Under The Knife 7/10/26

Starting All Star Week

BRADY BUMILO, SP XXX (sprained elbow)

I’m not big on the draft, but many of my best sources are and they’re deep in the files getting ready for the picks coming this weekend and the changes sure to come in the future. Many think that the draft changes are among the ones likely to stick in some form, even if it seems against MLB’s own interest. (One interesting counter is that high school players could only be selected in the first round, which seems interesting. I’d rather see it matched to where the average NIL money and the bonus slot match up.)

There’s always injuries and medical concerns here, but there’s a suprising willingness to take on known issues. Tommy John surgery is a known and if you like the stuff, it’s probably coming back. Time lost is, as I’ve argued, probably not as big a concern for first-years and less for high schoolers or their Latin equivalents.

Anyway, of all the injury issues that are changing where teams might grab someone, Brady Bumilo’s new elbow sprain is one that is getting the most attention and not just because he looked so good early in the season coming off an elbow reconstruction. In fact, that’s the issue. Reports that teams were told Bumilo had another sprain aren’t just a problem for him, but for the concept that internal braces don’t fail and in those limited cases where they do, they don’t fail quickly.

There’s a lot of unknowns here, including whether Bumilo will need a revision and if so, how does that even work? It adds a layer of uncertainty that will likely drop him out of the first round for sure, but there’s something of a reverse auction on the rest. He could be picked up, possibly, on the cheap and using some of that bonus for later picks (or earlier, actually.) I’m trying to find out who did the surgery, which is a key for any player that is coming into the draft with this kind of question.

AARON JUDGE, OF NYY (fractured rib)
GIANCARLO STANTON, DH NYY (strained calf)

Stars get treated like stars. While we dream of “all men are created equal”, that isn’t true in the baseball clubhouse or even in the training room. With the Yankees trying to stabilize on the pitching side, attention shifts back to the two biggest bodies and biggest stars in the lineup.

Aaron Judge is waiting for repeat imaging of his first-rib stress fracture during the All-Star break. If that scan shows clear healing, the next step should move quickly: dry swings, full batting work, throwing, then a short live-pitching progression. Given the location and the rotational force involved, I’d still put his return in the final week of July rather than immediately after the break, again if the rib is healing properly. A less convincing scan pushes that into August because there is no useful way to bargain with a rib.

Giancarlo Stanton is further away. Brian Cashman clarified that Stanton suffered a second strain in a different area of the same calf while running the bases in mid-June, resetting the rehab. The recent PRP injection, probably not the first treatment aimed at stimulating healing, tells us the tissue remains biologically active rather than merely deconditioned. He has only recently resumed running, leaving several steps before baseball: acceleration, turns, baserunning, full-intensity swings, recovery, and likely rehab games. Early August is the optimistic target. Mid-August feels safer.

That leaves the Yankees chasing Tampa Bay without either half of the lineup’s intended power center for most of July. Judge could return before the deadline and instantly change the offensive calculation. Stanton should not be built into any deadline plan. Cashman has to operate as though his DH will remain unavailable until proven otherwise, adding enough offense now that Stanton’s eventual return becomes a bonus rather than a rescue mission.