Under The Knife 5/16/26

Being Productive Matters

It’s a different game than it was in 2004, when Buster Olney first wrote about productive outs. I can’t remember if Olney actually developed the idea, the stat, or was just the hype man, but while I’ve always been a fan of Olney, I was embedded in Baseball Prospectus orthodoxy at the time and had grown up in the game around coaches who despised giving up outs. The combination of the two made me recoil at productive outs and it was quickly Fisked and faded, but not entirely.

We still the influence of productive outs and even the term from time to time. In my work at NTangible, I’ll often see the term used positively, even something to celebrate! That celebration? It's usually for a groundout to the right side or a bunt that "moves the runner." We get the hat tip, the dugout claps, maybe even a standing ovation in Omaha. But here’s the thing: the numbers don’t care about your intent. They care about what happened. And what happened, in most so-called "productive out" situations, is that you reduced your team’s chances of scoring runs. Sometimes significantly.

Take the classic: runner on second, no outs. Batter rolls one to the right side, runner moves to third. Productive, right? No. That play lowers your run expectancy from 1.07 to 0.90. It’s a –0.17 run loss, which means even if that run scores later on, you've already given away value and you’ve done it early, with no real pressure. You're not escaping a jam. You're reducing your team’s scoring odds with the out and choosing to pretend it’s good because you like the aesthetic of movement.

It’s not just bunts or groundouts either. Sacrifice flies turn a base state with 1.32 expected runs into exactly one run. Sounds good until you realize that’s a –0.32 drop. You got the run, sure, but the inning shrunk. You traded a potential rally for a run.

And here’s the worst part: none of this even accounts for the opportunity cost. Every time you tell a player to bunt or hit behind the runner, you're removing the possibility that they might hit a double. You’re choosing a guaranteed small loss over the possibility of a big gain.

There are rare situations — extra innings on the road, a pitcher who can’t hit, a struggling offense playing for one — where that trade makes sense. But as a rule? Celebrating a “productive out” is like congratulating a student for filling the bubbles on the Scantron. It’s not that effort doesn’t matter. It’s that outcome matters more.

At NTangible, we measure the ability of players to perform in the clutch. One thing we’ve found is that players praised for “doing the little things” often internalize that as limiting risk. That mindset can kill opportunity. You don’t need hitters who play scared and proud of it. You need ones who know that 27 outs is all you get and that giving one away, even for a polite round of applause, is rarely the smart play.

Want to teach the mental game? Start by killing the lie that failure can be productive.

Part of this issue is bigger: why are we still having to fight the battles of 2004 again in 2025? If it was bad then, it’s worse now. Let’s get to the injuries:

ROKI SASAKI, SP LAD (shoulder impingement)

This isn’t a new issue for Roki Sasaki. He had something very similar last season in Japan and if there’s a positive, it’s that he came back fine last time.

There’s going to be a lot made that this issue came up right after he pitched on five days rest for the first time this season. Look, there’s no way from out here that anyone can say whether a day made a difference one way or the other. It’s a data point, yes, and a change prior to an injury, but I’d look at it more as much less granular than we’d need to really evaluate it. How was it on Day 1? Day 3? Was there more or less inflammation or movement deficit, and yes, those are normal post-start.

Shoulder impingement occurs when the rotator cuff tendons get compressed between the humeral head and the acromion - the bony roof of the shoulder. For a pitcher, especially one like Sasaki who operates at the absolute upper limits of velocity, this can disrupt mechanics, sap strength, and lead to compensations that create further risk downstream.

Sasaki’s delivery, known for its clean lines and explosive late acceleration, can ironically contribute to impingement if there’s even minor inflammation or fatigue. The faster the arm moves, the less margin there is for error in timing and joint spacing.

In 2024, Sasaki’s symptoms reportedly led to reduced usage and cautious workload management by Chiba Lotte. That was the right move, not just to keep him available for the Dodgers, but because it was needed. Impingement isn’t a structural tear, but it can become one if left unchecked. The treatment is usually conservative: rest, anti-inflammatories, physical therapy, and mechanical adjustments to restore scapular rhythm and space for the cuff to operate.

For Sasaki, the key will be building durability without losing what makes him special. The stuff is elite. Now it’s about keeping the shoulder quiet enough to let it shine.

Ah, let’s make this one free today! Here’s what you’ve been missing if you’re not a subscriber:

BRYCE MILLER, SP SEA (inflamed elbow)
LOGAN GILBERT, SP SEA (strained forearm)
GEORGE KIRBY, SP SEA (strained shoulder)

Those names? Sixty percent of the expected rotation this season. No team is ever going to make it through a full season with just five - I mean, it’s possible, but very unlikely right now - but the Mariners are already well past that now and things are starting to look Zepbound thin for the rotation. (That’s not an ad, but I’d take some of that sweet, sweet Lilly money if they’d like.)

Bryce Miller is the latest, shut down with elbow inflammation and hit with anti-inflammatories because, well, si hoc, ergo illud. The M’s do seem confident that this is short term, which suggests they not only know what it isn’t, but what it is. Miller’s last start was terrible and that this is happening also suggests this isn’t new, but an issue that’s maybe coming out of management for some reason and this IL stint and therapy is designed to pull him back in. On one hand, manageable and on the other, having to be managed.

If you want to feel better about Miller, Logan Gilbert is the path forward. Gilbert had another pen session and came out positive, which means the next step is likely a rehab start. He went 25 high intent pitches with reports he was mid nineties. Getting him back by mid-June is the path now, a bit longer than initially expected, but if the Grade I strain has healed well, he’ll be a nice upgrade to the rotation … or rather, getting it back to where it was expected to be.

