Under The Knife 6/11/21

Free Friday: Spinning It

During a discussion with someone this week, I was discussing how some biomechanical measures like hip/shoulder separation and stride length could end up as important as spin rate. Their response was “that blew my mind, that the ball spun 2000 times on the way to the plate.” I paused, thinking I couldn’t have heard that right, but yes, this person - a smart person, mind you - thought spin rate was a ‘counting stat’ describing the spin on an actual pitch and not a description of the spin in terms of the more-understandable revolutions per minute.

It led to a long discussion on Twitter and doing some math behind the scenes with Dr. Meredith Wills (that had already been done). While I couldn’t find out why the wizards at Rapsodo decided to use RPM rather than actual spin, it’s likely that velocity and release point is such a key. Also, 2500 rpm is much more impressive than 17. When we look at the slight difference in actual rotations and the ability for the ball’s spin and drag to affect the flight, it’s amazing it does anything at all, let alone moves the way it does. Watch Pitching Ninja and it’s amazing how much we’re able to do and it seems like it’s increasing over the past few years, after we were able to measure it.

It was a reminder to me that even terms I think of as basic aren’t to everyone. I guess the guy that keeps having to explain “a sprain is a tear” should know better. Let’s get to the injuries and updates on this latest Free Friday:

Nick Madrigal 2B CWS (strained hamstring)

Nick Madrigal pulled up and essentially pulled himself after feeling something in his hamstring. It looked like he’d strained the hamstring, but also that he’d caught it early. Maybe the timing looked the same, but the injury was much more severe than it looked and certainly more than it expected.

I often rail about how people mistake strain or sprain and tear. A sprain is a tear, yes, but when you hear smart medical people say tear, they often mean rupture and in the case of Madrigal, that’s exactly what happened. One of the muscles of the hamstring ruptured - completely or nearly completely came apart - at the proximal (nearer the body, up by the butt) end and he hits the 60-day IL immediately, signalling that this isn’t going to be quick and might still be surgical.

The hamstring is not a muscle. It’s a group of muscles with similar function, in this case to bend the knee. The muscle contracts and pulls the tibia towards the butt. Because the muscle group has some redundancy, it can lose some strength or function and stay functional, but in the sense that some ancient ancestor could hobble home from a hunt after hurting himself, not in that Madrigal could play baseball after this type of injury.

Surgery to re-attach the muscle hasn’t been ruled out, but they’re going to watch it for a few days and consult some surgeons to figure out the best course. Surgery would likely wipe out the rest of Madrigal’s season. Madrigal should be able to heal up without surgery, but there will be some residual weakness in that area, though the other muscles can make up for the function. This is going to be a tough one for Madrigal in both the short and long term.

Spencer Turnbull SP DET (strained forearm)

Quick - point to your forearm. Now, point to your elbow. They are not, as I hope you noticed, the same thing. Close, yes. Connected, yes, but not the same. The myth that forearm issues always leads to elbow issues is understandable - it seems that way and some teams have misled a bit with injury designations - but more and more, we’re seeing that the interrelated parts of pitching don’t always act the way we think they should.

Remember - we don’t actually know how the forearm and elbow interact in the pitching motion. It’s still theory that the two work together and that the flexors take some of the load off the UCL. It’s a widely accepted theory, but it’s not proven. That makes forearm strains like what Spencer Turnbull is dealing with as complex an issue as any with a pitcher’s elbow.

Also, AJ Hinch didn’t help. Hinch said the issue was “muscular in nature, but not a strain” and of course “not a structural issue.” If Turnbull’s forearm is swelling without an underlying muscle strain, that’s even more problematic, but I don’t think that’s the case. I couldn’t find a source that would confirm there’s a strain, likely a minor one, but everything points to that, even Hinch’s unhelpful quote.

The Tigers medical staff has all the right information and they’ll be working to get Turnbull back, but so will the analytics department. Turnbull’s slider is by far his best pitch and he’s throwing it more this season, as he should be. Is that part of the issue for his forearm? I dont know, but it’s knowable — and if the Tigers would like to know, I work for a company that does just that! He’s also throwing his fastball a little harder as well, but he’s not getting more swing-and-miss with either.

We’ll get a sign when Turnbull starts throwing again. I’d be surprised if his downtime is long and might involve some short, flat ground stuff that we don’t hear about publicly. He shouldn’t be out long after that. As with Means, below, we have to wonder if there’s some connection between Turnbull’s no hitter and this current situation. There’s no evidence, but two in the same time frame is intriguing and terrible all at once.

UPDATE: The confusion between “not a strain” and “muscular in nature” continues, but one source points to Miles Mikolas’ calcification inside the muscle as one answer. I continue to think this is just a translation error between AJ Hinch, likely overthinking things, and the medical info.

John Means SP BAL (strained shoulder)

There’s no evidence that throwing a no-hitter is where John Means got injured or that it contributed in any way. At least no evidence that I have. Internally, that’s a data friendly organization, so maybe they do, but my point is that while it seems easy to connect the dots and say “no hitter then injury”, it’s not really instructive and should be avoided without evidence. Was he fatigued? Don’t know. Did his mechanics change? Don’t know. Did his shoulder specifically have any sort of issues post-no-hitter that never really recovered? Don’t know.

