Under The Knife 5/1/23
Judge Not
Lamar Jackson signed a five-year deal that will average $52 million per year. Put in the caveats on non-guaranteed contracts and the weird salary cap machinations that make those contracts look weird, even fake, and it’s still a lot of money on an AAV basis. Just days ago, Jalen Hurts signed a deal at $51 million. The number ten deal is $40m a year, and Joe Burrow is on-deck for his big payday to knock that off.
Yet it’s baseball that gets the attention for big salaries somehow. The salary cap in the NFL and NBA hasn’t held salaries down compared to baseball, but that’s because baseball has been losing share of revenue, something they didn’t gain back at all in the last CBA.
With Shohei Ohtani ready to cash in, Mike Trout’s 2019 contract that averaged $35.5 million isn’t going to be the biggest another year. It will likely be second as even with Aaron Judge and Xander Bogaerts’ deals done, baseball AAV hasn’t moved much. Joey Votto’s deal from 2014 is still top 20. In the NFL, one of their top 20 is more than two years old and that’s the outlier of Kirk Cousins, who’s deal ends after this season.
It’s easy to look at NFL deals or even the huge crowd in Kansas City at last week’s draft and see how the revenue is growing in football. Sadly, I dont see the same in baseball. There’s no way to make the MLB Draft anything like that, or even like the NBA. There’s been no gain from the Endeavor minor league deal, which I had hoped would put a push on the minor league talent. Marquee Network (Cubs) has been doing some interesting experiments with minor league games, but I’m loathe to put much faith in the RSN’s growing the game longer term.
I don’t know what’s to be done, but I am looking forward to Ohtani’s deal being one of the biggest sports stories for about a month. The Winter Meetings will be in Nashville, so maybe expansion will be a topic, but the big contract for the unique star might make baseball the big story in the midst of the NFL’s playoff push and the first expanded NCAA Football playoffs. That’s good for ball.
For now, on to the injuries:
AARON JUDGE, OF NYY (strained hip)
That’s one awkward slide. (How awkward is it?) So awkward that Aaron Judge hurt both hands and both hips. Johnny Carson might date me, but the format works. For Judge, I’ve watched the slide 20 times and I’ll be honest, I still see how the hands/wrists got injured, but I’ll be darned if I see how the hip - let alone both hips, got strained.
The reports have all been “strain” - a muscular injury - with one quirky hip pointer that is likely wrong, but would make more sense. The muscles of the hip can certainly be strained, but usually on stretching or overexertion. A hip pointer is a painful bruise at the top of the hip and I could see that. The medical staff has also needed to rule out other issues, like hip labrum problems or a sports hernia. The focus has remained on a muscle strain, with the descriptions making this most likely a gluteus medius issue.
Judge has pain with motion, but a couple days of rest and treatment have helped. The team will hold him out through Monday in hopes that the IL won’t be necessary, but they are holding the retro move in reserve. What they haven’t done is really tested it, either with hitting, throwing, or running, or with any real heavy or quick motions, specifically twisting.
I expect them to be conservative with Judge, as they have been with most injury issues this year, but an IL move if going to put more scrutiny on an area that’s already seeing some fan discomfort and writer focus. The Yankees’ IL is pretty full, but that likely won’t stop them from pushing Judge there if they feel it’s the best course. A decision will be made by Tuesday, perhaps Monday, so those of you with weekly move leagues will have a tough decision.
JACOB DEGROM, SP TEX (inflamed elbow)