Under The Knife 6/20/25

End of a Rays Era

Stu Sternberg’s tenure as owner of the Tampa Bay Rays ends not with a bang, but with a patched roof. It’s a fitting, if understated, symbol of an era defined by contradiction: innovation and inertia, brilliance and missed opportunities. Under Sternberg, the Rays became the model for how to win without money, but they also became the cautionary tale of what happens when success on the field can’t overcome structural failure off of it.

Sternberg bought the team in 2005, and while it took a few years to find footing, the Rays quickly transformed from perennial punchline to perennial threat. The front office, operating on a shoestring budget, developed an organizational philosophy that married data, development, and a willingness to zig where others zagged. They did Moneyball better than the A’s. The result? A decade and a half of consistent contention, multiple playoff appearances, and one of the most influential baseball cultures in the sport.

That legacy might be more visible outside of Tampa Bay than within it.

Andrew Friedman, the original architect of the Rays’ modern identity, now runs the Dodgers, where his analytical foundation is fused with massive payroll and elite scouting. He’s already got a couple rings. James Click left Tampa and won a World Series in Houston. Chaim Bloom takes over a Cardinals franchise that, like the Rays, believes in process and consistency. Peter Bendix is in Miami, trying to import the Rays’ formula to another cash-strapped franchise. There are more: executives, coaches, scouts, analysts - each shaped by the ethos developed in the shadow of Tropicana Field, each spreading it across the league like disciples of a secret church.

That’s Sternberg’s real contribution. Not the half-full dome or the stitched-together rosters. It’s the tree he planted.

Yet trees, however sturdy, need a place to grow. The Rays never truly had one. Stadium deals fell through. Fans wouldn’t cross bridges. The market never fully bought in and Sternberg, for all his front office brilliance, never managed to fix that. The new ownership group, backed by money from real estate, finance, and development, enters with a different mandate. They’re not trying to prove you can win with less. They’re trying to make Tampa Bay a baseball market that matters.

Whether they can, or even should keep the team in St. Petersburg remains an open question. We’ll see if guys who build and finance homes can do the same for a modern ballpark, especially when just up the road in Orlando, there’s another group who has a location, a plan, and a willingness to wait for expansion if necessary. While the front office remains competent, much of the alchemy has already been bottled and sold elsewhere. What’s left is a solid, smart team with a tired fanbase, a crumbling ballpark in a hurricane zone, and the ghosts of what might have been.

Sternberg exits having built one of the most effective franchises in the sport’s modern era. He leaves, however, without the ring, the stadium, or the parade. His legacy may never be fully embraced in Tampa, but across baseball, his influence is unmistakable. The Rays were never the biggest, but they were often the smartest. That started with him.

On to the injuries:

YORDAN ALVAREZ, DH HOU (fractured hand)

Yordan Alvarez isn’t making progress and the Astros are starting to get worried. Without his bat, the team’s lineup is decimated. More that that, since the word comes from Roman legions losing ten percent of their force and losing the ability to hold formation. The Astros had already traded away Kyle Tucker and lost Alex Bregman to free agency, so that’s viginti duo centesimae. (Ok, I know there’s one reader out there who gets the reference.)

Alvarez’s hand is simply not making progress and the medical staff is stymied. The fracture simply isn’t healing normally and most fractures, well, do. They heal normally, on a normal schedule in a normal way. “Bones heal” is what I often say and when they don’t, it’s unusual and usually even then it has some reason. The Astros and Alvarez don’t have that. It’s something of a mystery, though they certainly have more information than the rest of us.

The worry here is that if it doesn’t heal normally at first, it doesn’t heal normally at all. The grip strength is key to Alvarez’s combination of power and bat control, so this is an issue for his key skill. I’m very curious to see where the Astros and the medical staff go from here, especially if there’s external pressure to send him to specialists in the near term.

MAX SCHERZER, SP TOR (inflamed thumb)

Max Scherzer went over 50 pitches - way over, to 75 - and that was good. The downside is that there was a major setback after, with significant soreness in the thumb that set in towards the end. A source tells me Scherzer pushed it some, knowing he needed to get past 75 to get back to Toronto. Even less ideal, those 75 pitches came in less than five innings, so even if Scherzer is able to make his side session and get activated — there’s no more rehab time and he can’t be optioned — there’s no clarity on what Scherzer can actually do.

This is again a seeming failure of imagination, but at the same time, the Jays have Eric Lauer right there, going less than 5 innings every time out, and perfectly willing to deal with that. If Scherzer could only go 50 pitches, or 60, isn’t there a place for that? I like the Jays front office and think it’s good, and smart for the most part. I wonder why this isn’t apparent to them, which makes me also wonder - what am I missing? My guess is that they’re seeing something in the data that tells them Scherzer’s not as good as Lauer … and that’s a weird sentence to type.

