Under The Knife 6/25/21
Free Friday: Mechanical Hunter, Broken Vogie
Free Friday is all new today, so let’s get to it:
Marcus Stroman SP NYM (strained hip)
Marcus Stroman walking off the mound after some check pitches felt like an end. Mets fans are used to that, seeing things go wrong and making sure you’re reminded of all the other times things went wrong. I get it, I grew up a Cubs fan in the 1980s. However, Stroman’s minor strain appears to be, well, minor and he’s on schedule to make his next start.
That’s not to say it’s not a concern. Stroman is now kind of in the position that Jacob deGrom was in - he’s able to throw, but the Mets can’t really count on him going deep into a game. He’s as likely to come out in the first as in the sixth, leaving the bullpen on edge, especially without a true long/swing down there.
The Mets have a pieced-together rotation, a stressed bullpen, and no sign that it’s getting better or even getting some reinforcement in the near term. These small injuries add up in the face of all that, so getting Stroman back on track is key. No one’s thrown more innings for the Mets this year than Stroman and there’s value in durability. While Tylor Megill had a nice start, he fell apart late and might not be the answer just yet. The Mets need some bullpen arms, and for their injured guys to come back without yet another comeback, and they desperately need Stroman’s hip to heal quickly.
Kent Emanuel RP HOU (sprained elbow)
Sorry, Kent Emanuel, you aren’t going to be the next Tommy John and have a surgery named after you, but Emanuel’s UCL repair with InternalBrace does show there’s an increasing acceptance of the surgery, which in some cases can cut Tommy John rehabs by months, not weeks. There’s some evidence that the rehab time could be cut in a far more significant manner, but baseball is slow to change, so anything is a plus.
Emanuel’s sprained elbow is currently quoted as a nine month return, which puts him back on or around Opening Day. We probably won’t be able to see if he’s ready early, though if he shows up at camp throwing, that would be a positive indicator and a major data point for why this surgery is so promising.
As for the Astros, there’s a lot going on over there, with many expecting wholesale changes in the coaching staff, even if the team can go deep into October. Dusty Baker was always a short term solution, but losing Brent Strom could be big. Whether you believe in cycles or not, the Astros job is going to be enticing in a year where there’s not going to be a lot of managerial openings. I’m not sure if the Astros will be ready to bring back Carlos Beltran, but Raul Ibanez, Will Venable, and Troy Snitker (yes, they’re related) are going to get looks. That pitching coach slot is a much bigger issue, though Josh Miller could step up if the Astros don’t make an outside-the-box move.
Lucas Sims RP CIN (sprained elbow)
Yes, another sprained elbow for the Reds, though the ability the team seems to have to catch these early is intriguing. Sims has a very minor UCL sprain, confirmed by imaging, and they’ll shut him down for a month to let it heal. The sprain should heal without surgical intervention and one positive here is that Sims has had this before. Small sprains, less than ten percent, often do heal and seem to respond well to treatment. For those saying Tommy John is inevitable, I disagree and certainly don’t think I know more about this situation than the doctors who are actually treating Sims.
The downside is that they do seem to recur and Sims’ situation is an example of that. Add in that Sims’ spin rate is down, like many, but his velocity isn’t and we seem to be seeing the “Glasnow pattern” where pitchers are either throwing harder or gripping harder to try and get similar results without grip aid. That’s problematic, but to many in baseball, Sims and the others are replaceable.
The saves Sims had been taking are likely to go back to Amir Garrett, but it’s likely to remain something of a situational committee. The team juggled things in the short term, but they have Sonny Gray on rehab, Tejay Antone ready to return, and Hunter Greene torching the minors. There’s worse places to be in terms of depth, but the Reds need to figure out the why of these injuries or get used to being in this position.
