Under The Knife 6/9/25

One for The Doctor

The Doctor’s heading under the knife today and that means I get to tell a little story before getting to work.

He’s been here the whole time. Sometimes as a clear presence - I’ve written books with him, I’ve been by his side in training rooms, I’ve been at a wedding with him - and sometimes just as the person that taught me everything. There’s not a single column, a single word, that doesn’t bear his name, since we share it. He doesn’t get all the credit, but he doesn’t get none either.

He could use some good energy today. I don’t care if you’re a paid subscriber, a free subscriber, or just someone who found this, I’d just like you to send the guy some good energy. Everyone going through this deserves that and most don’t have the platform. I didn’t give my mother that years back, but I’ve learned. Energy is everything.

Drop a comment. I know, I know, never read the comments, but today, I don’t care if it’s one character, I don’t care if it’s a message, I don’t care what you need to do or say, but give him the respect of a thought, please. My hope is that for the next UTK, I’m telling you he’s doing well, that he’s comfortable, that he’s planning a tennis match.

I don’t ask for much, personally, aside from the regular begging for subscriptions. Today, I could use your energy - that positive energy, that hopes and dreams energy - for the Doctor. For him, this one’s free. Comments below, and as he would want, let’s get to work:

CORBIN BURNES, SP ARZ (sprained elbow)

The news came down Friday that after meeting with at least three of the Elbow Five, plus team doctors, that Corbin Burnes decided to have elbow reconstruction surgery rather than a rehab. I’m told that two of the three recommended having a procedure immediately, though which procedure(s) is unclear. He’ll have it later, likely next week, and Dr. Neal ElAttrache will perform the procedure.

While we don’t yet have details on the procedure, Burnes is out at least a year, cutting much of 2026 off and potentially extending through the entire season and with a work stoppage coming, it gets even more complex for pitchers that are in this situation from this point forward. There’s going to be many pitchers that, knowing that either a strike or lockout will alter who they can work with on a rehab and throwing plan, will elect to do it all outside the team’s doors. This isn’t a bad thing and is common, though I’ve never seen any good study on this. Teams don’t like losing control, even when most of these procedures and rehabs are done outside in most cases.

For the D-Backs, there’s no good way to spin this. Burnes isn’t just an ace level starter the team would need to get back into the playoffs and give them a chance at a run like they had a couple years back, but to win consistently. Perhaps as or even more important, the team is doing it’s own OTA tv deal and Burnes featured prominently in the push for more viewership. In the short term, Ryne Nelson takes the roster spot, but there’s going to be a reckoning about two disastrous pitcher signings, though with Burnes, it’s hard to say that the D-Backs could have seen it coming or stopped it.

On a bit of a side note, Burnes will be the 14th elbow reconstruction this season, which is actually down a bit - we were at 21 at this point last year, 16 in 2023. These numbers are MLB only and tend to be a bit randomly distributed.

SHANE BIEBER, SP CLE (sprained elbow)

Things seemed to be going well for Shane Bieber and the Guardians could dream a little bit as his rehab started. It wasn’t long ago that they thought Bieber could lead a dominant rotation and turn it into a playoff run, or flip him for the next set of prospects to fuel the next playoff run as they so often do. Instead, he’s headed back to see Dr. Keith Meister to check the elbow.

Things could be worse there, with the outcome of that visit being a one week pause in the rehab. It restarts the clock, but there’s been speculation that a one week setback pushes Bieber’s return into August and I don’t see where that came from. Bieber’s first rehab start went well and had him on track to be back in late June, even with the full 30-days used. A week pause isn’t going to set it back and even if they don’t get him right back into games, I don’t see where Bieber’s losing a month in here.

The Guardians, not that long ago, expected Bieber, Daniel Espino, Triston McKenzie and Ben Lively to head up a rotation that would have some serious depth. Instead, three are on the IL and McKenzie’s a ghost. While there’s more coming, there’s not much upper level prospects and it’s injuries like these that can absolutely sap a team and throw off even the best plans. For a team without much margin and without the TV money they’d expected to have, health would be the next best investment with the highest return.

TONY GONSOLIN, SP LAD (inflamed elbow)

Sometimes a word like “intact” has to be parsed. Does that mean “no damage” or does it mean “not ruptured”? Dave Roberts just said “intact” after imaging on Gonsolin’s 2023-reconstructed UCL and if it had been significantly damaged, that would have been one of those very few outliers inside the honeymoon period. Gonsolin had “classic” Tommy John surgery in 2023, came back this year, and has been one of the pitchers the Dodgers are piecing together into a six-man rotation that gets them to 950 innings. In theory.

Let’s assume this is minor and that Gonsolin could come back this month. I’m not saying that’s the case, but for purposes of this exercise, let’s assume. The Dodgers have two pitchers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Dustin May) over 10 starts and Landon Knack just behind with 9. Those three are shy of 175 innings. Gonsolin, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki are at 88. Jack Dreyer has 34. Clayton Kershaw has 15 innings in four starts. Without doing all the math, it’s June and that’s not just a long way from 950, that’s a long way from the 475 you want by July 1 to say nothing of October.

