Under The Knife 6/10/24

BvP

Something I said in Wednesday’s UTK, about how an individual game situation is more important to what a pitcher should throw, ignited an email debate between two readers, another writer, and myself. I won’t name names here, because I want to be very clear about my position on an issue that came to a head back in 2015 - the great BvP Holy War.

Some of you youngsters may not remember, but on the frontlines at FanDuel in the days when daily fantasy was suddenly king, a contingent of players - some quite successful - were using “batter versus pitcher” (quickly shortened to BvP) data as a way to pick players. The other side quickly pointed out what a terrible idea this was, given the ridiculously small sample size. A war ensued, but it wasn’t genuine.

The side using BvP were also using a big data advantage, using Statcast data and some very smart modeling to create a larger data set. It wasn’t this specific pitcher against this specific batter they were really playing. Instead, they were creating types. This pitcher with this kind of stuff works against that batter with that kind of swing. It’s much more detailed than that, and I’ve heard that recent models integrate the new data we have now like pitch shapes and swing paths.

I think too many fans still think the pitcher is out there having some sort of internal debate, like Nook LaLoosh wanting to establish his presence.

You’d think PitchCom would have established that wasn’t the way of the world any more, and the pitch clock would cut things down. (Yeah, Nook was way over the clock there.)

We have far more data now and data points where those with supercomputer access could have significant advantages. It’s not as expensive now, since instead of buying a Cray you can just spool up Google Cloud - it’s an MLB sponsor, so they teams get great rates - and the gamblers can do that just as easily.

And this isn’t a situation where a point has to be proved. Gamblers will go hard on a theory, though the data-driven ones can backtest it thoroughly before executing. Even if BvP is a fool’s game in large numbers, there might (and likely do) exist matchups and situations where there’s a significant advantage. That’s all some gamblers need to stack up props and units.

So the answer to this is that largely, BvP doesn’t work and the sample sizes are seldom large enough until you do some tricks like compositing types into personas to be useful. At the same time, gamblers are using this to find the edge cases where it does work to gain a significant advantage. Don’t take this as some argument against gambling or making out those seeking an edge as some nefarious descendant of Arnold Rothstein. Finding an edge is the same, in principle, when Billy Beane figures out OBP is underrated and makes his team better. Some gamblers have gone on to high positions with teams and even the league. That some are being caught should make us feel better, not worse, about the state of the game.

So, that argued, my email box and comments are open, and let’s get to the injuries:

JUAN SOTO, OF NYY (inflamed forearm)

After all the doom and gloom of the initial worry about Juan Soto, the answer to what was going on with his forearm is “not much.” The imaging showed inflammation and while the Yankees haven’t been specific about the treatment, whether it was an injection, a simple course of anti-inflammatories, and treatment from the medical staff, it’s such that Soto could play as early as Sunday. After the game, Boone acknowledged that Soto probably wasn’t ready, making it some question when he’ll slot back in.

If there’s one thing that has me worried, it’s how it was reported. I know, that can be a far cry from how it actually happened, but the whole “initial imaging” was odd. Of course an MRI is going to be read by a radiologist and that’s first, not last. Was there another doctor or someone from the agent in the room when it was taken? That’s my guess based on how it came out and the odd phrasing. I think we can discount some of the medical terms here as misheard or misinterpreted, and that the Yankees handled this in their normal way. Dr. Ahmad runs a tight ship.

I do have to wonder if the fanbase freakout is going to guide the Yankees. They tend to just do what they do and Aaron Boone especially doesn’t seem bothered by the high pressure, but in a situation where they were very transparent about what was going on and the process, there wasn’t much gain here for them. I’m hoping that there will be a bit more trust in what they say in the future since being open should get you some trust coins in the bank. Look at how the Kansas City Chiefs dealt this week with a very unusual situation, but they’ve always been very open, to the point of regularly allowing their Athletic Trainer to speak to the media.

YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO, SP LAD (no injury)

A lot was made of Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the Friday Apple broadcast and both his manager and Aaron Judge made comments about the quality of his outing afterwards. Both also noted that he was throwing harder than normal and one baseball insider asked me about that. The question is whether he amped things up because he’s been coasting a bit, leaving some in reserve for when he needs it, or whether he was overthrowing, letting the adrenaline give him a turbo boost. While there’s no way of knowing from out here, I’m very curious because there’s a huge difference in the effects of both.

There’s some note from Dodgers media that Yamamoto found something he was doing mechanically that freed him up and changed his mechanics. This is something the Dodgers have regularly done with pitchers and why some pitchers they acquire suddenly get some extra velocity. There’s various theories about how they’re doing it but much of the credit goes to the pitching staff, led by Mark Prior. The details are fuzzy, but it’s intriguing to me how the Dodgers, despite injuries, seem to get the most out of pitching staffs. Prior’s backstory might end up his super power.

Of course, we won’t know the effect, if any, on Yamamoto until at least his next start. Does the velocity gain stick and what does that do for him in the short and long term? Japanese pitchers don’t automatically get Tommy John when they get over to America, but it’s pretty close. As more come, it should even out and get to the one-third level we normally see with the theory being that most of the ones previously have been only the super-elite and later in their careers. I think it’s the change in training, but that’s leveled out as the game has globalized over the last twenty years.