Under The Knife 6/2/23

Ted Lasso Spoilers

You’ve had better than 48 hours to watch it, but … SPOILER ALERT! I try to be general, but there’s some giveaways, I’m sure.

The original NBC Premier League commercials featuring Ted Lasso were stupid. Effective, but dumb. Looking back at them, the characters are fully realized, if not who we came to know. Jason Sudeikis had everything, down to the mustache that he gave the backstory on nine years later.

Look, I’m a fan of shows that have a plan. From the pilot to the finale, I like to know that a show had a plan, a goal, a roadmap. Part of that is the incredible, heartbreaking meltdowns of two shows with phenomenal first seasons: Lost and The Killing. Bill Simmons’ epic meltdown on The Killing is still among his best stuff, but Lost is better remembered for literally having no clue what to do past season one.

Lindelof and Abrams gave us a mystery box - the numbers, the button, the clock, the Dharma Project - to buy time to figure it out. Abrams’ famous TED talk about the mystery box tells us the entire trick:

But trick it is. It’s a distraction. It doesn’t matter what’s in Marcellus Wallace’s briefcase because it doesn’t tell the story. For Lost, it was worse than a distraction. It was all they had, with the brief flashes of brilliance - The Constant - even more frustrating in that they were so brief. (And if you count Michael Emerson’s performance as one of those flashes, he’s been better in other things. That was just the first time most of us saw him. He’s better, by far, in Evil.)

When Ted Lasso came to Apple TV+, a service still trying to find an identity, the show quickly became its breakout hit. It was an unlikely choice, given how much the service was pushing onto prestige programming, like The Morning Show, For All Mankind, and See. Those are all great shows - the latter two especially - and Apple’s done as much quality TV as any service. Even when they miss, they do things well.

Lasso’s success is partly timing and partly being a quality original show with a defined and unique point of view. It’s relentlessly positive. Described, Lasso as a character sounds insufferable. He’s Ned Flanders come to life, but by the end of season one, there was a darkness there.

We saw the heart of Roy Kent, the doubts of Jamie Tartt, and the fall of Nathan Shelley. It made an ensemble work perfectly, down to players who you probably don’t know the name of, even if you watch regularly. It made a shining star of Hannah Waddingham, who finally got past “Shame, Shame, Shame” to reveal a triple-threat talent with comedic timing and a Jayne Mansfield presence.

As the show ends, we’ve seen the threads coming together. Shelley’s fallen from his West Ham heights. Keeley’s dalliance with an unnecessary character arc is forgotten, thankfully, and Trent Crimm, an afterthought in the pilot, is now the glue of the third season. They deftly played to all the tropes across multiple genres and twisted them lovingly — the woodwork symphony, the head fake in the airport, the pieces coming out and back together.

It was all there all along. In the commercials, Lasso doesn’t do well with Tottenham and ends up exactly where Lasso ends up. The show closes with most of the questions answered, but doors not closed. We get the “what happens” montage (or dream sequence?) over Cat Stevens, but it was the song before - The Cure’s “In Between Days” - that might tell us more.

Sudeikis has regularly said that he had a plan and that’s clear. He said the story took three seasons, and it did, but the door is open for another story. Imagine Ted Lasso without Ted. It was even suggested in his note to Trent. There’s room for more stories, even if it’s not the same show. And if that’s all we get, we’re better for it.

Thank you all for indulging me in things like today’s open. There was a time when I often felt boxed in by the niche I’d created, but I realize that it’s a privilege, not a box. I can always write other things … sometimes here, sometimes not … but it’s always a privilege to write for you.

On to the injuries:

CHRIS SALE, SP BOS (inflamed shoulder)

Chris Sale has been a revelation this year, returning after several seasons of underperforming and fighting injury. The expectation was that he may have been too far gone to even help, but he’s been the ace the Red Sox needed this season, at least through the first two months. With a WHIP under 1, he’d been frankly dominant and the surprisingly stable part of the rotation, which has struggled with injuries to almost everyone.

Sale left Thursday’s start early, throwing a couple miles an hour down from where he usually is. Pete Abraham noted that Sale had been sick earlier in the week, drinking Pedialyte to stay hydrated. The Sox immediately said that it was shoulder soreness and that Sale would head for an MRI. We won’t know more until that’s completed, but any sort of significant shoulder issue would be devastating. He hasn’t had shoulder issues recently and this kind of delay from his elbow issues wouldn’t follow the normal elbow-to-shoulder kinetic chain problem I’d expect. I’m sure Monday’s UTK will have more clarity on this.

