Under The Knife 6/9/23

Sports Vision

Apple introduced the Apple Vision Pro on Monday and it’s something. They really did put a screen on the front that can show a representation of the wearer’s eyes. It’s not a picture of the eyes, but a “digital profile” of you, one that can be used in FaceTime and other ways, so that people don’t look like they’re wearing ski goggles in cyberspace.

The big takeaway won’t be the amazing feat that putting augmented reality in 4K rendered in real time is near, but the cost. The rumors of $3,000 weren’t true - it’s more, “starting at” $3,499 and not until early next year. My guess is that we’ll get pre-orders during the holiday season and a nice card to put under rich kids’ trees.

The presentation gave a pretty good signal what Apple thinks it can do and what it can’t. They showed a giant, IMAX sized screen (as I expected), and Disney’s CEO Bob Iger came out to show that Disney’s working on things like dinosaurs and Mickey Mouse walking around your room. Having that sort of content and the trust it brings along with it is a nice get, though Apple and Disney have worked together closely for decades. It does show that there will be purpose-made content for the device, always a concern on a new platform.

They also showed a lot of “workspace” stuff. A guy working at a very chill office has virtual monitors up, plus documents, and is putting together a presentation. If cost is an issue, it has to be compared to a workplace setup of PC, a couple monitors, and such, the same way a home unit will be compared to a large TV and surround sound. There was also the exec on the go, who can do a video conference with co-workers from her hotel room, then use the Vision Pro on the plane to watch Ted Lasso at IMAX size. I’m not sure how many people want to work this way, but there’s a case for it.

Apple showed a clip of the forthcoming Napoleon and I’ll bet that Ridley Scott is shooting some “spatial” content while he’s doing that. I’m wondering if the Apple TV launch of Killers of the Flower Moon will be coincidental as well. The nature programming that Apple has done makes more sense, but would have to be shot in the new format, but we don’t know if Apple already has a rig that can do it. My guess is yes. [Late word from Ben Thompson is yes. The format is called Apple Immersive Video Format. And also yes that they’ve already been shooting content in that format for some of their key properties.]

But they also showed some sports. The NBA “Courtside Experience” and a virtual “surround view” were shown, though surprisingly very little from MLS or MLB. With the NBA’s media rights coming up, it’s an interesting note. Just watching a standard game on a giant screen will be nice and Vision Pro will be out in time for next year’s Super Bowl. I note this because it’s the biggest time for TV purchases, even if the Vision Pro wouldn’t work well for a Super Bowl party. I think some in the near future will decide between a new big screen and a Vision Pro.

At the demos, there were videos of the NBA, the NBA app, and a clip that appeared to be shot from the Red Sox dugout. There was also a piece of the Apple Watch presentation that suggested it could now get golf data like swing speed and wrist angle. Golf and baseball are the two sports easiest to simulate, but don’t discount this as a device to capture as much as it is to display. If I’m HitTrax, I’m porting over quickly, and if you just spent big money buying a golf simulator or an X-Golf franchise, I’d see that $3,500 as cheap. I also think that Apple’s sports experimentation pays off here. A little of this, a little of that, a lot of cash for Leo Messi, and all along, they’ve likely been learning what they’ll need to shoot for Vision.

(This announcement from TGL, the new simulator league from Tiger Woods, immediately made me wonder if it might be tailor made for Vision. The one thing I can’t find on them is whether they have a media deal in place. Given what happened with the PGA this week, a non-Saudi golf property might be very intriguing.)

Ben Thompson mentioned sports in the review I linked above and suggested that he would “pay thousands of dollars for this view” of virtual courtside seats. I won’t go that far, but I think the “virtual ticket” suddenly becomes more reasonable. Stadiums just became infinite seating and they won’t have to add bathrooms. Would I pay ten bucks for an Apple Vision game? Maybe and maybe there’s more like Ben out there who would pay more. With cable deals collapsing, a new revenue stream courtesy of Uncle Tim would be quite the gift for owners.

