Under The Knife 5/23/24
In lieu of writing something here as normal, I’m going to point to a piece from friend of the blog Mark Simon of SIS. He and his data-collecting colleagues at SIS did a piece on pitchers being hit by batted balls that bears reading. Go read it, I’ll wait.
This is the first time I’ve seen (or knew that it was collected) data from as far back as 2015. I’m curious how much further it goes back and would love to see that batter foot data! That the increase in number and severity isn’t as much as I perceived is good knowledge, but that perception now has to be questioned. If it’s not more and it’s not worse, why are we - or am I? - noticing it more and thinking it’s a problem. I’m not watching more baseball than I was in 2016 or having less data.
A reminder that with Indy 500 weekend (and rain threatening even that schedule), I’ll be off Friday and Monday is TBD. I’m always - always - available in the case of big injuries and UTK Flashes.
If you need something to watch in the meantime, here’s the SABR panel the founders of Baseball Prospectus did back in March. Yeah, I wear suits now. So let’s get to it:
XANDER BOGAERTS, IF SDP (fractured shoulder)
After an awkward dive on Monday night, the Padres waited to see how Xander Bogaerts would respond. His left (non-throwing) shoulder got no better and he ended up having more imaging done on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, the results were known and while they weren’t good, it could have been worse. Per Kevin Acee, there’s a fracture but no labrum or ligament damage. There’s no timetable and there’s one big fact missing.
What we don’t know is which bone is broken. Initial x-rays done on Monday didn’t show anything and the shoulder was said to be stable then, so my guess is this is in the shoulder blade (scapula.) An injury to the collarbone would be more common, but would have been known almost immediately. An injury inside the glenoid fossa (the cup of the shoulder) would have been paired with soft tissue damage in virtually every case. The scapula is a big bone which is more mobile than most due to its function, so it has to heal completely, especially for a throwing athlete. (Yes, it’s his non-throwing shoulder, but that affects the throwing motion enough that we can’t ignore the effect on throwing and mechanics.)
While the Padres are saying “out indefinitely,” we know that bones heal. That t-shirt would be in the core range if I had merch here, alongside “A Sprain Is A Tear” and “Hire More Medical Staff.” Maybe #PaddedGlove. There’s no reason to think that Bogaerts’ bones are any different or that it should take long past the normal 6-8 weeks it does with anyone and almost any bone. Add in some time to ramp back up and I believe Bogaerts makes it back not just this season, but in late July or early August.
Let’s be clear - this is not a situation that’s in any way analogous to Fernando Tatis Jr. His shoulder was chronically unstable due to a number of factors. Even with the fracture, that’s not the case for Bogaerts. Aside from it being shoulder injuries to Padres players, there’s not much in common here and nothing to learn from a comparison.
In the meantime, the Padres do have options, especially having just brought in Luis Arraez for completely different reasons. Arraez could play a lot more at 2B, though adjusting both Jackson Merrill and Tyler Wade could move around as well. I’m pretty curious about the idea of Merrill shifting and getting more regular playing time given his age and how well he’s played in the last couple seasons. I tried to think of someone who shifted to second early in their career for this kind of roster reason, then back to short, but couldn’t think of any.
FRANCISCO ALVAREZ, C NYM (sprained thumb/rehab)
Being a Mets fan is hard. There always seems to be something and even away from Queens, they have that “something is about to go wrong” intensity, combined with a passionate love of their team. Let’s give them some good news, as Francisco Alvarez is healing up from his UCL reconstruction. Yes, UCL, but it’s the one in the thumb, not the elbow. We’ve often seen these come back in as little as a month, due to the use of InternalBrace. As a catcher, it could be a bit more complex, but Alvarez has been swinging for a while and is ready to start seeing live hitting.
A source tells me that going to batting practice/live hitting, versus a very controlled sequence from tees and machines, is likely to be a very quick stage of the rehab. If his thumb responds well, Alvarez is likely to head out on a rehab assignment quickly. The key here is that he’ll be DH only. That could accelerate his return to the Mets lineup, though I’m told there’s really no physical reason he couldn’t also catch. That will come slightly later and the ramp up doesn’t have to be done in Binghamton or Syracuse.
My guess is we could see that rehab assignment happen by the start of next week with a return to DH as soon as the following weekend. That would mean the surgery shaved about two weeks off the estimates on the low end and almost a month off what it used to be with similar surgeries that didn’t use the bracing. That’s good for the Mets, for Alvarez, and for the game.
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