The replacement is unclear. In the short term, Corey Kluber is likely to return to the rotation, but he’s struggled with everything so far. He has been healthy and with no one at Worcester putting up big numbers, it’s also the easiest way to go. The longer term solution, if Sale is out, is less clear unless Kluber turns things around.

LUIS ARRAEZ, IF MIA (unknown leg)

Luis Arraez has been a contact machine for the last couple years, swinging and missing just 2.5 percent of the time. It’s an unthinkable outlier of a stat, but he’s not a BABIP outlier. Because of the extreme contact, his BABIP has been just slightly above his batting average. Interestingly, it seems consistent despite the shift ban and doesn’t seem defensively influenced.

Arraez came out Thursday after a single, breaking up a no-hit bid by Joe Musgove and he hopped a bit after crossing the bag. He stayed in the game another half inning, but was pulled. He’d had some cramping last week, but it’s unknown if this is related. The Marlins were down 10-1 at the time that Arraez came out, so it could have been precautionary.

There was no official comment from the team after and manager Skip Schumacher didn’t mention Arraez in his post-game answers. I’ll take that as something of a positive. The Marlins start a series with the Oakland A’s on Friday with a 6:40 start, so we should know if Arraez is going to miss any time this afternoon. This definitely bears watching given Arraez’s shot at back to back batting titles in different leagues.

JUSTIN STEELE, SP CHC (inflamed forearm)

The Cubs sent Justin Steele for an MRI after leaving his Thursday start early. The focus is on his forearm, leading many to wonder if this is a flexor strain, or worse. He’d pitched well prior to coming out, going three scoreless, so this injury seems like it’s one that came up suddenly.

If it is a flexor strain as many seem to think inside the ivy walls, Steele could be facing an extended absence. We’ve seen pitchers miss a month even on mild strains, with teams being very conservative with the returns here. While we still don’t know the direct relationship between flexor strains and later elbow sprains, teams are very conscious that they don’t want the fans thinking they pushed a player back and lost him to Tommy John for it.

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Steele isn’t ILed, for the rest if nothing else, and Hayden Wesneski is the easy answer to fill, having just stepped in when Steele left the game, throwing three innings of his own. The Cubs have some pitching depth after Kyle Hendricks’ recent return, but it’s a step down given Steele’s big step forward this season.

JACOB DEGROM, SP TEX (strained forearm)

I should never let anything on Twitter get to me and I’m not even going to look who wrote it, but some guy said there that he expected Jacob deGrom to blow out his elbow within a week of his return. (Imagine this in Roy Kent’s voice.) For [bleep]’s sake, you don’t know, you have no evidence, and you’re some guy on Twitter wishing bad things on someone you don’t know. I like to pretend that guys like this who used to kick their dog when they were sad and angry about their life tweet instead of kicking. That’d be one positive.

As for deGrom, he’s been good through bullpen sessions and now the plan for his return is becoming more clear. A decision will be made early next week on whether deGrom will go for a rehab assignment or jump right back into the rotation. If he comes back immediately, he’d basically be doing the rehab in the major league rotation, paired with another pitcher in a tandem at least for the first few starts. There’s an element inside the Rangers braintrust that’s arguing for that to be the plan longer term, with deGrom limited to four or five innings. It’s unclear if that’s because he can’t go deeper without an injury, or if limiting his fatigue makes for a better recovery time.

The equation on how to squeeze the most value out of deGrom all hinges on his health. It’s beginning to feel to me like late stage Greg Maddux, who was never going to go deep into a game, but could be very effective. The Rangers already use a tandem system in their low minors, but there’s been some suggestion that because the Rangers haven’t had success developing pitchers and a lot of injuries, even at those levels, that it’s not working as intended. We’ll know more next week, but it seems like the return of deGrom is going to happen quickly.

RILEY GREENE, OF DET (fractured tibia)

Riley Greene has been everything the Tigers could want in his first two seasons, except available. He missed two months of his rookie season after fouling a ball off his foot and fracturing it; now, he’s got a stress fracture in his tibia that’s going to cost him at least a few weeks and likely more. If bones are his money, he might want to check with the bank.

