Under The Knife 7/15/22
The 2022 Draft Edition
The All Star break was always set up as something of a half-way point in the season, though it never quite fell there, especially after the shift to 162 games. The further shift in 2022 makes it an unnatural dividing point. It’s not a half, it’s not two-thirds, it’s not even the trading deadline. It’s just … well, I’m not even sure what the logic is for moving it back and of course, the Lords of Baseball haven’t given much in the way of explanation.
It’s always seemed to me that the All Star Game should be on the Fourth of July (or at least close. I get that TV rules, but playing the game at 7pm and really pushing the pace would get plenty of people watching before heading out to watch the fireworks as things get dark. I can’t imagine with no football and no NBA, that there wouldn’t be a big enough gap for MLB to do a solid rating.
What MLB did do is shift the draft to the same weekend. This is something of an improvement, but shifting it this late is tough. There’s a gap for most athletes, a Combine that most don’t participate in, and the “Draft League” is a complete failure in virtually every respect. Being later means that top picks aren’t heading to Omaha, but we’ll see how many show up and whether the stage walk can eventually become a thing as it is in every other sport.
By giving the draft more spotlight, MLB is doing something right, but they’ll have to figure out how to stop using the minor leagues as an experiment and cost savings and get around to promoting it. Imagine a package where someone could get all games for their favorite team, plus the minor league games. I can imagine that might be an attractive package and reasonably priced. (My guess is Endeavor’s buy of systems rather than individual team is suggesting they have a similar idea.)
As for the draft itself, there’s some interesting angles that fall in my wheelhouse. The first is the case of Brandon Barriera. While Barriera’s “shutdown” was something far less than the pearl-clutching way it was described, it shows that the athlete empowerment is moving all the way down to high school, or at least to draft status. Barriera didn’t pitch during the end of his season, though he continued playing. He’s a far better pitcher, so there’s no Hunter Greene “what side does a team prefer” debate? Barriera showed enough to make his point to scouts, while not ending up injured and dropping. More on where he lands in a bit.
That said, Dylan Lesko becomes the final nail in the coffin of the Tommy John drop. Pitchers like Lesko who had Tommy John surgery, even in the current season, are losing only minimal places. Sims could have been as high as the 9 or 10 slot per most experts, but he’s now expected into the top 20. That’s a drop of as much as $3 million, which is nothing to sneeze at, especially considering this will be the only payday for most of these players. Ask Mark Appel.