Under The Knife 6/30/25

When Heat Meets Hype

Last Wednesday night’s matchup wasn’t just a game — it was a glimpse of what baseball could be if we let it breathe fire. Paul Skenes and Jacob Misiorowski aren’t just hard-throwing prospects; they’re walking, snarling statements about what the modern game values: velocity, movement, domination. Both regularly hit triple digits. Both have breaking stuff that looks like it’s trying to dig a grave at home plate. Both leave big-league hitters walking away like they just saw a ghost.

This is fun. It’s a game. It’s supposed to be fun.

You know what’s not fun? The instant someone like Skenes or Misiorowski shows up and lights up radar guns, there’s always some Twitter crank — or worse, a dad-coach in a bad polyester quarter-zip — who says, “Enjoy it while it lasts. That elbow’s not gonna make it.”

Yes, we all know the risks. Jared Jones, Skenes’s teammate, was one of the most electric arms in the game until he sprained his UCL. He won’t throw a meaningful pitch again until 2026. It stinks, but he’ll be back. Dr. Jobe’s miracle surgery works. We’re not in 1985 anymore.

Still, let’s do the numbers. Around 33% of professional pitchers undergo Tommy John surgery at some point. It’s not evenly distributed, not inevitable, not fate, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume a 33% chance that each of these young flamethrowers ends up needing the procedure since neither has to this point.

The probability that neither does?

P(neither) = 0.67 x 0.67 = 0.4489

So, a coin flip that both Skenes and Misiorowski make it through this first chapter of their career with their native ligaments intact. That’s not bad. If one or both ends up needing surgery? There’s a strong chance they return just as nasty, just as dangerous, just as essential to the game.

We shouldn’t live in fear of these injuries. I used to. I made a name for myself pointing out warning signs, tracking workloads, and sounding alarms. Sometimes it helped. Sometimes it just robbed joy from the thing we love.

Now, I’d rather watch two young men stand on the mound and throw fire. I’d rather marvel at the hitters trying to survive and that anyone can hit it at all. I’d rather let the radar gun sizzle and the batter’s knees buckle. There’s enough worry in the world. Let’s not turn 100 mph into a funeral march. Maybe they’ll end up in this Substack, maybe they won’t.

Baseball doesn’t need more warnings. It needs moments like this - fastballs you can hear, sliders you can’t see, and the kind of matchup that makes even old scouts whistle.

***

One thing I noticed early in Wednesday’s games is that batters were fouling off a lot of pitches. Part of that is the movement both have, but at some level I think it might be a strategy. Neither have gone deep into games and in modern baseball, no one does, so getting to the pen early taxes everyone.

Back in 2019, Annette Choi watched foul balls ahead of the nets going up. What catches my eye now is the numbers. If you had to guess the average number of foul balls in a game, would you have come up with those numbers? I don’t know (and couldn’t find) what those counts are now. Thats for both teams, but each one is a pitch closer to chasing the starter. Skenes only went 78, Misiorowski 74, albeit at very high velocities for all of them.

If foul balls are a skill - and I’m not sure they are - then there’s a value there that likely isn’t being captured. Those 11-pitch at-bats have a real cost, but the hitter doesn’t capture it. A plate appearance is a plate appearance. This bears someone looking into it.

On to the injuries:

BRYCE HARPER, 1B PHI (inflamed wrist)

Bryce Harper is getting very close to a return, but we’re no closer to really understanding why he’s been out as long as he had. Yes, we saw what happened ahead of his wrist issue, a simple HBP over his unguarded elbow. Easily corrected and I’m very curious to see if he comes back wearing a guard, even in the short term. The wrist is the proximate problem and theoretically unrelated. I’ve been told that there was something of a nerve shock that affected his control, so that should be well clear by now.

Harper’s graduated to live pitching over the weekend and the expectation is that he’ll come off the IL as soon as Monday for the important series on Monday. As I hit publish, that hasn’t been decided yet, but it’s not a big deal if he doesn’t. There’s little in the way of possible setbacks, so this could be a roster decision as much as anything. Even though no one’s going to keep Harper off the starting lineup when he’s available, figuring out the machinations to make it happen often do.

Otto Kemp has played well in Harper’s absence, but he may be better served by playing more as an Ironpig that he would sitting as a Phillie. Buddy Kennedy is also a possibility to head out, as well as some possible bullpen juggles. Dave Dombrowski often acts quickly and sources around the league tell me he’s been talking with several teams about frameworks and possibilities, but nothing’s come together. I doubt he’ll lock one of those up ahead of Harper’s return, but it’s coming soon.

JORDAN WALKER, OF STL (appendecitis)

News came down on Thursday that Jordan Walker did not have an appendectomy, as had been originally believed on Wednesday. Instead, he was treated and sent home, vestigial organ intact and presumably much more comfortable than when he went in. This is a bit unusual, in that doctors are often willing to take the organ out even if not absolutely necessary, because the surgery is safe and easy, and because it precludes any problems in the future.

However, Walker is an athlete and even a couple days lost is costly, both to him and to the team. He was placed on the IL, which seems a bit odd, but he should be ready to play by the start of next week. The Cards seem to be leaning towards a quick rehab assignment, though I don’t know why he’d lose his rhythm so quickly. Perhaps down Ivan Herrera, the team just wasn’t willing to not have the full roster and were willing to lose several days in return. (I wonder if the doctors knew that when they decided not to do surgery.)

Walker’s 2025 hasn’t gone to plan, with a couple stints on the IL and poor results at the plate. No one questions his talent, but the results and his mesh with new hitting coach Brant Brown are issues. He’s been functionally passed by Alec Burleson in the outfield, but one scout I spoke with pointed at a similar player, Jo Adell, who took a while to click, but is having a breakout season at age-26.

Despite not having surgery, the Cards used the rehab rules to send him to Memphis and while Walker is eligible to return Wednesday, he may not. The team is going to want to see he’s hitting and could still option him down or reset his rehab if need be. There’s lots of ways to play this and the illness may just show us how the Cardinals are thinking of their players ahead of the deadline.

First, a reminder that I leave for my trip this week. I anticipate a UTK coming Wednesday as normal. Then, I have some queued up UTK Specials coming that range from a look back to a look way forward. I’ll also do some vacation posts, though I still am not sure how those will look. I won’t subject you to a daily travelogue. Below the paywall, more on Royce Lewis’ impending return, Mets pitching shuffles, and one of the longest Quick Cuts ever, plus a memory of Dave Parker. Subscribe?