Under The Knife 5/17/23
This Is Not A Spoon
The concept of “starting pitcher” isn’t what you think it is. If you go back to the beginnings of baseball, when pitching had a far different job description than it does now, there weren’t starting pitchers. There was a pitcher, one that usually did the job for the entire game and almost always the bulk of it. The pitcher was a starting pitcher in the sense that he was in the “starting lineup” the same way a shortstop or a catcher was. It was only later that “starting pitcher” was divorced from starting lineup by definition and practice.
Part of the issue now is that the concept exists as part of a known system, even as its value is dying. Phone booths, dial tones, and party lines barely exist and have largely been wiped out of our telecommunications vocabulary. That’s happened across industries and it’s interesting to see where remnants remain. Kids that play “I Spy” still start with “is it bigger than a breadbox” despite even someone my age having never had a breadbox in the home.
Vocabulary - at least an agreed, common vocabulary - is a major problem in pitching. I did a whole chapter in The Science of Baseball trying to find common definitions for pitchers. How can we explain a sweeper when most don’t realize a sinker doesn’t drop and a curve does? That makes wiping out the starting pitcher tougher. We all know what that is, but a bulk reliever? At least an opener is easy to figure out.
But if we try to replace the five-man rotation with something more akin to a lineup, it gets tougher because those concepts don’t overlap. A lineup is merely there to apportion opportunities, one of the major learnings from sabermetrics. (Sabermetrics isn’t even a word that Substack’s spellcheck knows!) For pitchers, doing the same should be the goal. I want Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to get the most opportunities to get outs, in the same way I’d like Pete Alonso to get more at-bats than Tommy Pham.
The problem is that I can’t just set a lineup. Rest is necessary, but not necessarily equal. I could, in theory, write Alonso’s name in every day at the four slot, the way Buck Showalter largely has. He shouldn’t overly tire and if he’s behind Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil all year, I can tell you how the plate appearances will look.
The issue for pitchers is that innings, pitches, even outs don’t work as a parameter. One inning can be almost anything for a pitcher. Three outs is an inning, but how many pitches, how many high stress, what kind of fatigue, and how many other things? There’s still no battery icon on a pitcher’s shoulder, telling me he needs to recharge. Until we have a solid workload measure, we’re left guessing, hoping that starters can go every fifth day, that relievers can go on who knows what pattern if not overworked, and that there’s enough depth to make up for it when someone breaks.
There’s a lot of room for fixing this, but we don’t even have the vocabulary yet. That means we’re not even close to the start of this transition and the injury numbers bear that out. On to the injuries:
JAZZ CHISHOLM, OF MIA (sprained toe)
I get more practice writing about turf toe on the NFL side, but Jazz Chisholm is going to learn quickly what those guys already know - it’s painful and problematic, especially for speed players, but the worst part is that it lingers. Turf toe is merely the nickname for a sprained toe and almost always the great toe. It got its name when linemen on the new artificial turf began having the sprain since their planted feet couldn’t take a divot. Instead, the ligament sprained.
Remember though the NFL wasn’t first to turf, but they do have more activities that lead to the injury. For Chisholm, his injury was quirky and not the normal way that turf toe occurs. He got it caught in the padding of the outfield fence, putting his body weight on it as he tried to make a late inning play in a tied game. Imaging and a visit to a specialist showed the Marlins that Chisholm should hit the IL, but there’s little clarity on when he might be ready.
Let’s be clear - the turf (Shaw B1K, to be specific) had nothing to do with the injury, but it could be an issue for how quickly he can come back. The turf doesn’t give in the way grass does, which makes the standard way of protecting the toe - a hard shank in the insole - more noticeable. The shoe doesn’t give, the turf doesn’t give, making a hard ride for the player. Chisholm’s speed isn’t his only skill, but this may be a tougher one for him to come back from than some. Don’t be surprised if this one goes longer and has some stutters along the way.
KUMAR ROCKER, SP TEX (sprained elbow)
All credit to Bob Nightengale, but this tweet is incorrect. Kumar Rocker had an issue with the Mets about his shoulder, which was addressed with a minor surgery and which I know to be a labrum issue. The fact that he’ll have Tommy John surgery, after nearly a year of pitching well, is unfortunate, but also what nearly a third of MLB pitchers have. The injury came without warning, as it often does, with Rocker pitching extremely well at Down East.
The key here, from Evan Grant, is that Rocker’s UCL sprain was an acute injury. That means the ligament more snapped than wore down, though there was assuredly some damage before. Given the low workload Rocker appears to have been managed with, this is likely the “one bad pitch” storyline, where the ligament just gave. Given the Rangers’ long term investment in pitching, this is a tough one.
The expectation is that Rocker will see Dr. Keith Meister, the team ortho, for the surgery and that he’ll miss the remainder of the season and part of next rehabbing from standard Tommy John. The hope that both Rocker and his Vanderbilt teammate, Jack Leiter, could be anchors of the rotation for years to come still exists, as most will come back just fine from TJS and moreover, most don’t lose out on development. It’s not a lost year rehabbing, in any way. With his previous shoulder issue, there’s even more concern about Rocker’s durability, but it will be a while before we know how that plays out.
VLADIMIR GUERRERO JR, 1B TOR (inflamed knee)