Under The Knife 5/12/23
Fixing A Mistake, St Louis edition
Let’s be clear on one thing: the signing of Willson Contreras hasn’t worked out the way the Cardinals expected, though we’re only one month into the deal. As Joe Sheehan will tell you, that’s not enough time to decide anything, let alone a long term, big dollar deal. Replacing a legend is hard enough, let alone one who functionally ran the team for a decade after Albert Pujols went west.
I’m not ready to call this one a bust yet. At worst, Contreras could be a decent backup catcher and hit enough to make DH work out. It only takes a quick look at B-Ref to understand that while Contreras has never had a full year of negative defensive value, he’s also offered up a 3 to 1 ratio of offensive to defensive value. He’s been a 3 WAR hitter for his career, so while I couldn’t find the current value of a WAR, in 2022, Ben Clemens said it was $8.5 million. Seems reasonable, if low. I’d assume with some of the big dollar contracts, 2023, when Contreras was signed, would be higher. (Mr. Clemens was kind enough to answer my question about that.)
But, let’s say the Cardinals decided they screwed up and wanted to deal Contreras. Could it be done without eating a significant portion of the contract? I asked several people in MLB front offices (and a couple that have been in the past) about that and the general answer was “anything is possible.” Enough teams need catching depth that they’d be willing to take on Contreras. Two suggested that the Yankees would be a perfect fit, especially if the Cardinals were willing to take something back that would keep the Yanks at their current payroll level.
Another suggested that the Cubs are a known fit, but that the Angels and Giants had more need. Both the Padres and Giants were mentioned, but neither have a strong need, though whether Joey Bart is the real answer in San Francisco remains to be seen. There’s few teams where Contreras wouldn’t help, if only with the bat, but most wouldn’t be willing to pay near market rate in prospects or salary to make that happen.
Overall, I agree with Bernie Miklasz on this, and I always feel better about myself when my position agrees with Bernie. The best solution, almost universally agreed on, is that whatever the Cardinals signed Contreras to do well, he still can. If they’ve learned he has weaknesses, it’s incumbent on them to minimize them and clearly communicate what they can do. If he needs another coach, so be it, as long as it’s not Yadier Molina. That would blow up the whole situation.
One other note on this - if the problem is that he’s not as good a receiver/framer, that problem goes away as soon as next year. ABS will wipe out a valued skill with the stroke of Rob Manfred’s pen. That’s terrible for some, great for others. As long as a catcher has a level of skill for actually catching the ball - tougher than most think - and can throw, the framing part should become equal for all, assuming there’s not some quirk of the Hawkeye system. If the issue is that he shouldn’t be calling pitches, that’s a simple one to fix as well, especially with PitchCom. (Actually, could a coach have the PitchCom controller in the dugout, with the pitcher and catcher having a receiver? I mean, it’s possible but I don’t know if it’s within the rules. It should be.)
For now, on to the injuries:
MAX SCHERZER, SP NYM (inflamed neck)
Max Scherzer was scratched on Wednesday and replaced by David Peterson. Peterson’s presence telegraphed that there was an issue, but it also indicates the Mets knew it was there, at least a day earlier. The issue has been described as neck spasms, but there’s some question about whether the sub-scapular muscle issue is the same issue or a separate one, or if there’s any interrelation.
My best Mets source tells me they’re two separate issues and that the current theory is that they’re directly related. Both areas involve similar nerves and pathways that are connected. If a nerve “upstream” is being impinged, everything downstream can be bothered, including the direct trapezius and the indirect (via brachial plexus) subscapularis. I’m being specifically non-technical here, so for those of you that are more medical, excuse the oversimplification. That’s what I do here.
With the assumption that the issues are interrelated, they have to figure out cause, but only if they can’t remove the symptoms. The sports part of sports medicine is often about finding the fastest solution that doesn’t do more damage. If the cause is something like a herniated disc, there’s not much that can be done aside from symptom alleviation that won’t cause a significant absence. There’s plenty of possible causes and steps before the Mets and Scherzer even consider that. The plan is that he’ll start sometime during the Nationals series, but we’ll see if that happens or if Scherzer will need an IL stint.
MAX FRIED, SP ATL (strained forearm)
KYLE WRIGHT, SP ATL (strained shoulder)