Under The Knife 6/10/22
Never Rafa Benitez
Joe Maddon’s gone and I will admit that spending time in and around European football has changed the way I think about coaches. Like Joe Sheehan, much of my “firing coaches” consciousness came from George Steinbrenner but even the Yankees are a paragon of stability - I’ve been doing this twenty plus years and Brian Cashman’s been the GM the whole time, with three managers under him. If you’re winning and it’s working, there’s no reason to change. However, it’s more interesting when it’s not working.
American sports, by and large, tend to be stable. I think that’s an American attitude left over from the 1950’s. Work hard, do the right things, and GM’s pension plan will take care of you. No one gets fired for buying IBM. That’s all out the window, mostly, but sports will gladly hang on to a mediocre coach for years, because he’s friendly, likable, or has a trophy somewhere in his resume.
Baseball managers are seldom the “work their way up” guys they used to be. Brian Snidtker is an anomaly now, while Aaron Boone, Rocco Baldelli, Gabe Kapler and Dave Roberts are the norm - recent ex-players who can ‘speak the language’ of the modern player. Yes, Dusty Baker and Terry Francona are know for that as well, but let’s not use exceptions to prove much here.
Managers are hired to manage. It’s seldom strategy, seldom personnel decisions, but to execute things and keep people in more or less the right headspace. Kapler’s motivational Robbins-isms are more in line with what teams want these days. But as with Maddon, it’s the same. He was thought to be the master mind manipulator in his two previous stops, but it didn’t work in Los Angeles? Personality maybe, but it probably comes down to talent and fit. Lots of things work when you win.
So should baseball hold on to managers? I’m not convinced teams can change enough in season to make it worthwhile. Switching a team from a 4-3-3 to a 4-4-2 isn’t really possible in baseball. You can make some personnel switches, but not many. Does someone get a boost from a new voice or from knowing their poor play got someone the gate? Maybe, but that’s not sustainable. What it normally comes down to is fit, an amorphous term that like pornography, you know it when you see it. A general manager should know his team well enough to know if the expiration date has passed.
The problem in American sports, I believe, is that firing a manager or head coach is often a white flag. Bringing in an interim coach seldom does much and often, if it goes well, puts that interim coach in a position to hold the job. He wasn’t the guy before, but is now?
Let’s say that Arte Moreno wants to swap things up. Maybe he needs a disciplinarian to tell his talented players to shape up. Is Lou Piniella wanting back in baseball? Maybe the team wants a more technical manager. If so, Joe Girardi seems to be free these days. If Nippon Ham weren’t dead last, I’d suggest Tsuyoshi Shinjo, just for the sheer drama.
Big Boss aside, the Angels aren’t different than most and while Phil Nevin has been considered for major league jobs, he hasn’t been hired for most of them, which is why he was coaching third for the Angels in the first place. One could argue that Nevin was a “stash” - the kind of easily elevated coach that most teams have handy, that could take over the team in case of suspension or this kind of unexpected scenario. Looking at coaching rosters, almost every team has one, and searches seldom go past those, plus the aforementioned recently retired players. Searches are not broad, even as teams use million-dollar search firms to check boxes.
There’s still advantages to be found in baseball. One of those might just be in one of the areas where we have almost no objective insight or measures, the managerial slot. Will anyone work to figure it out, or even experiment? My guess is no, not any time soon, and not any more than the slight ones we’ve seen. For now, let’s look at the injuries:
FERNANDO TATIS JR, SS/OF SDP (fractured wrist)
There were some reports out early this week that Fernando Tatis Jr was headed for a scan on his healing wrist. I can confirm this, having talked to not one, but two Pads employees who told me not only was there a scan scheduled, but that the expectation was that he would immediately start hitting. I don’t believe my sources - even my best sources - are infallible, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Something changed and even if there wasn’t a setback, something changed in the schedule.
Naturally, the Padres have tightened up the messaging and are focused on “not a setback, but the scan is a week from now.” They’re not saying delayed or a week later, just a week away. I spoke with some doctors and physical therapists who have dealt with similar cases and none could give me a reason. “Why don’t they do the scan now, and in a week? Are they worried about the cost?” said one AL therapist. This was echoed, with one doctor suggesting they did an x-ray or fluoroscope, or that some therapy or movement caused Tatis some pain, so they pushed it back or whatever you want to call it. It’s speculative, but it makes sense.
