Under The Knife 5/13/24
Super Magick
There was a nice excerpt of Andy McCullogh’s new book on Clayton Kershaw in the LA Times (and another in The Athletic) this weekend and it fit with my “this didn’t exist” take from Friday. In it, Kershaw’s pushed to change his curve and find a change, but he’s basically given descended wisdom - albeit from Sandy Koufax - rather than data. It’s a wonder Kershaw or anyone was able to change pitches this way effectively, since the only data they had was the hitter’s response.
The game has changed a lot in just Kershaw’s career. The Dodgers wouldn’t just send their next hot prospect off to develop a change up with an old pitcher, unless that guy had a Trackman and a bunch of cameras. 2009, when the anecdote happens, is just not that long ago.
Things are always changing - and yes, bat tracking will be huge, once we figure out how to read it - and McCullogh does a nice job of illustrating just how much. I look forward to reading the rest of the book this summer. For now, on to the injuries:
SHOHEI OHTANI, DH LAD (inflamed back)
The number one predictor of future injury is past injuries, but it doesn’t work the way most people think. There’s not as much of a pattern to it as one would think. Yes, a previous shoulder injury or hamstring injury will often recur, but overall, it’s not necessarily a recurrence that’s going to happen, which is why predicting injury is so difficult (if not impossible.)
Which is not to say that Shohei Ohtani’s sore back is anything more than a sore back. The guy swings hard and, don’t forget, is doing a throwing rehab on top of his normal workload. He’s done it before, so it’s not a complete unknown and certainly well monitored. He’s also had ankle and knee issues, not to mention the elbow so while Ohtani’s been a nearly every day guy for a couple years, he wasn’t before. Some of that is how the Angels managed him, but it will be interesting to see just how small things affect him. This back injury should be minor and forgettable, but notable.
Why notable? At age-29 and signed to be a Dodger forever, the healthier he is, the better his counting stats look. Most players can’t rack up actual records - though Ichiro Suzuki’s long, durable career allowed him to be one of few and he’s certainly a different type than Ohtani. Ohtani will crack 200 homers this season, but could he reach 400? 500? Will he pitch enough to get to 100 wins and if not, does that actually hurt his Hall of Fame case? (Doesn’t matter, he’s in.)
Subscribers will learn about two key Giants injuries, two Mariner pitcher situations, managing a top catcher’s knee, and much more.