What we do know is that Means came out very early in his last start, with the medical staff quick to pull him, which usually indicates either severity or some previous knowledge of an issue. The shoulder strain is not considered serious, per sources, but Means is on track to test career highs in innings so a short rest to get his shoulder right is the smart move. The assumption is that a minimum or close down time won’t make it hard to get him back on the mound.

Means is one of those players that will define the Orioles as they come out of the rebuild. If you go back to a team like the 2014 Astros, clearly the model for this front office, there’s not a lot on the pitching side that was still there just a few years later when they won a World Series. Means might be the Dallas Keuchel of the group and that’s valuable. His health is more important than a couple wins for a team that’s still looking to the future.

UPDATE: An MRI showed “no structural damage” and we all know how that phrase gets used. The worry here is less the strain than which muscle, which is still unknown publicly, but inside I have no doubt they’re working hard on this. As long as it’s not the rotator cuff or something like what Corey Kluber dealt with last year (teres major), then rest and rehab should work.

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Trevor Story SS COL (strained elbow)

There’s two parts to any injury to a player on the verge of free agency. First is how it affect him and his team now, then second comes how it affects his value, both as a free agent and as a trade possibility. Getting Trevor Story back near the minimum and producing will be key and to the medical staff’s credit, at least the first part looks in place.

Story’s elbow strain was always considered minor, but the likelihood of him exacerbating it both in the field and at the plate, plus the possibility of diminished production and the chance to look at Brendan Rodgers made the IL stint too easy. Things have gone well, or at least to plan, in his rehab, and Story has made it through all the steps, plus started the baseball activities this week. There’s no reason to think he won’t be activated Thursday.

Story will slot right back into the lineup, pushing Brendan Rodgers aside given his lowly numbers as a replacement. Rodgers will shift over to second on some basis, but the Rockies are going to have to factor that in to their value of Story, assuming he’s even willing to listen and if not, they have to keep that elbow healthy to get any sort of return. There’s not really a contender that needs a shortstop - something of a tell there - so we may see the Rockies stuck with an exit tour.

UPDATE: Story returned as planned and went 1 for 3. He showed no ill effects of the elbow and should be on track to put up nice standard numbers. I talked to a scout that watched the game and thinks Story will be moved to a contender in July. “The Rockies are going to get through the All Star game and then sell. Story, (Jon) Gray, maybe a couple more. They’ll sell and then start in on a long list of possible GMs, but nobody wants that job.”

Sonny Gray SP CIN (strained groin)

The Cincinnati Reds have put a lot of emphasis on pitching as they try to turn things around. They’ve focused on development, but let their Cy Young winner walk, albeit without a real chance of keeping him. There’s lots of possible talent in the pipeline, but the pandemic held some of it back, we think, but there’s still a chance we see some of it this season. The biggest downside has been at the major league level, where Luis Castillo has taken a step back and now Sonny Gray is injured again. That’s not to say this is a failure, but it’s not the step forward the team wants either.

Gray has been solid this year, with his stats outpacing his W/L record and his underlying data all positive, especially his ability to miss bats and induce weak contact. The groin strain he suffered shouldn’t cost him any of that, just some time and starts as he heals. The worry is that could take more like a month than the one or two starts that have been floated. Watch to see when Gray starts throwing again, especially off a mound. He’ll need to keep that as low as possible without taxing the strained groin to keep his arm ready. Delays there will signal a longer stint on the IL.

The Reds have some top tier talent, plus they may have some advantage in picking up lower level talent. While we’re waiting to see that bubble up, the Reds have to figure out how to deploy the talent they have and right now, the mix isn’t working well. There’s a longer leash than in most places and the Reds aren’t out of the mix in the NL Central just yet, but it will be interesting to see how ownership would deal with a fourth place finish.

UPDATE: The Reds say Gray will miss two starts, but trying to calendar this out, I think that if Riley O’Brien puts up decent starts, they’ll stretch this past the All Star break, but again, we’ll know by the first mound session what the schedule will be.

Quick Cuts:

Lance McCullers went four innings in Sugar Land and thinks he’s ready to return. The Astros seem to agree and that would mean he’d be available next week … Michael Kopech isn’t ready to return due to his hamstring strain. We know his force is high, so having everything in line is more key for him than most. There’s also some concern that he isn’t recovering quite as well as a reliever … Luke Voit has been out more than in, but his oblique strain has cleared. He’ll start a quick rehab assignment Sunday and should be back within days … Zach Britton hasn’t been great during his rehab assignment, but he hasn’t had physical setbacks since his elbow surgery. He’s likely to be activated over the weekend … Tejay Antone was unavailable Thursday and David Bell said there would be an update on Friday. The ominous music is playing … Ramon Laureano says he wants to build up his stamina in a couple games of a rehab assignment. I think the word he’s looking for is “comfort” … Cavan Biggio neck sprain is healed up enough that he’ll come off the IL this weekend. He’ll slot right back into the lineup … Jon Gray is throwing from 90 feet. That’s nice, dear. Look, until you get out at Alan Jaeger distances, I don’t care. Any team or rehab that limits to 120 doesn’t know where it came from. (The Dodgers only had 120 feet in an area near their then training room, so that became Dr. Kerlan’s standard.)

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