George Kirby is even closer, with one more rehab start between him and the short drive back to Seattle. His last start was mixed in results, but he got his work in, hit his pitch goal, and didn’t have issues with recovery. He won’t make it back to test the 200 inning mark this year, and historically, that’s not a good forward indicator. I’m watching whether or not his normally solid command and control is there in this final rehab start more than any other factor.

BEN JOYCE, RP LAA (strained shoulder)

The world doesn’t need another eulogy for a right arm, but here we are. Ben Joyce, the Angels’ high-octane cannon, has vanished beneath the surgical ether. “Shoulder discomfort,” they called it, which is like calling a shark attack a “bit of a scrape.” Now he’s done for the season and maybe for good, because the baseball gods have no mercy for the fastball freaks. No specifics yet. The team keeps mum, like this is the Manhattan Project and not something that the fans should be trusted to know.

Joyce might have been destined to break with his stuff. He’d already gone under the knife for Tommy John in college. He came back, hotter than ever, shoving 104 mph down hitters’ throats like a madman with nothing to lose. But there’s always something to lose. The UCL went first, now the shoulder. Next it’s just the soul left to carve up, I guess.

You want to know who did it, what they fixed, what’s left? Me too. The suits upstairs, the ones who pencil in pitchers and erase their names in red, have nothing to say. Meanwhile, Arte Moreno’s circus loses another act. The Angels’ pitching staff, already a haunted house of broken toys, loses another. High velocity, high attrition - no one learns, no one cares, the cycle spins.

For Joyce, this is the price of playing Icarus with a baseball. And for the rest of us? Just another pitcher disappearing down the transaction list, another story with the ending we all saw coming. But is it the end? The only hope is that the doctors can put him back together, rather than the past fate of so many potential stars.

JARLIN SUSANO, SP WAS (sprained elbow)

Dave Martinez isn’t wrong in saying Jarlin Susano having a Grade I UCL sprain is a “best case scenario.” It could certainly be worse, but I would think the best case would be not having a sprain at all, or being able to pitch as one of an organization’s top prospects. Susano won’t be doing that for a while, but surgery isn’t immediately taking him out for a year plus, so if Martinez wants to call it best case, I’ll allow it.

There are more and more pitchers with small sprains trying to rehab through them. There’s a couple reasons for this, mostly that they can be caught earlier. There’s a whole school of thought now that UCL tears are almost never acute and that the lack of imaging just made them seem more sudden. I’m leaning that way myself and think new and better imaging techniques will tell us more in the near future.

For Susano, this isn’t great news. It could go a number of ways. We saw Kyle Bradish rehab and come back, only to pop the ligament a month later. On the other hand, all reports are positive for Jared Jones, who had a very similar sprain. The downside here is that Susano is doing something - too much stress, too much workload - that is damaging his elbow, reducing his chance to make an impact in DC.

CLAYTON KERSHAW, SP LAD (sprained toe/strained shoulder)

Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut on Saturday. Not much can be taken away from five starts, bouncing between levels, other than he got through it and the toe, the shoulder, and the back all held up. There’s not going to be a significant limitation on his count, though I don’t think he’ll get near 100. The more efficiency the better, to be sure.

At just 30 innings last year, it’s tough to read anything from it. Kershaw is another year older and a couple surgeries later than he was then, but the stuff was still there, or appeared to be. His stats weren’t the same, but small sample size throws everything off. At worst, the Dodgers need some innings at this point. Matt Sauer is P13 on the chart and that’s danger zone right there, even with depth at Triple-A available. (It is a testament to their pitching selection and development that these injuries haven’t put them in a worse position.) Only Landon Knack went over 100 innings last year of their current pitchers, so the second half could get worse!

I’m going to have more on this soon, but for Kershaw, the question is whether last year’s BABIP jump was the luck we often ascribe to it or whether he’s just getting hit harder. Our understanding of it all changed with Statcast data. Knowing not just the EV but launch angle and park effects is much more accurate that BABIP alone, but you don’t come here for the math.

Quick Cuts:

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa collided and while it appeared worse for Correa, Buxton was the one who may be more affected. He’s in concussion protocol and could go to the 7-day IL … Ronald Acuna (knee) went 2 for 3, had an outfield assist, and “looked great” per one scout. He’ll continue to play with Gwinnett through the weekend, but could be back ahead of the calendar flip … Spencer Strider (hamstring) will come off the IL early next week, against the Nationals, though what day hasn’t been decided ahead of some roster juggling. His sim game had some troubling notes about decreased velocity, so my guess is his response to that is being watched … The O’s won’t get Jordan Westburg (hamstring) back as quickly as hoped. He’s had a setback and has stopped his running progression … Chris Martin underwent an MRI on his elbow and word is good news for the reliever and the Rangers. We’ll see how quickly he can come back … Jose Quintana heads to the IL with shoulder inflammation. The Brewers will use Tobias Myers while he’s out, though indications are it may be near-minimum depending on his response to treatment … Paul Blackburn (knee) needs a couple more rehab starts before returning to the Mets. With Frankie Montas (lat) also making progress, the Mets are in for a bit of a rotation boost and some decisions … Mitchell Parker took a comebacker off his leg and came out. The Nats will have to see how the bruise affects him over the next couple days.

Let me clarify what I mean by failure not being productive. There’s a phrase that went around a couple years ago, credited to Nelson Mandela: “I never lose. I either win or learn.” That can certainly be true, but part of that is learning and not repeating the same mistakes. I acknowledge there are situations where a sac bunt is the right play, or at least the right result, but reducing the opportunity to win again and again is not learning and far from productive.