Aaron Civale SP CLE (sprained finger)
Ask me the worst injury a pitcher can have and I’ll likely say shoulder. Ask me the worst place to have an injury and I’ll definitely say the middle finger. Everything in a pitcher’s delivery comes down to what the middle finger does as the primary contact and release point. The fact that Aaron Civil has a severely sprained middle finger on his pitching hand is about as bad as it could be, even though the timeline isn’t as severe as something like a sprained elbow or strained rotator cuff.
Civale is out for at least a month and likely more like six weeks. Add in ramp time and he’s looking at August for a return, but even that relies on his finger getting back to 100 percent in the meantime. If it doesn’t he simply won’t be able to pitch well and would likely need surgery. That has a very good success rate, but a longer return time, so this course gives Cleveland a chance to get Civale back this season.
The next tell on this will be when he starts throwing again. That won’t come until at least after the ASB and in the meantime, the healing is going to be internal. Civale will be able to stay in shape, though I can’t figure out a way for him to keep his arm tuned up without actually throwing. Would some kind of hard inset for his hand protect him, turning him into a human version of those dog-ball launchers?
I also realized something about Cleveland’s renaming - I hope they consider that the traditions of the club should continue where possible. Racist logo, no, but John Adams’ drum, yes. Tomahawk chop, no, but references to Major League, yes. (I am curious how the name change will age that classic film.)
Ronald Acuna Jr OF ATL (back stiffness)
There are a lot of problems that sports medicine and sports science are working on, but the most solvable would seem to be hotel beds. Instead, it remains a major problem in 2021 and one that Ronald Acuna Jr is dealing with. He’s missed a couple games, though the issue is nothing more serious than a very stiff back as a result of ‘sleeping wrong.’
Sleep hygiene and sleep coaching are far bigger topics now than ten years ago, but once again, baseball is about five years behind the NBA and about a decade behind European soccer, where clubs like Real Madrid and Manchester United have had sleep coaches on staff for at least that long.
That something like this could have been much more serious and derailed a team, Atlanta or another, seems like something very solvable for a team or even a league. I’ve suggested that each team build something like a small hotel near or even in their ballparks where there could basically be a “mattress bank.” Even with 26 players per team and more in reality, the combination of preferred mattresses is probably much lower and in the scheme of things, a cost savings.
Acuna’s situation is day-to-day and while Atlanta is certainly better with him in the lineup, the team has shown an ability to swap pieces and parts around and be very good without that ‘best lineup’ being available consistently.
Quick Cuts:
Must read stuff from Peter Gammons on the ball and baseball’s real issues. By the way, Peter will be writing the foreword for The Science of Baseball! … Luis Severino is back to running, but his throwing ramp has been really thrown off by the groin strain. There’s no timeline on when he’ll restart his rehab assignment … Brandon Belt is waiting on MRI results on his right knee, but things don’t sound good. That’s the same knee he had surgery on in 2018 … Robert Gsellman was shifted to the 60-day, but the move doesn’t affect the timing. He hasn’t started throwing yet … Spencer Turnbull could return earlier, but the Tigers can be and will be conservative here. He won’t come back until after the ASB, but we should see a ramp up start soon … A stiff back is pushing back Sonny Gray’s rehab start. It’s now scheduled for Saturday but “in pencil” … Steven Matz is “COVID-free” per his manager and is building up for a return next week … As you can see in the video below, the hamstring strain for Daniel Vogelbach is significant, but he did score on one of the weirdest plays you’ll see. He’ll be out at least past the ASB and Keston Hiura was called up despite not getting the success in Triple-A the Brewers had hoped for … I can’t get a full confirm on this, but if what I’m hearing from one trustworthy source is true, it’s no wonder Chris Sale’s recovery from Tommy John was delayed. It’s one of those things that will likely come out at the end of the year, but I’m sure I’m not the only one chasing this story either … If the Pirates have, as some have suggested, been asking for the moon or at least Garret Crochet in return for Adam Frazier, then Ben Cherington either took a blow to the head or is overplaying his hand. But are those suggestions true? Seven sources I talked to say not exactly. They do say Cherington is asking high, but it’s more along the lines of asking for 10 when you know you’ll get 5.
