Under The Knife 5/7/21

Free Friday: All New, All Injuries, No Filler

About a decade ago, I did a study for an NBA team to try and figure out why injuries happened and whether they could be predicted. The answer was no, but there were some simple things that could measure risk. I can’t give you the whole thing - proprietary, even after this long - but simple things that happened in game went a long way towards establishing that risk. In baseball, there’s not quite the simple things, but one that is just that simple is getting hit by a pitch. The injury risk on those goes up with increases in the number of times, which has largely been a function of a small number of players willing to get hit or some that just had a quirky stance - Jeff Bagwell comes to mind here, and if he’d been a bit worse for wear on his hands, maybe he wouldn’t have been as good.

In 2021, this particular outcome is up significantly and it goes hand in hand with the increase in velocity. A player who’d been hit recently used a phrase that I hadn’t heard since high school - “He was up there with a clue and a compass” - and it seems that the emphasis on stuff over command does have a cost, but to hitters. As the HBP number goes up, the number of injuries should roughly go up in concert. Sometimes - Mookie Betts - a player gets lucky and sometimes they don’t, ending up with a broken hand, knee, or face.

Yes, this might be a quirk of the first month, but the more players on both sides of the ball that I speak with, the less I think that. “He throws 99 but has no idea how to pitch” is one quote from a hitter, while “I’m throwing as hard as I can and if I’m establishing the inside and someone gets hit, that’s part of the game” is one on the other side. Neither will back down.

The problem is, we’re going to see more injuries if that’s the case. Hitters will go down, probably some good ones, ones that have some edge from pushing pitchers off that inside corner, and that’s not going to help the game. This is one area where there can be immediate changes. MLB can’t just wave a wand and say “don’t hit batters”, but here’s an interesting idea - a second HBP means a pitcher is pulled immediately. The three batter rule is waived, the reliever gets extra time, and a pitcher can be shifted from the taxi squad so there’s no loss. Pitches will get away, but look at the best pitchers and you’ll see this wouldn’t be a significant issue.

On the hitter side, they could wear more or better padding. Umpires would have to enforce the “try to get out of the way rule” and not only call those Conforto plays, but give a cost to hitters that do it. If it means less injuries, MLB should be glad to do it as long as it doesn’t stick hitters arms into the zone. There does need to be some fear, but anyone that’s taken one off a pad knows there’s still some pain. It’s a fine line to keep the game intact as well as the bones.

Let’s hope I don’t have to write about too many of those. As for today’s Free Friday, it’s all new, so let’s get to it:

Byron Buxton OF MIN (strained hip)

If you felt a sense of deja vu watching Byron Buxton pull up running down the line to first, you weren’t alone. It looked a lot like Luis Robert, maybe not quite as clearly in pain, but the reaction, the hopping, and the quick exit all felt eerily similar. Just watch the reaction as Buxton pulls up* - there’s no grab to the hamstring, or even to the hip flexor area.

The Twins said after the game that it was a hip injury, though they didn’t get detailed. All signs point to it being similar, if not identical, in location to Robert’s injury, though it doesn’t appear to be as severe and that’s the major question now. A minor strain would have Buxton out a few days and that’s a ton of value at his current pace, where he’s the WAR leader for all of baseball. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Twins be conservative here and push Buxton to the IL, hoping the ten days of rest and treatment will have him back fully healthy.

The bigger question is whether this is coincidence or whether this is a part of the larger pattern of upper leg injuries we’re seeing way up in the game. There’s no current explanation and not even any good theories for why this might be happening. A month into the season, we should have seen an adjustment or at least a slowdown if it was an off-season or training camp change. At this stage, something’s just different and MLB is not equipped to deal with sudden change.

*Also, could someone tell me if there’s a way to directly link to MLB.com videos, or do I have to link to the page as I did above? I don’t mind giving them the traffic, especially since it’s their video, but it seems like there’s a better solution.

George Springer OF JAY (strained quad)

The Jays had to boomerang George Springer back to the IL with a quad strain. What’s not clear is whether this is a recurrence of the previous strain, a new strain, or a complication from the original. Springer has clearly not been moving well, but a source tells me the more concerning issue is that Springer hasn’t been recovering well. He’s coming up sore quickly after the game and it doesn’t abate, even with treatment, which is what forced those days off and eventually the IL move.

The move makes it possible to bring Springer back as soon as next week, but his response is going to key this whole thing. At some level, the team is going to have to figure out what Springer can’t do, a rough spot considering he just signed a big deal for six years and passed a physical. If Springer is going to shift into a pure DH role sooner than later, there’s going to be a lot of people questioning why he was signed, but to be fair, there was simply no indication of any sort of problem in baseball terms. I certainly don’t know how the physical went, but we can all tell he passed.

The way this has gone has been bad for everyone and the secrecy isn’t helping. Most Jays fans don’t read columns like this and in reading the mainstream coverage, it mostly comes down to “big dollar free agent signing failing early,” which is true, but shouldn’t be the whole story. MLB, teams, and players need to get their sides of the story out because it’s being told anyway.

Joey Votto 1B CIN (fractured thumb)

Albert Pujols is a free agent and Joey Votto is hurt. I know those things aren’t connected and that Albert Pujols is more likely to either stay near his current home or go ring shopping (or both), I’ll venture to say that Cincinnati is a fit, at least for a while.

Votto is going to miss at least a month with a fractured left thumb and it will be interesting to see how Votto comes back. Thumb injuries challenge hitters in that grip is key to bat control, so we tend to see more swing-and-miss action when a player comes back, but isn’t fully healthy or at least fully adjusted to the situation. Votto has elite bat control, so will he be better at this, or worse than others? There’s not any great comps, because Votto’s skill set is so uncommon in the modern game.