The initial thought was that Greene had a muscle strain of some sort - AJ Hinch called it a tweak, of course - but an MRI showed the stress fracture. The team, which has been great with medical updates, didn’t explain why a stress fracture would cause an acute reaction or what stress would have caused this in the first place. Greene is headed for a second opinion, so something more is going on here. My worry is that the fracture is in a problematic location, maybe the tibial plateau, but that doesn’t match up with thinking this was a calf strain at the start.

Jake Marisnick will be Greene’s fill-in, but the hope is this isn’t going to derail a breakout season from the age-22 Greene. He’s been the bright spot for the Tigers so far this season, but having missed parts of both MLB seasons with bone issues, he still needs to prove he can stay healthy before he becomes the star they rebuild around in Detroit.

ALEC BOHM, IF PHI (strained hamstring)
DARICK HALL, 1B PHI (sprained thumb)

We’re going to need a live chicken or something, because first base for the Phillies is cursed. Maybe that’s why they haven’t tried Bryce Harper there. With Alec Bohm down, the Phillies don’t even get the benefit of timing on this injury stack, so they’re five down the depth chart, with Kody Clemens available as well. The team has called up Drew Ellis as they wait for Darick Hall to get through his rehab.

On Bohm, it’s a simple strained hamstring. The problems at the position pushed the team to try keeping him out there, but it got worse and the team knew the IL was the best option. It might be more than minimum, but it sounds like not much more. Hamstring injuries can recur, but Bohm hasn’t had issues with it in the minors.

The downside is that Hall is just starting his rehab. After surgery to repair his thumb, the injuries and roster moves pushed him to the 60-day. I haven’t been able to confirm if this was an InternalBrace UCL repair, which normally take about 30 days, while the more standard reconstruction can take a lot longer, up to 90. It makes me think that it was the now-standard repair and he’s been physically ready. How much rehab he’ll need depends on a couple things - how quickly he hits, how quickly he shows power, and how much work he’s been able to do in the past few weeks. Remember, Harper was able to come back quickly in part because he had been using the Trajekt pitching machine. I assume they’d let Hall or other players use the robot!

The question now is what do they do when Bohm is healthy again. He could move back across the diamond, but Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens have near identical season lines, so there’s no real decision point here. It’s a lot of very similar pieces and parts behind the stars, showing just how much this team misses Rhys Hoskins.

NOAH SYNDERGAARD, SP LAD (no injury)

Noah Syndergaard knows he’s not pitching well. He’s calling himself “the weak link” on the Dodgers - I’d say that’s injuries, Noah - which doesn’t bode well for his confidence. But is he hurt? The evidence is no, despite the off-velocity. It’s a reminder that while Tommy John surgery has a really high return rate, sometimes something is seemingly left on the table.

The thought was that Mark Prior and the Dodgers braintrust could help Syndergaard get back to what he was, or at least help him maximize what’s left. I spoke with a team source who tells me that mechanically, the only change is one that was worked on at the start of camp. He wouldn’t tell me specifically what it was, but I see a slight difference in his finishing posture. In 2022 video, Syndergaard will have his foot turn after contact. That seems to be missing in 2023.

As for his stuff, there have been some changes. Syndergaard debuted a new splitter and stuff guru Lance Brozdowski thinks that might be a new Dodgers recipe. Earlier, Brozdowski noted that Syndergaard’s curve had changed into a sweeper. The results certainly aren’t there, the fastball’s down another tick, and the biggest issue is that the Dodgers really don’t have a better option right now.

Quick Cuts:

Thoughts and prayers to Alex Rodriguez … Carlos Correa is having a “flare up” of his plantar fasciitis. That’s common and shows the medical staff is still working to reduce the pain while keeping the function … Anthony Rendon was on field doing some fielding drills, but he was notably not throwing. Seems like he’s further away from a return than many thought … Cal Quantrill will hit the IL with shoulder inflammation, making room for Aaron Civale to be activated … Josh Donaldson was also activated by the Yankees, alongside Stanton. The team also should get Anthony Rizzo back from his neck soreness over the weekend … Reading that Simmons piece reminds me of just how great Page 2 was. I can’t imagine ESPN or anyone trying to do that now … Ethan Salas went 2 for 3 in his minor league debut. He’s 16.