One of the hardest things to understand in baseball is that it’s hard to see the now. If Max Scherzer’s pitch data indicates he’s not as good as Eric Lauer — no offense to Lauer, but he’s not making a Hall of Fame case — then it’s hard to distance that from the Scherzer we think of, the Scherzer that won a ring just a few years ago, and that had a real chance to be a back end influence on a winning roster. That’s still there, maybe, but the data is tough to take.

No one wants to be the dreamkiller, even if the dreamer has multicolored eyes and has been doing this for two decades. Think back to Bull Durham, when Crash Davis knew he should walk away, that he should go manage in Visalia, but he still wants the home run record he doesn’t want announced. Some things don’t change.

This is normally the point where I’d place the paywall, but the Pacers won and we’re going a bit shorter form today from this point. Go with it. I had the Sternberg piece lined up from the time I heard it was happening and with Pacers G6 win going late, I’ll admit I didn’t make as many calls. Go read Jeff Stotts and Scott Agness talking about how the Pacers medical staff made this game (and how the Pacers helped the Thunder build one of the top sports performance staffs around.)

There’s a new Substack from an old friend. Go check it out and support his work.

LUKE WEAVER, RP NYY (strained hamstring)

Weaver is expected to be activated on Friday, but it’s not as clear what Aaron Boone’s plan is for his role. Weaver has done well in his rehab, with treatments saving a couple weeks of his expected loss. That means that Devin Williams, who’s done well while Weaver has been out, may hold the role and let Weaver get his feet wet in less leveraged situations for now.

WILYER ABREU, OF BOS (strained oblique)

Abreu is coming off the IL after a quick rehab and will push Kristian Campbell back to the minors for now. With the trade of Rafael Devers, Abreu may start more at DH with Roman Anthony up, but the Sox don’t have the roster they want due to injuries. As Alex Bregman comes back and their young players play, the team thinks the roster will “sort itself,” per a trusted source.

OTTO KEMP, IF PHI (bruised knee)

With Bryce Harper still out with his wrist, Otto Kemp fouling a ball off his knee is less than ideal. That kind of injury is often more painful than serious and he was back in the lineup on Thursday, though I didn’t see whether he was really tested or had any sort of limp or deficit. It’s a positive that he was able to get out there, both for him and the team.

CORBIN CARROLL, OF ARZ (bruised hand)

Of all people to get a #paddedglove! Cousin Corbin was hit on the hand Wednesday and wanted to play on Thursday but was held out due to the level of bruising. He should be back this weekend, even as soon as Friday. I still do not get, even a little, why player continue to resist this. Shohei Ohtani wears one! Be like Shohei!

MAX MEYER, SP MIA (hip impingement)

Max Meyer is heading to see a hip specialist later this week for a second opinion on his impingement. There is some worry with the team that this is going to be more extensive than originally thought, meaning Janson Junk is being transitioned to the rotation and could stick. If nothing else, it makes it a bit more complicated to trade away Sandy Alcantara as expected.

Quick(er) Cuts:

The scariest thing is a foul ball screaming at you. Statcast said it was 105 coming in and hitting pitcher Hunter Bigge in the face while he was sitting in the dugout. We fixed the crowd with the nets, so we need the same for dugouts, please. Prayers for Bigge right now and praise that it wasn’t his eye as initially thought … Tony Gonsolin (elbow) was transferred to the 60-day IL despite his UCL being intact. It’s a roster move, mostly, as Gonsolin wasn’t likely to ramp up before August … Cristian Javier (elbow) threw a one inning sim game/live batting practice and could be heading across town for a rehab assignment next week … Shane Bieber (elbow) is back to throwing after a setback early in his rehab assignment. The expectation is he’ll continue a progression and be back on rehab in early July … Aaron Nola (ankle/rib) was shifted to the 60-day, which means he’s out until after the ASB … Brett Baty (groin) continues to be out of the lineup, but the fact he was said to be available on Thursday is a positive sign … I questioned whether Gage Wood might be a helium guy coming off his CWS no-hitter. Kiley McDaniel has him at 16 to the Twins, saying he could go as high as 12 … Kade Anderson isn’t a helium guy. He could legit go 1-1, but the likelihood is he’s at 1-2 to the Angels and makes the rotation as soon as the team feels his workload is managed. He’s thrown 110 innings at LSU, so there’s probably a low ceiling on his pro innings this season … Mark Walter buying majority control of the Lakers is an interesting deal. The valuation is high but he’s not out of pocket nearly that much. All he lacks for now is an NFL team … This should never happen, but a source tells me that teams may have to up security in the short term, with a “tech solution” coming. I’m told that means that cameras trained on fans during games could identify violators and block them at the ticketless entrance systems in the future, or at least alert teams that troublemakers were available. A little Big Brother, but probably a positive overall.