The Dodgers are in first place and also in crisis. Both can be true. They can’t keep losing pitchers, but they have more in reserve. I don’t see how this can hold together, but have I mentioned they’re in first? Some depends on the medical staff getting back what they can get back. Shohei Ohtani may not be that far away, Emmett Sheehan might be back in July, and there’s depth at both Triple- and Double-A. Losing Gonsolin, who was expected to be at least 100 innings after his return would be bad, but minimizing it to the loss of a few weeks and keeping that 100 inning mark in sight would be the win this medical staff needs here.

BRYCE HARPER, 1B PHI (inflamed wrist)

How does getting hit in the elbow lead to a wrist issue? Maybe it doesn’t but the wrist problem showed up not long after Harper was hit in the elbow by a pitch. Did it alter his swing enough to cause an issue?

Well, public Statcast data would show his first hit back from a couple games off was a 104 EV homer, so he looked good there, but that was his one hit before leaving a game with a sore wrist. He was striking out more than he has as well, so in hindsight, it’s easy to point to the wrist as the causation, though the data doesn’t really show anything significantly different in his swing path or force.

Harper will have to spend at least the full ten days on the IL from the Friday retro and there’s speculation that he’ll have an anti-inflammatory injection to speed things up since he’s not playing. That’s a reasonable assumption and if things are going well, we’ll hear of Harper swinging a bat again mid-week. In the meantime, Alec Bohm will flip across the diamond while Otto Kemp - an interesting injury story himself as a D2 player largely because he couldn’t stay healthy - will make his debut and see what he can do with major league breaking stuff.

OSWALDO CABRERA, IF NYY (fractured/sprained ankle)

“Small chance” isn’t something that managers throw around lightly. I’m not sure if the Yankees’ season hinges on whether Oswaldo Cabrera comes back from his ugly ankle injury, but go back and see what I said when it happened. Bones heal and the question of Cabrera’s return wouldn’t come down to the fracture, but the soft tissue damage. Now a couple weeks out from surgery, there’s enough time to see just how that surgical fix and natural healing are coming together. What Aaron Boone said is the clearest indication that things are going well.

Some of this will come down to team context. Cabrera was playing well, and regularly, when he went down, but team’s adjust over the course of a season. If the Yankees find a solid lineup where Cabrera wouldn’t be playing or even adding depth, there’s just no reason to rush him, even a little. But if he’s healthy and showing that he’s one of the best 26 out there, and the team is heading to October or worse, fighting for position, then there’s certainly reasons.

The key now is that Cabrera and his rehab team have a goal. They won’t skip steps or do things that will endanger him in the long term, but there’s also the possibility - probably more like 50/50 than they’d acknowledge - that Cabrera could come back. It may not even depend on Cabrera entirely. The Yankees are watching DJ LaMahieu closely at second, but his slot is one they can easily upgrade. At the same time, scouts are raving about George Lombard, who is still adjusting to Double-A and could well be in the conversation for a promotion by late in the season.

RYAN WEATHERS, SP MIA (concussion)

Ryan Weathers came out of Saturday’s game flexing his arm and walking with the medical staff, so there were messages asking me what I knew. Instead of an arm injury, it’s a weird one. Weathers said he was hit in the head by the catcher’s return throw in the first inning and that’s the reason he came out in the third. If he was dizzy or couldn’t focus, that’s a concussion symptom and he could miss his next start. Thus far, there’s no indication that the Marlins are pushing him to the 7-day IL, but this would have to be a very transient issue to avoid it.

So what was the deal with the arm? No one seemed to know, or ask Weathers about it. Given Weathers has been good since returning from a forearm strain, it’s reasonable to have thought something was going on, but looking back at a couple of his recent starts, he does seem … twitchy at times. I know that looking for it can make you see things in the video and maybe he’s just a nervous mover, or there’s some things he does to keep the forearm from tightening up. I can’t know from out here, but this one bears watching in a couple ways given Weathers has been the Marlins’ best starter since his return and a valuable trade chip.

Quick Cuts:

Shohei Ohtani was hit in the foot at bat. No expectation of time lost, but it will push back his throwing a sim game by a day to Tuesday … No fracture for Julio Rodriguez after getting hit by a batted ball. His ankle is sore and bruised, so he could miss a couple days … Losing Zebby Mathews to a shoulder issue is a big blow to the Twins, especially after losing Pablo Lopez. No word on specifics or who’ll replace him in the rotation … Endy Rodriguez injured his elbow on a throw and there’s worry that it’s serious. He was immediately placed on the IL and Brett Sullivan was called up to catch alongside Henry Davis. The Pirates are way down the depth chart and their best catching prospect (Omar Alfonzo, Eliezer’s son) is years away. Next up? Eli Wilson, who’s Dan’s son! … Gabriel Moreno missed the weekend with a sore hand after it was hit while catching on Friday. While the game was suspended, that doesn’t help a bruise … Lucas Erceg (back) was due to start a rehab assignment on Sunday and the box says he went an inning for Omaha. I don’t have more info than that… Jorge Soler came out of both Friday and Saturday’s game with a groin issue. It appeared much worse Saturday and we’ll have to see if he misses more time … Nick Kurtz (hip) hit a homer in his first rehab game and he may not stay in Low-A for long … Negative x-rays on Matt Chapman #paddedglove … Max Scherzer threw a fifty pitch sim game in Florida. There’s rumblings that a decision will be made on him soon, but note, fifty is where Scherzer said the thumb acts up.