down the the Complex - they were the only ones playing on his schedule - and dominated. He’ll have one more start, likely at an upper level team, and then could be back for the Dodgers. The Dodgers clearly aren’t scared to build someone up at the major league level and right now, Snell’s stuff is looking solid. Having him back would bump Emmet Sheehan back down, kind of resetting him and Justin Wroblewski to the plan the team really had for them before they were pushed out of necessity. At least for now.

Which does lead to the question of what to do when Sasaki is ready, assuming the August timeline holds. A modified six-man has worked, if not helped keep anyone healthy, unless you want to argue this was all for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and I’d allow that argument. Absent another injury, my guess would be that we’d see yet another modification, perhaps Ohtani and Sasaki in a tandem if Ohtani’s build continues slowly. A source sniffed at that idea, saying they wouldn’t want to adjust Sasaki’s routine, though he acknowledged something would have to be done if they do find themselves with “too much pitching” for a time.

NOLA

Aaron Nola has been given a bit of a slow, steady rehab given just how good the Phillies rotation has been. It’s not that they don’t want him back as quickly as possible, but they’re also looking at the longer term implications for the playoffs and for seasons to come. Add in impending Andrew Painter cameo, some Mick Abel drama with Dave Dombrowski always willing to go for it for a ring, and the Phillies solid rotation gets at least slightly weird for this day and age. Don’t we have to expect some injuries and necessary depth, even beyond a returning Nola?

The Phillies being vocal about Jacob Misiorowski getting the All Star call seems a bit of us vs them gamesmanship and face it, that works sometimes. I’m not sure if Kyle Schwarber has picked a new song for them to rally around

SHANE BIEBER, SP CLE (sprained elbow)

There’s some rumblings that the Guardians might be willing to trade Shane Bieber ahead of the deadline and a scout who was at his last rehab start said he could see at least three teams who might be in the hunt, given what Mike Chernoff asks for in return. Bieber’s in an interesting situation, as the G’s have a cheap option on him for next year and while age-31 free agency isn’t as good as what could have been at age-29, especially with a likely strike/lockout, it could be worse for him. He’s healthy and good and pitchers like that will always get paid.

The one note I have is that when Bieber’s first rehab got shut down after one outing in late May, everything said it was minor, nothing to worry about, move along. A month and a half later, here we are and while things look good, why such a gap to mind? There’s still an element of risk in the unknown here, though most pitchers coming back from elbow reconstruction do make it back and make it back at level. Odd setbacks along the way aren’t rare, but this is about as rote a rehab as exists (which is also a problem, but of timing, not success).

Expect two or three more starts as Bieber builds his pitch count, with most sources saying three. I’d be surprised if the Guardians don’t at least consider bringing him back one game early, letting him have a pitch limit, and gaining the value if he looks good in the next two and continues not having problems with the elbow.

SHANE MCCLANAHAN, SP TBR (inflamed triceps)

I got an email while I was gone asking whether the new Rays ownership would keep the current philosophy. I didn’t answer it at the time, but the long period of thought would have changed my initial answer. I don’t know anything about what the new ownership intends, though one would hope that they value what’s been built. That said, would new ownership have the capability to spend more money? If so, does the spare parts dynamic shift a bit?

For someone like Shane McClanahan, he might not have ended up in Tampa, but now, he could be a premium player if he stays healthy. He won’t have the raw numbers to really cash in with arbitration next year, but he’s got one after that where one would normally think the Rays might look to flip him for the next re-load.

McClanahan has at least two more starts, likely in Durham, before he’d come up, but things are looking positive. He’s showing command and after his first Triple-A outing, there were no unusual issues after throwing at full-go. That’s a positive sign and everything is pointing to McClanahan doing well. I’m watching to see whether he looks confident in these next outings as it seems this might be more about the mental than the physical now. If only there were a way to test it …

JON GRAY, SP TEX (fractured forearm)

The AL West still hasn’t settled itself, though the Astros have separated themselves despite injuries. The Rangers can blame injuries some, though insiders tell me that Max Venable’s departure for the White Sox job has been more problematic than most know. On the other side, Jacob deGrom has been Jacob deGrom and few teams have that kind of ace-level pitching to lead whatever comes behind them. If they get healthy and if things come together, the Rangers become the same kind of dangerous team they were in 2023.

Jon Gray is probably one start away from returning to the Rangers after his unlucky arm fracture in spring training. It might seem a long time for a fractured bone - bones heal - but think of the forces there. The same ones that tax elbows could tax weakened bone. Those forces, like demons, attack the weak link, which is seldom bone, but when it is … well, if your mind just went to Dave Dravecky, I apologize for the image but you’re right. No one wants that, so getting Gray back a bit later is the smart play.

The question now is who does he bump. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker are pretty on par with Patrick Corbin (a nice reclamation), so my guess here is “hot hand” with a lean to one of the younger guys with options. Corbin could also push to long relief or could be an interesting roll-the-dice depth play for a contender. I’m torn between Chris Young trading Michael Lorenzen because he wanted to be a starter versus the depth issue the Rangers would have behind it, but as teams try to figure out what they are, Young’s always been willing to zag.

MICHAEL LORENZEN, SP KCR (strained oblique)

The Royals first said that Michael Lorenzen had an illness, but then pushed him to the IL with an oblique strain. Obfuscation? Not really - per multiple sources, the answer is “both” though it’s unclear if they’re related. The ASB factors in as well, but Lorenzen isn’t eligible to come back until the 26th, so he’ll miss at least one start, probably two, though the rotation can get juggled a bit. But to get there, it must be a very minor, caught-early kind of oblique strain.