The fact we have is that Tatis’ return is at least another week out. Even if all else was true, that Tatis can ramp up quickly, every game without him is a game the Padres aren’t at full strength. They’re losing days, dollars, and opportunity. If some of that is because the medical staff - who isn’t responsible for the injury - hasn’t taken full responsibility for reducing the effect of the injury.
MIKE TROUT, OF LAA (strained groin)
The Angels finally got a win, but it looked a bit too much like 2021 for them, with Shohei Ohtani getting the W as the starter, hitting a home run, and everyone else seemingly sitting back and watching. Mike Trout was on the bench for a second game after straining his groin on the base paths, and it seems the Angels are reconsidering whether or not this might need a trip to the IL for healing.
Trout missed extensive time last year with a calf strain and ended up going outside of the team for rehab. He’s had no noticeable issues with the calf this season, but there’s always the question about asymmetry and change of gait, but those are things he worked on in the off-season. The better question now would be has he been able to keep those up while with the team.
The Angels will make a decision by the weekend on an IL stint, with the retro move a bit of a motivator. However, the roster might force the move, given how many injuries the team already has and the need to have someone who can play on the bench. This is one where the 13 and 14 man pens are really holding teams back. Forget roster rules - some team should get an advantage of adding a bat rather than their ninth best pitcher to the roster. I feel like all those number crunchers out there could find the next Lenny Harris or find an advantage in having someone who hits the type of pitcher we see in late innings.
CLAYTON KERSHAW, SP LAD (inflamed back)
I’ve operated under the assumption that Clayton Kershaw is in the last year of his career, though that could have been the assumption for the last few. I thought he’d go out on top after the World Series win, but he’s shown that he’s still good when healthy and at 11 wins from 200, there’s likely some consideration there. (Granted, that number was 25 after he lifted the hunk of metal.)
Kershaw’s come back well from an SI joint inflammation at the base of his back. The Dodgers have continually referred to this as a pelvis issue, which is accurate if inelegant. The worry is that the joint issue would alter mechanics, even subtly, and put more pressure on his back, his elbow, or who knows what. The Dodgers should know that, given their tools and analysts watching closely, but at the same time, all of the king’s men haven’t been able to keep Kershaw more healthy than they have. I think this is about as healthy as he can be expected to be, so the Dodgers medical staff shouldn’t take that as a slight.
The decision on Kershaw’s return is really more of which day. If Kershaw starts Saturday, Julio Urias would go back a day and there’s likely some consideration about whether the bullpen will be tired from a short Kershaw outing, forcing Urias to go deeper. They have a scheduled off-day Monday, which helps, as well as perhaps going RLR with Walker Buehler, then Kershaw and Urias against a platoon-heavy Giants club.
People often say to wait past that first start after coming off the IL to start a pitcher in fantasy, DFS, or even to take the line on a recently injured pitcher. A line isn’t up yet on the Kershaw game, due to the uncertainty of which day he’ll go, but I wouldn’t hesitate in any of these contexts. The Dodgers wouldn’t start him if they didn’t think he could go and while he’s not likely to go deep into games, the Dodgers seem to have a very good idea of squeezing the most out of him. I feel like the matchup and Kershaw’s status might make this a game to hit.
JAKE BURGER, IF CWS (cramping quad)
Jake Burger hit a homer in Thursday’s game, but left with a leg injury. He made an awkward play, then seemed uncomfortable on the bases. He was removed for Yoan Moncada, but I’m curious why a team that has dealt with so many leg injuries this season didn’t have him out more quickly with Moncada available. Once again, I’ll blame the short bench.
After the game, reports were that Burger’s situation was just cramping, which would explain why he was allowed to stay in - treat the cramp and hope they don’t recur - but the recent history with leg injuries makes this one loom a bit larger, so we can’t just dismiss this with the normal “oh just a cramp.” We have to go one step - no pun intended - more and ask why Burger was cramping and whether it’s related to why the Sox have seen so many leg injuries.