Votto won’t need surgery or really any special treatment. Bones heal, but it’s only time that does it despite a lot of trial and effort. There’s almost nothing the Reds can do but wait for it to heal up and hope that Votto doesn’t struggle when he comes back.

Carlos Carrasco SP NYM (strained hamstring)

The 60-day IL is an odd thing. Yes, it’s significantly longer than the 15- or 10-day IL and therefore would seemingly be reserved for the worst injuries. It’s not. It’s merely a different list, one that didn’t change when the 15 became the 10 and that has some different roster ramifications. That means Carlos Carrasco being shifted to the list doesn’t automatically mean that something’s gone horribly wrong.

First, Carrasco has already been on the 10-day list for the length of the season, about 40 days at this point. Second, Carrasco went out on a rehab assignment and his strained hamstring didn’t respond well, which meant his return timeline shifted a couple weeks back, almost exactly where the 60-day mark drops. The Mets clearly noticed and shifted him over, costing them almost nothing.

That’s not to say this is good. The strained hamstring should have healed by now and Carrasco should be in the Mets rotation. Sources within the team are frustrated by this, since there’s been no setback, just a slow recovery. Carrasco threw a six inning sim game, but the same sources said it didn’t look ‘major league quality’.

Carrasco now has until the end of the month to heal up, though as always the team can keep him on the IL until he’s ready. At 34 and not far removed from a lymphoma battle, Carrasco’s injury struggle could be a defining one for both himself and for this Mets rotation and they don’t seem to be handling it well.

Anthony Rendon 3B LAA (bruised knee)

We all saw what happened with Anthony Rendon - a foul ball off the knee/leg and negative x-rays. That’s good, but as I said on Wednesday, the issue now is the pain and swelling that happens afterward. It’s great that nothing is broken, but it doesn’t help it feel any better now. There’s enough of a concern that the bone bruise to the top of his patella will linger that the team pushed him to the IL.

The Angels have a lot of issues beyond missing Rendon and with the retro, Rendon could come back next Friday (14). Releasing Albert Pujols is the biggest news, but this might be the start of a real shift for the Angels that could see Perry Minassian making more moves to change this roster. Rendon might end up being one of those moves, though I don’t see the Angels allowed to go the full Astro just yet.

Quick Cuts:

Jacob deGrom threw well on Thursday and he’s on track for his Sunday start, though the Mets will obviously be watching him very, very closely … Corbin Burnes could be back by the end of the week, according to the Brewers. We’ll see how his time off affects one of the best starts of all time … Tyler Beede is the first of the Tommy John class of 2020 to go on an official rehab assignment. We’ll see if others follow, but this is a boost for the Giants … Cody Bellinger’s fracture isn’t healing slowly, as some reports say. It’s healing, but the fracture is slightly more than the ‘hairline’ it was originally presented as, so more time. He’s not running much yet, so he not only could be a ways off, he could need at least a few minor league games to test his leg and tune up his swing … Bryce Harper’s face has healed, but his wrist was involved in that nasty HBP as well and that remains sore. The Phillies hope to have him back this weekend after he’s taken batting practice a couple times … Jake Odorizzi is throwing well in the pen, ahead of what is expected to be a two start minor league rehab stint with the cross-town Skeeters … Stephen Strasburg got raves for his two inning sim game, but will need at least three more such sessions. The question now is whether he’ll head to Rochester to do it or if he’ll stick with sim games … Buster Posey had some hamstring tightness, so the Giants pulled him early to prevent some base running ahead of an off day. A source tells me they don’t feel he’ll miss much time, but that they can mix in an off day from catching this weekend as well if need be … Gio Urshela was scheduled for an MRI on Friday, so that’s probably already happened. That’s worrisome after he was pulled last night. Watching, I don’t see where the injury happened. That usually means it’s not a ligament .. Travis d’Arnaud will have surgery to fix his injured thumb and what he has will tell us a lot about the rest of his season. If it’s a simple UCL reconstruction, especially if it’s the commonly used InternalBrace, he should be back even earlier than the 60-day will allow. If not, what else? I’m watching to see who does the surgery for a clue … Miles Mikolas didn’t get deep (2 1/3 innings) in his 60 pitch-limit rehab start in Memphis. Durham (TBR) touched him a bit, but he did get his work in and will progress to his next rehab start on schedule … The Mets decided to push Brandon Nimmo to the IL after he couldn’t get back in the 3-game cushion for a retro move. He’s likely to be out the minimum … David Price is back on a mound as part of his hamstring rehab. He’s slightly ahead of Tony Gonsolin (shoulder) which means he could get some starts … Want to feel a bit better about Luis Robert, White Sox fans? Read this … On the anniversary of Kerry Wood’s 20 strikeout game, here’s what he’s up to now.

Substack is adding a new tool and it might come in handy here this fall. I know many of you are single-sport people and don’t want the NFL info, so this new “sections” thing could work. I’m still learning about it and I’m not committed to doing NFL here (or anywhere) this year. We’ll see, but it might enhance things.

Thanks for the feedback on the UTK Flashes. I’ll still be circumspect with them, but I think most people want the best news when necessary and trust me not to flood them. I also took the notes to heart that Flashes should be subscriber only. I think what I’ll do next time is send it out and then make it public some hours later, so that I can get some push from it. Hopefully, everyone feels they’re getting value for the money and time.

Big article coming next week from David Barshop. You’re going to love this look back at the heart of the golden era of sabermetrics.