It’s unclear how the Royals will fill in for that start. They didn’t have much warning with the last one and it was a bullpen game. Drew Beam is still stuck in High-A so it won’t be him, but I’d love someone to explain why he’s still there this deep into the season.

LUIS GIL, SP NYY (strained lat)

Luis Gil went exactly 50 pitches in his rehab outing, both the goal and the limit. He looked as if he was pitching normal and free from the video (below), but I didn’t have anyone at that start to get an eyes-on opinion. There’s whispers around (but not from) the Yankees that Gil could come back after two more starts, so look for a 60-70 in his next start and 75-80 on the following. If things continue to go well, he’ll bump Cam Schlittler from the rotation ahead of the flip to August, though we also seem to be in the “DFA guys Aaron Boone can’t fight for anymore” season, so Marcus Stroman might find himself out. Or both, once Brian Cashman starts making serious phone calls.

ZACH EFLIN, SP BAL (strained back)

Timing is everything for the Orioles right now. Mike Elias has never bought big and last year’s deals didn’t work well. Could he get Zach Eflin back and healthy, only to flip him and hopefully replace the talent he lost last year? The Orioles don’t lack for talent, but frustration showed when Brandon Hyde was shown the door.

Eflin made it through 58 pitches in his outing and the timing of the ASB made it so he’s due to throw Friday. If that goes well, the expectation is he’ll make his next start for the O’s and be something of a showcase, if he’s indeed on the block. The timing allows a couple starts, a chance to show he’s healthy, and at least gives the O’s the options to take calls, if not make them. At worst, he improves their rotation in the now and they get the pick if he leaves. The back seems to have healed up, with sources speaking of it with the equivalent of a hand wave.

Where I’m still lost is where the plan is. Will this well-funded and smart front office sign some of their young talent long term, or do they start flipping and re-loading? Also, why don’t MLB teams bring in managers mid-season any more? “Interim” is nice and nothing against Tony Mansolino, but soccer flips managers like trading cards and has no hesitation to bring in whole new, often poorly fitting systems, right in the middle of a rough start or relegation battle. If they fired Hyde (or anyone) just to fire him, without any plan of who’s better, doesn’t seem the best way to go about it.

ADLEY RUTSCHMAN, C BAL (strained oblique)

Oh look, a position player. I see some things haven’t changed much while I was gone. And probably the first guy who we’ll see on the “long term or flip” firing line. Rutschman has been very solid and very durable, so this minor issue isn’t some indication, or shouldn’t be. Oblique strains are up around the league, so this is hardly isolated or individual. Also, they’re very controllable (and preventable, but that’s for another day.)

Rutschman will continue his rehab after the ASB, though the expectation is that it will be only a few games, maybe not even the full weekend before he’s recalled. All information has been positive since his return and assuming he has no issues with catching in those games, there’s also no reason not to get him back in fantasy lineups or inside the O’s lineup. My guess is we see a few extra off-days for him early, though there’s no evidence those help with this particular injury.

Quick(er) Cuts:

Tanner Houck (elbow) doesn’t have a guaranteed starting slot when he’s activated soon. The Sox won’t go to a six-man, while sources say they’re looking to “align resources” through the deadline. They need depth given their fragility so far, so trading a pitcher is a tougher move unless they flip someone for a younger near-ready type … Eugenio Suarez #paddedgloves. He should be back Friday … Paul Sewald goes back to the IL after a short return with what looks like a very similar shoulder issue … Tests on Edward Cabrera’s elbow seemed good and the Marlins think he’ll be in the rotation as normal on his turn. It will be one to watch as his status impacts who/if is available for trade … Max Kranick had Tommy John in 2022, which would make a second procedure just three years post very unusual. The Mets are awaiting a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister, but it doesn’t look good here … Lars Nootbar has an costochondral sprain that could cost him a month. Very painful, very unusual… Spencer Arrighetti (thumb) could be ready for a rehab assignment next week and could come faster than expected due to what he’s been able to do with the arm aside from pitching, per a source … Jake Meyers will miss a month with a calf strain, adding to the Astros’ long injured list. As well, Jeremy Pena (rib) should be back soon, if not right after the ASB … In some good news for the Astros, Cristian Javier (elbow) had his first rehab start last Friday. Expect him to use the full 30 day window … The Yankees are more likely to skip or delay Max Fried than IL him due to the blister. They can adjust given the ASB’s standard rotation juggling … Shelby Miller (elbow) is throwing again, but no word on his timeline back to the pen. It’s better than heading for surgery, as looked likely, but there should be red flags waving everywhere if he does return … Tekoah Roby is back on the minor league IL, cutting some depth for the Cardinals. He’s always been very talented, but not durable. No clarity one what the issue is this time … Luke Keaschall (fractured arm) will start his rehab and will likely take at or near the full 20 after being out since April.

The sale of the Rays will close in September, but multiple sources say that new ownership is focused on putting together a deal for a new stadium in Tampa, not St Petersburg, and that while they’re publicly committed to the Bay, privately they’re willing to use Nashville, Montreal, and even Jacksonville as leverage. (Not Orlando, as that ownership group seems to have locked in local politicians and are willing to wait on expansion if they can’t get into the cap table.) At $1.7B, the Rays sale should push the Twins and Nats slightly above $2B for their sales. One thing I heard from a Tampa source is that they aren’t against expanding Steinbrenner Field, but that one path might be to build something bigger and share the spring training facility with the Yankees. Not sure how the Yankees or the league would feel about a co-owned stadium.