Under The Knife 7/12/24

The Impossibility List

Ethan Mollick is one of the top minds helping the rest of us to understand AI as it rushes headlong towards Skynet, or the most helpful tool since fire. I can’t tell which at this stage and neither can most people. However, Mollick’s recent column coincided with me about to run to a Favorite Toy calculator I have bookmarked, but have to look up the info, enter it by hand, and then get the calculation, if I didn’t fat-finger anything or look in the wrong column.

Instead, I just used ChatGPT. Yes, the chatbot can now do calculations and that’s not miraculous, but it’s an advance. It saves me about five minutes of work and before you say “five minutes is nothing”, it’s five minutes. At this stage in my life, I’d much rather have time than almost anything.

In his column, Mollick suggested putting together an “impossibility list” where you can check back from time to time and see how much closer ChatGPT, Claude, or whatever is to doing that thing that was impossible. Worth a read and worth your time.

It also got me thinking of something of an impossibility list for baseball. Is there such a thing? I’m always amazed that I can go to a game and come away saying “Never seen that before.” Most of those are quirks or physical feats, not to the level of impossibilities. Even something like breaking Dimaggio’s 56 seems impossible, but isn’t.

The easy one is the 110 mph pitch. It used to be 100, but Aroldis Chapman was something of a Roger Bannister there and the chase for velocity has been on ever since. Yes, I know many people threw 100 before, but not with the regularity or measurement Chapman has/had. Is there a level more in the near future? In 2009, there was an article questioning if 105 was where the demon lived, but we’ve passed that now. Could 110 be another signpost that whizzes by sooner than we think?

How about the 500 foot home run? Too late. Nomar Mazara may not be remembered by many outside of Arlington, but his 505 foot homer in 2016 is still the top. There have actually been four over 500 and another five over 490. Let’s just assume Mickey Mantle’s 565 footer is apocryphal and that anything Josh Gibson did is lost to time. Is 525 the impossible mark? I pulled that number out of thin air, kind of round, and then looked to see what the longest Home Run Derby distance was. It’s 520, by Juan Soto, and we have to consider those are about ideal conditions.

(Speaking of, is the batting practice fastball the best vehicle for the Derby? I remember the Randy Johnson-Mark McGwire homer and I’ve always wondered if a dead-flat real fastball would be better. Where’s my physicists at?)

I’m sure there’s more and while “never read the comments” is a good life rule, limiting comments to just subscribers here has worked pretty well. Drop your ideas down there and let’s see how long they hold up. Hey Claude, let’s get to the injuries:

CODY BELLINGER, OF CHC (fractured finger)

Cody Bellinger does have a fracture on his finger and yes, something like this might not be helped by padded gloves, but cricket gloves - admittedly at the more extreme end of what a baseball player might wear - could have prevented or at least reduced it. A bruise instead of a fracture would be a win here.

The fracture of his middle finger is pretty standard. The ASB timing helps miss a few less games, but the idea that he’ll be back before the calendar says August is unlikely at best. Four to six weeks is the standard here, with six to eight not being outside the range. The question is how it heals, how his grip strength/control evolves as it does, and how much risk he and the Cubs are willing to take bringing him back “early.” The finger doesn’t have to be fully healed to play again, but it does have to be heading that way.

There’s no ready replacement, so the Cubs are left with empty slogans like “next man up” and “the rest of the team has to pick him up.” Those aren’t what Craig Counsell is good at, so he won’t complain too much while getting around the business of trying to win games while looking up at the rest of the division. The Cubs have a lot of positives on this season, but not a lot of results. That can change, but it usually does that for healthy teams putting out their best players.

LUIS GARCIA, SP HOU (sprained elbow/rehab)

Luis Garcia had a rough rehab outing, but the worse sign is that he didn’t make his next pen. Instead, he threw a light catch session as the Astros tried to figure out what the issue is and what they’ll do next. Garcia’s rehab hasn’t been one where he’s just breezed through, to be sure, and one scout pointed to his inability to use his normal delivery now. I haven’t seen clear enough video (or any data, which the Astros would have) to say whether anything has changed mechanically, but it is worth noting.

Garcia will continue to rehab but with the clock ticking, there’s a chance the Astros pull him from this for now and re-start the clock. Add in a hurricane throwing off his schedule and there’s reason to think Garcia just had a bad week as he re-finds his command, but we haven’t seen enough in his outings to believe that fully.

If you notice that we’re seeing a lot more pitchers having trouble coming back from Tommy John surgery, you’re not alone. Garcia and Walker Buehler are probably the best known, but we’ve seen early revisions, long rehabs, and generally a higher rate of complications. I’m not sure exactly how or even if this will show up in the data. Longer return times is more likely, but those aren’t very precise.

Hey, I have some news about Giancarlo Stanton’s return. Hit the button above and you’ll get that and more, for a month.