Though movies and Disney are what Apple seems to believe are the killer apps, I’ll tell you what I think it is: babies and pets. There was a short clip of “spatial pictures” where they showed a picture of two kids playing. That in 3D, or enhanced by generative AI to be walkaround capable, becomes super compelling. Imagine baby’s first steps, recorded in 3D for all time. Imagine 4K spatial FaceTime with grandparents on the opposite coast, probably with some sort of haptic glove that someone will add on. Imagine We Rate Dogs’ kind of cute/funny stuff, except now you see that derpy dog in your own living room.(Almost every review disagrees with me and the point about the dad needing to wear the headset to the kids party in the demo is an issue I’d overlooked. I also think no one expected iPhones to be used the way you see at a Taylor Swift concert. It’s a memory filter and I believe we might get some kind of immersive capture in future iPhones.)

You might not have to imagine hard. That’s basically the Black Mirror episode called “The Entire History of You”, which was written by Jesse Armstrong. He went on to do Succession, so you can imagine there’s some darkness. It’s not quite to that level, or the similar and underrated Strange Days, but we’re a lot closer to those today, for good and bad. Apple isn’t going to get to the “seed”, but smaller, lighter, and faster are guaranteed by Moore’s Law.

Apple also might have signaled what it doesn’t do. Not once did they show the wearer outside. Given the pass through and battery, I don’t see why it couldn’t (complexity? cameras that can’t deal with sunlight?) but I think Apple learned enough from the Google Glass “glasshole” situation that they’re not going to encourage anyone to do that. Potentially recording people isn’t more of an issue with Vision Pro than it is with an iPhone, so I don’t think it’s a legal issue as much as it is a weirdness issue.

Apple also never said or did anything remotely like “metaverse.” They showed some created environments but they were more like standing in a photo than someplace you might run into a legless Mark Zuckerberg or stash an NFT. They limited eye tracking, something I worried would be an advertiser’s holy grail. I’m still curious about battery life, which they mentioned as “all day, if plugged in”. Which could be limiting, though with the pocket battery and wire, I’m curious how much we’ll have there (and if it will be MagSafe charged.)

The cost becomes the major issue, but Version 1 won’t be a big seller. Remember everyone saying the Apple Watch was a failure or making fun of the $17,000 Apple Edition? The Meta Quest 2 is a nice device and the 3, just announced last week, looks even more capable at a fraction of the cost. However, from the peeks we have, this is like complaining that a Ferrari costs more than a Corolla. They both get you there, but they do it very differently. I’m curious if there will be trickle down to the Quest, as it’s far more accessible, and a larger addressable market.

I’ll wait until we see and hear more on technical details from someone like Jason Snell, but we do live in an age of wonders. It’s not the jetpack I was promised, but Apple’s new platform is a clear glimpse of the future. Now, some injuries:

PETE ALONSO, 1B NYM (bruised wrist)

Pete Alonso took a ball off the wrist - #paddedgloves - and was pulled from the game. X-rays were negative and the Mets are calling this one a bruise. However, the Mets got Alonso to a quick MRI, which isn’t unusual, but it’s not standard either. It could just be that the Cohen-era Mets don’t worry about costs, but more likely it was indicated by something. He’ll go on the IL, though there’s not yet an official diagnosis. The assumption is that something came up on the MRI and the speed with which they pushed that through tells me they suspected it was needed.

The bigger concern is that wrist issues, even minor ones, can sap power. This is another biomechanical issue that we know almost nothing about, so there’s nothing but theory when it comes to why. I’ll nod back to Apple’s announcement on Monday that the Apple Watch will be able to get accurate wrist angles. While they nodded to golf, there’s no reason it couldn’t work with a baseball swing and I think combining that with HitTrax’s biomechanics module might tell us some interesting things.

For a player like Alonso, who uses his well selected bats to help supplement his 80 raw power, any loss of power is problematic, and with 22 homers, his push for 60, or even 50, is likely off, especially if the loss of power is extended. I’m most worried here for a hamate fracture, which often necessitates surgery. I’ll be monitoring this one over the weekend closely.

NESTOR CORTES, SP NYY (strained rotator cuff)