In the short term, if it’s just a cramp, Burger should be back in the lineup shortly, but the Sox’ problem remain and as yet, sources tell me that there’s no clear plan for fixing whatever the issue is that’s leading to this unusual outcome on the South Side.
NELSON CRUZ, DH WAS (strained back)
A late scratch for back tightness is never good, but it’s seldom a big worry. It’s a bit more for age-41 Nelson Cruz, so much so that he’s headed for an MRI today.
This would be a worry for any player, but an older, still very hard swinging slugger is going to be affected more by this. If Cruz can’t swing, he can’t be on the roster since there’s no secondary skill. That makes the quick MRI even more concerning. This doesn’t appear to be something that is merely a back spasm or even a clear pulled muscle. Instead, there’s at least worry that there’s something structural or nerve-related.
There’s such a wide range of possibilities that speculating won’t help anything. At this stage, there’s not nearly enough info and the Nationals themselves probably only have a theory at this stage. If it’s structural, Cruz is headed for the IL and the Nats can fill in his DH slot with a number of possibilities, including rotating it around for some position player “rest”. Even if it’s not, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Cruz got a 10-day IL stint to make sure it’s cleared up.
Cruz is in his second season of clear decline, making this even tougher. Maybe a minor injury can lead to a re-set or a hard look as to whether Nelson Cruz is still helping a team like the Nats, who surprised many by signing him in the first place. If he’s healthy and hitting in July, there’s some teams that will look hard at him as a DH upgrade and any solid return will make that Nats signing look smart.
TYLER STEPHENSON, C CIN (fractured thumb)
The Reds haven’t had many bright spots this season, but Tyler Stephenson has been one. He’s been a solid catcher and has hit more than expected, though the Reds indicated they believed in him by trading away Tucker Barnhart. Switching to a bat-first catcher from a glove-first seems to have worked, even if the return for Barnhart was more the open slot on the roster and not exercising his option than the age-24 third baseman in Single-A hitting .237.
The downside is keeping a catcher healthy and Stephenson’s had bad luck here. The Reds medical staff will take the hit, but they couldn’t have prevented his concussion a couple weeks back or now, his fractured thumb. Stephenson took a foul off his hand and I’m old enough to remember every catcher being told to keep his hand back. That’s less the technique, post-Johnny Bench, ironically, and it’s harder to protect that hand and keep it ready to throw. Possible? Probably.
Stephenson will be out around six weeks as it heals, with the key being how quickly his grip strength comes back. From reports, it sounds like it’s a pretty clean break so the Reds hope this will be a simple wait for the bone to heal, with easy testing along the way. Replacing Stephenson’s bat will be tougher. Aramis Garcia and Chris Okey are more Quad-A types that upside plays. This injury could be a signal that it’s time to start selling early (again) in Cincy.
Quick Cuts:
Aroldis Chapman will get on the mound this weekend. All is going well with his recovery from Achilles tendinitis. A source tells me that he’s doing well and that the focus is on how to best prevent and maintain flareups like he had … Tylor Megill will start Friday after coming off the IL. My apologies for letting autocorrect slip a “Tyler” past me earlier this week and I would like a talk with his parents … Nathan Eovaldi will make his next start for the Sox, despite the issue with his hip. The Sox aren’t offering much up in the way of details, so be careful … Lance McCullers is making some progress but the Astros realize that it’s slow and frought with setback danger. Don’t expect him back until after the ASB … Mitch Haniger is hitting, but not running. HIs ankle has a ways to go and we’re definitely going to see a rehab assignment before he returns. That’s not happening next week and this could go into July … Jocelyn Alo finishes one of the epic seasons and careers in NCAA history. Per Axios, her wRC+ was 303. Honest question - could a team draft her late and then just see if she could adjust to hitting baseballs? Seems worth a shot … If the bases-loaded walk to Corey Seager was a watershed moment for Joe Maddon, yesterday’s inexplicable 1-2 count to intentional walk by Tony La Russa has to be the same. Worse was his explanation (or lack thereof) after. He’s holding the team back.