Under The Knife 5/7/25

What's that you say, Subtitle?

You’d almost think that Henry Abbott was targeting me personally. Put a subtitle like he did - Ballistic: The New Science of Injury Free Athletic Performance - and you wouldn’t be wrong. It’s largely the story of basketball, tech, and the quest for bigger, stronger, and faster, framed in the story of P3, Dr. Marcus Elliott’s mecca of performance. I’ve known Dr. Elliott for years and watched his work from afar as he’s grown his influence inside the game.

Without spoiling the book, Abbott’s created a very similar structure to Moneyball, Michael Lewis’ book of (gasp!) twenty years ago that surfaced analytics to the public consciousness. In much the same way, if you follow basketball closely, especially the work of Abbott, Gasaway, Hollinger, and Goldsberry, none of this will be that new to you. However, the inside look at Elliott and P3 is much like what we saw when Billy Beane threw open the doors to the A’s front office. I can even see a movie and Brad Pitt might end up playing Elliott as he did with Beane.

Even if you’re not a hoops fan, this is one you should read if you’re interested in the behind the scenes and what’s being done in basketball circles to do what I rant about here - reducing injuries and keeping the biggest stars on the court. The NBA has rightly taken flak for their workload rules, but stars are key to their media machine and seeing LeBron or Steph on the road shouldn’t be a hit or miss thing, especially at current ticket prices. More than that, they’ve opened up “ballistic movement” to the masses. (This video gives a great taste of the book and there’s a long video of both Abbott and Elliott at Sloan that’s well worth watching.)

This book is going to be big, I think. It’s well written, well constructed, and takes a complex topic and makes it accessible even for those new to sports science. I highly recommend it and hope that baseball takes a few lessons from what they’re doing. Imagine, baseball could have had all this to itself, if it had just tried. On to the injuries:

SHOHEI OHTANI, DH/P, LAD (sprained elbow)

A question I get a lot is whether Shohei Ohtani will pitch this season. My answer has, until yesterday, been an unequivocal yes. That changed, slightly, on a talk with a trusted source who’s seen Ohtani throwing recently. “He’s not throwing with intent, but as if he’s just getting loose.” That’s what I think is happening here. I believe now that Ohtani has become Plan B and that he’s valuable enough to the Dodgers just by existing, let alone hitting, and never mind the pitching. His contract value? Already paid for by the increased franchise value and future value of flat owning the Japanese market.

But another thing someone said to me this spring in Arizona came back to me. “Ohtani’s not going to forget how to pitch,” he said, watching another pitcher who was coming back from Tommy John surgery. This is true and if Ohtani’s doing touch-and-feel pens to get or keep that, good. The Dodgers should be getting Clayton Kershaw back soon, but who knows how long that will last? The Dodgers have options but the question is how does Ohtani fit in?

My guess is that Kershaw, who was dominant in his latest rehab start, is going to get them through the first half without having to spin up Ohtani, even sticking with a six-day rotation. Assuming they get back one of Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell, that gets them back to a place where Ohtani could start to dial up. Is mid-season the plan they’ve had all along, well hidden? Maybe, but we have all the same issues of “why?” and “how?”

Here’s another thing to ponder: Ohtani can’t do a standard rehab assignment. Let’s say the Dodgers altered the schedule enough to where he could chopper over to Cucamonga, pitch a couple innings of a day game in the desert, then back to Dodger to DH. That’s not legal, though I think MLB and the PA could work something out. If he just does sim games, that’s something and should be enough, but what if he “summed backwards?” On his throw day, instead of starting a game, he finishes it. He comes in for the sixth or seventh, pitchers to his count, then lets the pen close if needed. He’s got closer stuff, so closing a game shouldn’t be an issue. It’s losing his bat that’s more a problem and I’ll leave it to others to figure the cost on that.

More below on Teoscar Hernandez, Shota Imanaga, Ronald Acuna, and more, but hey, if five bucks isn’t worth it, times are hard, I get it. Thanks for reading this far.